Oil revenue, distracted West, and the enduring limits of Russia’s army
MAR 20, 2026
The war in Iran has created a limited window of opportunity for the Kremlin to intensify its offensive in Ukraine. Higher oil prices are filling the budget, the crisis around Iran is diverting American attention, competition for air defence systems and ammunition is growing, and divisions within the European Union are slowing the flow of aid to Kyiv. However, this window is narrow, and it does not guarantee a military breakthrough. Spring mud season and the structural weaknesses of the Russian army will prevent any rapid shift in the balance of power on the battlefield.
The most likely outcome is that the Kremlin will continue doing what it has been doing — gradually pushing Ukrainian forces back along selected sections of the front.
The oil dividend
The war has turned high energy prices into a significant resource for Moscow. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz removed a substantial share of global oil supply from the market, and demand for Russian crude rose sharply. A $10 per barrel increase in export prices generates roughly $1.1–1.2 billion in additional monthly revenue for the Russian budget. Given that the average price of Russian export oil in January and February stood at around $42 per barrel, it is reasonable to expect that April alone will bring no less than $4.5 billion in additional income.
At the same time, higher energy prices complicate the task for Western governments. The more expensive oil and gas become, the harder it is to maintain strict sanctions and an aggressive policy of rejecting Russian energy without provoking domestic discontent. These expanded opportunities for selling Russian oil give the Kremlin greater confidence that it can continue the war through 2026 without resorting to the non-military budget cuts that the Finance Ministry had begun planning.
The distraction dividend
The conflict is also diverting Western attention from Ukraine. The escalation around Iran has already stalled the negotiating process, reduced the intensity of debates over new aid packages for Kyiv, slowed decision-making, and strengthened the position of those within the EU who argue for a “pause” in supporting Ukraine. Moreover, the war has intensified competition for the same limited production capacity — air defence systems, ammunition, spare parts — turning Ukraine into one of several recipients of finite resources. This does not mean that aid to Kyiv will stop, but the risk of delays has increased, and delays directly affect Ukraine’s ability to compensate for Russia’s numerical advantage on the battlefield and to protect its energy and industrial infrastructure.
Why none of these guarantee Moscow a turning point in the war
However, this window for increased pressure on Ukraine does not guarantee Moscow a turning point in the war. Given its internal constraints, the Kremlin is unlikely to attempt a rapid breakthrough of the front line. It will prefer to continue a slow war of attrition.
Russia continues to run up against the quality and structure of its military force. The bulk of its experienced officer and NCO corps has been lost, which reduces the army’s capacity to plan and execute complex offensive operations. Although the Kremlin always retains the option of launching a large-scale mobilisation at relatively short notice, there are no signs that one is approaching. To maintain the necessary pace of its creeping mobilisation, the regime is encouraging regions to make active use of new recruitment practices — pressuring students with academic debts, tightening the rules around alternative civilian service, and aggressively recruiting contract soldiers, reservists, and foreign nationals. The result is an influx of less trained and less motivated personnel.
At the same time, a rapid expansion of the army’s numbers would more likely reduce its combat effectiveness than enhance it, since there are neither sufficient training centres nor the necessary equipment to prepare hundreds of thousands of new recruits. Furthermore, the Ukrainian military’s active and skilled use of drones has made it substantially harder to assemble the large troop concentrations required for major breakthroughs anywhere within 50 kilometres of the front line. This effectively rules out the possibility of a surprise strike, making large-scale operations far less effective and scenarios of a rapid collapse of Ukrainian defences unrealistic.
From the Kremlin’s perspective, this configuration does not look like failure. In the absence of any realistic chance of a quick military breakthrough on the one hand, and with well-founded doubts about Donald Trump’s ability to compel Volodymyr Zelensky to accept peace on Russian terms on the other, the Russian army is slowly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Donbas, advancing toward Zaporizhzhia, and occupying small territories in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts. These territories may serve as bargaining chips at the moment when the two sides approach the fixing of a line of separation.
For the time being, Vladimir Putin is able to demonstrate to his inner circle and to President Trump that his uncomplicated military tactics allow him to convert minimal tactical gains into a gradual shift of the front line in Russia’s favour. In such a situation, he has no incentive to resort to risky decisions or to make serious concessions in negotiations, whenever they resume.
“the Kremlin is unlikely to attempt a rapid breakthrough of the front line. It will prefer to continue a slow war of attrition.”
As many pundits have observed, it will continue until the rat nazi bastard is dead.
