18 May 2026
In 2026, Russian citizens will face a near-total halt in real income growth and will be forced to virtually freeze spending on goods and services, according to an updated macroeconomic forecast published by the Ministry of Economic Development.
In the Ministry of Economic Development’s baseline scenario, real disposable incomes of Russians will grow by only 0.8% this year—three times less than the ministry expected six months ago (2.1%), and nine times less than last year’s growth (Rosstat estimated it at 7.4%).
In the conservative scenario, which includes oil prices falling to $50 and a global economic slowdown due to the war in Iran, income growth will only be 0.5%.
Consumers who have already adopted austerity measures will remain so until at least the end of the year, according to the Ministry’s forecast: retail turnover growth, according to the ministry, will slow to 0.8%—five times less than last year’s (4.1%). In its conservative scenario, the Ministry of Economic Development allows for a 0.4% decline in retail sales—the first since 2022.
The Ministry was forced to lower its forecasts for household income growth and, subsequently, private consumption, due to a general reduction in its economic forecasts, which, in turn, is linked to worsening assumptions for oil production and exports, as well as the Central Bank’s strict policy, notes economist Dmitry Polevoy.
In its new forecast, the Ministry expects GDP growth to be only 0.4%, which is three times lower than last year’s result and ten times slower than the economic growth rate in 2023-2024. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, oil production in Russia will fall to a 17-year low this year, oil exports will be 17 million tons lower than expected, and the decline in investment will triple—from 0.5% last year to 1.5%.
Official statistics are already recording a slowdown in personal income growth, notes Olga Belenkaya, an economist at Finam: in the first quarter, income increased by only 1.5% year-on-year, compared to 5.8% the previous quarter and 7.1% for the same period in 2025. Consumer sentiment, measured monthly by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in surveys, has fallen to its lowest level since the fall of 2022. Belenkaya argues that VAT increases and high interest rates on loans are likely contributing to this.
In Russia, “there are certain problems with the population’s purchasing power,” notes economist Andrei Barkhota: “It has indeed declined significantly. People began saving around the middle of last year. This is documented by Rosstat and independent sociological studies conducted in Russia.”
The main reason, according to the expert, is rising food prices: the share of food expenditures in the consumer basket has reached 39%, the highest since 2008. “This is putting significant pressure on consumer sentiment, on purchasing power, and is forcing most shoppers to turn to stores that offer greater discounts and are generally more accessible,” notes Barkhota.
Take this report about mafia finances with the usual grain of salt. Never trust ruskie numbers. The real income growth is most likely in the negative range.