04/1/2025
In March 2025, the Russian occupation forces attempted to demonstrate activity along the entire front line, but suffered significantly greater losses in proportion to the territories captured. All this indicates that the depletion of the ROV has become irreversible.
The army of the aggressor country is trying to continue offensive operations in the absence of regular equipment for its units and saturation with a non-specialized component.
The result of such actions was both very low rates of captured territories and high losses in a number of categories, related precisely to this feature of the current offensive actions of the occupation forces.
But first things first.
Personnel losses
In March 2024, the Russian occupation forces suffered not record losses in personnel, but quite significant in the context of the limited seizure of Ukrainian territories – 41,160.
Let me remind you that in November 2024, the ROV lost 45,720 personnel, in December 2024 – 48,670, and in January 2025 – 48,240.
But in the current situation, what is important is not so much the quantitative indicator of human resource losses, but the proportion with the seizure of territories. And as of March, this is 130 km², or the proportion: per 1 km² of territory, the losses amounted to more than 315 people.
Taking into account the fact that in February the Russian occupiers captured 188 km² of Ukrainian territory, the average enemy losses were over 190 people/1 km², in 2024 this figure was on average 128 people/1 km², while in January 2025 it was 150 people/1 km², we can say that the losses of the ROV personnel in proportion to the territory of Ukraine that was captured in March became record.
On the other hand, am I surprised by this? No. On the contrary. This is exactly what I wrote about in my analysis for 2024, drawing attention to the fact that in the spring of 2025, the Russian occupation forces will fight mainly with people, with minimal efficiency. That’s how it happens, so no surprises, it’s completely expected and predicted.
Tank losses
In March 2025, the Russian occupation forces lost 272 tanks, which fully corresponds to the average statistical indicator since July 2024. That is, the participation rate of main battle tanks, even the oldest and most obsolete ones in the occupation forces, has not changed since July 2024.
We are now witnessing how the country that had the largest reserves of MBTs in the world is entering a phase of their acute shortage. And, again, what is strange about this? After all, this is exactly what I warned about last year. But let’s move on…
Losses of armored combat vehicles
In March, the ROV lost 607 ABMs.
This is an average figure since December 2024, due to the same problems that arose with MBTs – the inability of the Russian military-industrial complex to compensate for losses with both new and renewed products within a month.
Artillery losses
In March 2025, an absolute record of losses of ROV cannon artillery was set – 1644.
This indicator is due to the fact that due to the lack of full-fledged fire support for assault operations by armored vehicles, which are carried out by MBTs and ABMs, these tasks are performed by artillery. And among the Russian occupiers, it is mainly represented by old Soviet barreled, towed models – with extremely low mobility, accuracy and range of target destruction.
As a result, the counter-battery combat of the Defense Forces of Ukraine using both artillery systems and other means of destruction has a significant advantage over the indicators of the DOM.
MLRS losses
In March 2025, the Russian occupiers lost 43 units of multiple launch rocket systems. Although this is not a record, it is the highest rate of losses of DOV in this category since August 2024.
As in the case of barrel artillery, the activation of MLRS is due to the lack of full-fledged fire support for the advancing infantry forces of the ROV by armored vehicles. Therefore, artillery plays a major role in this matter, which is what causes the increasing loss rates in this category.
It is also worth recalling that the Russian occupation forces are now increasingly using as MLRS not the standard 122-mm BM-21 “Grad”, 220-mm BM-27 “Uragan” and 300-mm BM-30 “Smerch”, but homunculi in the form of RBU-1200, RBU-6000 naval bombardment guns mounted on the chassis of the MT-LB, BMP-1, T-72, T-80, Ural-4320 and even the frames of ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns.
Air defense losses
For the second month in a row, the Russian occupation forces have demonstrated a fairly stable rate of air defense system losses – 35 units. This, after a decline since November 2024, may be due to the increased activation of the affected SOU’s assets, which are engaged in targeted hunting and destruction of these objects.
Let me remind you that it is air defense systems that are the most problematic for DOM in terms of compensation: both in the form of new products restored after storage, and repairs after damage.
Vehicle losses
In March 2025, the Russian occupation forces suffered the highest losses of road transport during the entire period of the full-scale war – 3,545.
Of course, this is all due to the critical shortage (as I predicted in 2024) in the Russian Armed Forces of tanks, armored personnel carriers, and armored vehicles. However, under the current conditions, a completely relevant question arises…
And when the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine publishes daily data on the losses of DOM in this category, does it really take into account motor vehicles or, for example, motorcycles, electric scooters, and bicycles? Which category do they fall into? Or a horse, donkey, camel…
Yes, it seems that all this sounds like an anecdote and extraordinary surrealism, but, friends, the RBU-1200 naval bomb launcher, mounted on the frame of the ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun, is not a regular MLRS at all, but for the “second army in the world” it is quite possible.
Losses of special equipment
In March 2025, the number of destroyed special equipment of the Russian occupiers was the lowest since January 2023 – 24 units.
All this is due to the fact that… What should be evacuated from the combat zone? Motorcycles or electric scooters? Russian BREMs are being used less and less, not only because after their record losses in the summer-autumn of 2024, their number has generally decreased, but also because there is no need to evacuate anything valuable from the combat zone today.
Conclusions
According to the results of the losses of the Russian Armed Forces for March 2025, we can only confirm the fact that the Russian army continues to remain on the vector of its exhaustion. Numerous verifications of destroyed equipment in the combat zone show that it has turned into something between Syrian and Taliban. But the Taliban at least prefer Toyota pickup trucks, and the Russian occupiers are completely switching to “Niva”, “Zhiguli”, “Bukhanki”, “Oka”, electric scooters…
In November 2024, while reviewing the losses of the Russian Armed Forces for the month, I wrote: “It is obvious that such high loss rates will persist at least until the inauguration of Donald Trump. “At least” also means that after the inauguration, Putin will try to demonstrate strength to Trump through intensive combat operations, imitating the limitlessness of opportunities and infinity of resources. But this is not the case, and this is already evident from a number of categories of losses of the Russian Armed Forces for November. In the long term, this promises a decrease in the pace and scale of offensive operations for the Russian troops – whether they want it or not.”
In March 2025, it is obvious not only that there is a total shortage in a number of categories of military equipment, but also that further active hostilities are leading Russia into a deep crisis, which even the USSR was not in during its collapse.
Vladimir Putin has always regretted the collapse of the USSR and has often mentioned this fact in his comments, but with his actions he has done what even Mikhail Gorbachev could not achieve. Senator John McCain would be satisfied with the results of the current degradation of the Russian army. In technical and technological terms, it is practically non-existent now, all that remains is to solve the issue of the human component.
The demilitarization and denazification of the Russian army is proceeding strictly according to plan.
Wonderful news.
I’d like to point out the artillery losses for the roach army, which has been a virtual catastrophe for them. Artillery was and is the backbone of the Soviet army. Having decimated it forced them to use outdated artillery, as the article mentions. With every shot they fire, they risk destruction. Counter battery radar has made being a crewman of towed artillery a most dangerous job.
Who has the cards? Not mafia land!
“And when the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine publishes daily data on the losses of DOM in this category, does it really take into account motor vehicles or, for example, motorcycles, electric scooters, and bicycles?”
Don’t forget the latest mode of transport, the very effective wheelchair.