And even then, some other abomination will likely take over.
That is why the putinaZis must be defeated militarily and destroyed economically.
Trouble is that Ukraine’s feckless allies expect Ukraine to pull that off alone and the leader of their once most important supporter nation is now enabling genocide.
Hungary planned raid on Ukrainian cash-in-transit vehicles to provoke confrontation
An operation to seize Ukrainian cash-in-transit guards and assets belonging to Oschadbank on 5 March was planned by Hungarian intelligence services to provoke a confrontation with Ukraine ahead of Hungary’s parliamentary elections.
Source: investigative journalists from VSquare, as reported by European Pravda
Details: According to four sources familiar with the details of the operation to detain the Ukrainian cash-in-transit guards and seize Oschadbank’s assets, the raid was led by Örs Farkas, the state secretary responsible for civilian intelligence services.
It is claimed that Hungarian intelligence services had been monitoring regular shipments of bank cargo from Austria to Ukraine since at least early January 2026. Surveillance was conducted abroad: operatives identified the hotel in Vienna where the Ukrainian guards were staying and mapped out the routes they used.
Hungary’s initial plan was to catch the Ukrainians with weapons, which would have allowed the authorities to promote a narrative about terrorism or illegal arms trafficking.
For this reason, the Counterterrorism Centre (TEK) was tasked with carrying out the raid, which was personally overseen by State Secretary Farkas from the TEK command centre.
However, the raid did not go as planned, as the documents, cash transfers and the cash-in-transit operation turned out to be entirely legal, and the Ukrainians were not carrying any weapons.
As a result, Hungarian authorities hastily devised a “Plan B”, accusing the cash-in-transit guards of money laundering. Hungary’s tax authority (the NAV) was instructed to launch an investigation to create the appearance of legality.
The fact that the operation was improvised is also evidenced by the absence of any notification to the Hungarian military intelligence regarding the raid, despite the narrative about a “war mafia”.
Moreover, Hungary’s Ministry of Defence was informed only after TEK operatives realised they lacked sufficient vehicles to transport the seized cash-in-transit vehicles and had to request military transport.
According to the sources, the operation is being considered a success in Hungary because news of it reached Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ahead of a press conference. They suggest this may relate to the moment when Zelenskyy threatened to give the address of “a certain person” blocking the EU’s €90 billion loan for Ukraine (alluding to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán) to “the guys from the Armed Forces of Ukraine”. However, journalists cannot confirm that these remarks were directly linked to the raid involving Oschadbank.
Background: On 9 March, Hungarian authorities urgently adopted legislation to create a legal framework for the confiscation of funds that ended up in the hands of the Hungarian intelligence services after the seizure of two Oschadbank cash-in-transit vehicles. This also required a separate specially adopted decision by Viktor Orbán’s government.
[Source: Ukrainska Pravda, via MSN]
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hungary-planned-raid-on-ukrainian-cash-in-transit-vehicles-to-provoke-confrontation/ar-AA1Z4kVW
MotherFarkas : fuck you arsehole.
And fuck OrbanaZi. Nazi POS.
Russia’s quid pro quo to Trump revealed that would see US abandon Ukraine
Russia proposed a quid pro quo arrangement to President Donald Trump’s envoys that would result in giving up on Ukraine.
The Kremlin offered to stop sharing intelligence information about U.S. military assets with Iran if Washington stopped doing the same with Ukraine against Russian forces, two sources familiar with the negotiations told Politico.
The offer was made by Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev to Trump administration envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner last week during a meeting in Miami, according to the sources, but the U.S. rejected the proposal.
European diplomats expressed alarm that Russia even made the offer, which they saw as an effort to drive a wedge between Europe and the U.S., and they are suspicious that Dmitriev is trying to lure Witkoff into a Ukraine peace agreement that ignores European interests.
Russia has been sharing intelligence with Iran about U.S. military operations in the Middle East since the joint U.S.-Israeli military operation began nearly three weeks ago, but Trump excused those efforts by linking them to Ukraine.
“[Russian President Vladimir Putin] might be helping [Iran] a little bit, yeah, I guess,” Trump said last week, “and he probably thinks we’re helping Ukraine, right?”
Another person familiar with the talks said Russia has made various other proposals to the U.S. about Iran, including an offer to move Iran’s enriched uranium to Russia, but the U.S. has rejected them all.
[From Raw Story, via MSN]
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-quid-pro-quo-to-trump-revealed-that-would-see-us-abandon-ukraine/ar-AA1Z5pRB