22.10.2023 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP

The occupying country, Russia, has already announced the capture of the city of Avdiivka, for which there have been fierce battles in recent weeks. However, this is not true. Objectively, the enemy does not have the opportunity to encircle the city – for this there are simply not enough forces and means, in particular artillery. The occupier is trying to cover the city with a barrage of fire, but not with artillery, but with aviation, Su-25 attack aircraft. However, these aircraft become an excellent target for Ukrainian air defense systems. Near Avdiivka, Russia has already lost five Su-25s, each of which costs more than $10 million.

Why Avdiivka and why now? The main motive is again not military, but political. This city has acquired special significance for the occupier, and even the “victory” over Avdiivka has already been announced, therefore, it must be conquered at any cost. To carry out the order, the enemy had only one option: to gather a huge amount of forces and equipment near Avdiivka, exposing other sectors of the front. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexey Getman .

– The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine actually confirmed the assumption that the Ukrainian Defense Forces appeared on the left bank of the Dnieper. The next report said that among the settlements that were attacked by occupation aircraft was Peschanivka, located on the left bank of the Dnieper. How difficult is it to gain a foothold there? How difficult is the situation from a purely military point of view? In your estimation, how will events develop on the left bank?

– Frankly speaking, I don’t think that we will make a large bridgehead there, at least that there will be some active offensive actions in the coming days. There, our marines, DRG and other special forces constantly crossed the river, landed on the left bank, carried out certain operations and returned.

The terrain there is very difficult, especially after the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric power station dam was blown up, there are many small islands, bays, etc. Therefore, most likely, this will be a small bridgehead while we gain a foothold there.

We currently do not have the opportunity to cross the river with large forces, because we need to build pontoon crossings and attract a large amount of equipment, which we still lack. In addition, it is necessary to maintain fire control at least several tens of kilometers from this place, so that the Russians do not have fire control there from their side.

If this is a stationary bridgehead, it will need to be constantly replenished with cartridges, shells and everything else that is needed, it will constantly need to be transported from the right bank to the left in order to maintain the combat effectiveness of the unit. And the Russians will definitely attack it. Now we are constantly moving, so there is no point in the Russians adding large forces here.

Although, perhaps, the General Staff has other opinions on this matter. For now, we can say with confidence that we are calmly crossing the Dnieper River, calmly landing on the left bank in different places. After all, we are talking not only about one specified locality. Our sabotage groups landed along a multi-kilometer strip. Although this news does inspire some optimism.

– What is the main task of the Defense Forces that are landing on the left bank of the Dnieper?

– To gain a foothold and create certain firing positions, and to assure the ability to maneuver in order to avoid artillery fire from the Russians or any attack. In fact, we have already done this, starting in 2014. These are so-called raids behind enemy lines, they make him panic.

Most likely, testing the possibilities for creating a springboard for serious offensive actions on the left bank. So far this is not a springboard. It’s unlikely that there was such a plan. This is not the time today.

– The next question is regarding the Crimean Bridge. According to British military intelligence, the Crimean Bridge has become a “security liability” for Russia due to the fact that greater efforts have to be made to protect it. Do you think that today there is an urgent military need to destroy this bridge? Do we already have the capacity to do this?

– There is information from the same British intelligence that Ukraine is already at the last stage of developing the latest drones, which can move not only on the surface of the water, but also at a certain depth. Consequently, it will be difficult for the Russians to see and intercept them. Essentially it is a guided torpedo, a very powerful weapon. They can’t cope with surface ones either, and with these it will be even more difficult.

Why is this bridge sacred for Russians? Not because they really like it and don’t want to lose it. No. This is the most powerful arteries of supply to Crimea.

The enemy very carefully guards the Volnovakha-Tokmak-Dzhankoy railway line in the south, realizing that sooner or later it will be not only under our artillery control, but also under physical control. He is trying to build another railway along the coast of the Azov Sea. Consequently, under such conditions, the Crimean Bridge is an extremely important logistics artery for them.

When we destroy the bridge and physically control another railway line, the enemy will only have road routes, which have much less capacity for transporting goods. This is only 5-7% of what they can transport by rail. Thus, they will not have the opportunity to maintain the combat effectiveness of the troops in Crimea, or to deliver everything that is necessary. They understand this very well, so they will fight for both the bridge and the railway.

As for our capabilities to destroy the bridge, they exist. I think we’ll see it soon.

– And about new military assistance from Western partners, which continues to arrive. Ukraine received the first samples of ATACMS missiles, unfortunately, with a range of only 165 km. We expect that this fact will unfreeze the supply of Taurus missiles from Germany. According to the Minister of Defense, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have adopted three modifications of Leopard tanks. If we talk about these weapons and what we can get in the near future, could you predict how they might be needed in the autumn-winter period that we are entering?

We were really looking forward to the results of the sixteenth Ramstein, we were hoping to see some information regarding ATACMS, aircraft or other weapons. But we only saw what we could talk about officially.

Subsequently, we saw a powerful attack by our Armed Forces with ATACMS missiles on enemy targets. Therefore, I am sure that not all the items supplied to us will be announced before they are delivered.

As for the tanks, yes, these are more modern tanks, but in general they are the same Leopard 2, only modified, more advanced. Regarding other tanks, in particular 31 Abrams tanks, this is a big plus. You can’t focus on something separately; everything together increases the power of our Armed Forces and increases our capabilities.

What will be the next deliveries? I think that longer-range ATACMS will follow, if they are not already in Ukraine. After all, the first batch was a test one to see how correctly they would be used and how skillfully we could use these weapons. We have shown that we can use ATACMS skillfully and against significant enemy military targets.

– The last question is about Avdiivka. The enemy is trying to cordon off this city with the help of aviation and Su-25 attack aircraft. There are reports that the Defense Forces have shot down the fifth Su-25, each of which costs about $11 million.

– Yes, aviation is an expensive thing.

– So, we see that the enemy is ready to pay a very high price to take this settlement. Why do you think he has become more active now? After all, attempts to capture Avdiivka have been going on almost since 2014, and this is explained by its proximity to Donetsk. Your prediction: will the invaders be able to break through our defenses?

– Why have air attacks intensified? Because they don’t have enough artillery to create a firestorm. They still have enough planes, weapons for those planes, bombs, and missiles… They can do it.

They still need to make a fire barrage, if not with artillery, then with planes. And the fact that they will lose Su-25s is obvious, because they begin to fly into the zone of destruction of our air defense forces, which, of course, will destroy them. But the occupiers have no choice. They have already announced that they allegedly captured Avdiivka, and that their offensive actions will be very successful.

Therefore, the enemy is ready to put a lot of people, military equipment, and planes into action, because even the regime will find it difficult to explain why Avdiivka is supposedly already under control, but for some reason is not under control. The order to take Avdiivka was a political decision, there is no big military sense here, but in order to feed the militaristic hysteria in Russia, they will fight.

Will we be able to break through our defenses? So far it hasn’t been possible. But if they remove everything possible from the entire front, an insane amount of forces and resources, then some progress there is possible. With the forces that they have now, they are not able to do this.

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