05/17/2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP

A certain decrease in the pace of advance of the Russian occupation army in the Kharkov region can be explained by several reasons. One of them is that the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, needed at least some kind of “victory” on the eve of May 9. Since this plan fell through, there was correspondingly no need to rush too much. Another reason is that in a situation where Ukrainian and Western military intelligence is aware of all troop movements, it is very difficult to secretly assemble a large group to break through the front. As soon as she appears, she is attacked.

The main forces of the occupation army are “spread out” along the entire front line. The direction of the main attack appears to be uncertain. The enemy is testing Ukrainian defenses and looking for weak points. If he finds even one, he will give up all his strength and resources. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by military expert, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petr Nedzelsky.

– President Zelensky reported a partial stabilization of the situation near Volchansk in the Kharkiv region, despite the fact that the enemy continues to advance. How do you rate this good news? Could it be a sign that Allied military assistance has already arrived on this section of the front?

– I am deeply convinced that Putin wanted to give a “gift” to his veterans or someone else on May 9 and win a small victory at the front. But to our happiness, to our pride, this did not work out; we did not give him such pleasure. Therefore, we can say that Putin’s populist plan was thwarted.

This is precisely what can explain why the pace of the enemy army’s advance decreased. Putin is a psychopath, because there are no objective reasons to tie the date of the offensive to any holidays or historical events.

– So you think that the enemy is simply exhausted? Long before the offensive in the Kharkov region, almost all military experts argued that the offensive was impossible, since the enemy objectively did not have the resource for this. So they were right?

– Yes, that’s absolutely right. The fact is that even earlier all military experts said that Putin never had enough forces to capture Kharkov or conduct urban battles. The theory of armed confrontations states that if you want to attack, you must have at least five times more troops than the enemy. If it is less, there is a high probability, almost one hundred percent, that you will fail.

Putin did not have much of a numerical advantage in this regard. Yes, in general he has large troops, but it was necessary to gather from all fronts, create a certain wedge, attack direction, etc. But we would have figured it out, we would have launched massive attacks… All this is very difficult to organize so that no one learned – to concentrate a large group of troops in the direction of the main attack and make sure that the offensive was successful.

Thus, this advantage of Putin in personnel loses its meaning, despite the fact that we are talking about a 20-fold advantage. As soon as he begins to concentrate troops in a certain direction, our intelligence, assisted by Western intelligence, instantly records this. As soon as a certain group is formed, we strike at it and disperse these forces.

So the enemy’s advantage in numbers is spread across the entire front and loses its penetration function.

– Yes, the enemy is “spreading” his forces – active combat operations are underway almost along the entire front line. But is it possible to talk about a change in emphasis? For example, you can notice that the intensity of the fighting near Chasov Yar or in the Avdeevsky direction has dropped somewhat, while at the same time the fighting in the northeast has intensified. Do you see certain trends? Is it possible to predict which direction the enemy will choose as a priority?

“For now, I don’t think the enemy himself knows this.” He is trying to determine the weakest points in our defense, and as soon as he finds such a place, as soon as there is a breakthrough in the Ukrainian defense on a certain section of the front, they will immediately begin to transfer forces there from all fronts. Moreover, this is not a new tactic. This was the case during World War II, when large frontal offensives took place.

Sometimes a certain direction was prepared for the main attack, but it turned out that the enemy had strong defenses there. In other areas, where the appearance of an offensive was created in order to divert enemy troops there, professional commanders broke through the defenses. In this case, the headquarters command instantly changed the operational plan and chose a different direction for the main attack. It is precisely by this logic that Putin acts.

– You, as a Kharkov resident, probably know very well what is happening there now. The city is constantly under attack. Do you think it is possible to effectively protect the city from enemy missiles and drones?

– Of course, we have. There is an air defense system there. Many talented scientists and commanders, including graduates of the Kharkov Military University, took part in its development.

Kharkov, in principle, defends itself very well. But the problem is that the city is located very close to the border with Russia – only 40 kilometers. Therefore, missiles can cover this distance very quickly. Sometimes air defense systems manage to shoot down missiles, sometimes not. It’s the same with drones, although they have their own specifics. There is a problem, but Kharkiv residents are coping.

– Previously, the topic of creating a sanitary or demilitarized zone on Russian territory was often discussed. In the context of this endless terror of the border regions of Ukraine, perhaps it is worth mentioning this? Do you admit that under certain circumstances such a zone could be created in the future?

– Yes, this is a good option, but it’s a half-measure, like a poultice for a dead person. What kind of sanitary zone can we talk about with an invader, with an aggressor who simply doesn’t give a damn about international law, about international agreements? Establish a sanitary zone with a fascist who bombs residential areas in the center of Kharkov, when children, women, and elderly people die?

I have serious doubts that this will be effective. I know what the Russian military is like, I had to communicate with them, and I can say: they only understand force. All we need is large-scale help from our Western partners and a tough response. No compromises, no agreements. The occupation army must withdraw beyond the 1991 borders – and then we begin to talk about compensation and the rest.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/putin-ne-ostanavlivaetsya-no-myi-mozhem-slomit-ego-nastupatelnyie-planyi-intervyu-s-generalom-romanenko.htm