5 December 2025
The European Union and the G7 are discussing a radical tightening of sanctions against Russian oil. Instead of the “price cap” mechanism in effect since the end of 2022, the EU and G7 are considering a complete ban on services related to the transportation of oil from Russia by sea, Reuters reports , citing six sources familiar with the project.
The idea, according to the agency’s sources, is expected to be included in a new package of European sanctions, expected in early 2026.
Currently, Western tanker and insurance companies are allowed to service Russian oil trade as long as the price per barrel is below the “ceiling.” Initially, it was $60 per barrel, but the EU and Canada later lowered it to $47.6 per barrel. As a result, about a third of Russian oil is transported by Western tankers—primarily Greek, but also Cypriot and Maltese.
The new sanctions will put an end to this practice. According to Reuters sources, European officials want to first discuss the idea with G7 representatives before including it in the sanctions package, and have already secured support from Britain and the United States. However, the Donald Trump administration’s final decision will depend on the negotiations on Ukraine and the tactics it chooses, the agency’s sources emphasize.
According to CREA , in October, 38% of Russian oil exports were carried by tankers from G7 countries. The remaining barrels were transported by the “shadow fleet” the Kremlin assembled to circumvent Western sanctions: 44% of the oil was carried by sanctioned tankers and 18% by non-blacklisted tankers. The share of Western tankers in the transportation of Russian petroleum products is even higher – 79%, according to CREA calculations.
In total, the global “shadow fleet,” which, in addition to Russia, handles sanctioned oil from Iran and Venezuela, comprises 1,423 tankers. Of these, 921 are blacklisted by the US, UK, or EU.
Western sanctions have always allowed loopholes, and sometimes even opened barn doors.
I will place my bets on Ukrainian sanctions.