04.09.2026
The current stage of the war can be called a “war of cities.” The aggressor country, Russia, has concentrated its efforts on massive strikes on Ukrainian cities, in particular, the capital – just as Nazi Germany did at one time, dropping thousands of bombs on London. At the same time, the reality is that the strikes that Ukraine inflicts on Russia are much more painful than the opposite, because the Defense Forces de facto deprive the aggressor of what it cannot exist without – the ability to export oil.
When will this process end? It is difficult to predict the timing, but it is safe to assume that this format of confrontation will last at least until the end of winter. This opinion was expressed by military expert Pavlo Narozhnyi in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– On the night of August 28, Ukrainian drones hit a TU-95MS strategic bomber carrying cruise missiles at the Russian Engels airfield. In your opinion, is this a lucky coincidence or evidence that Ukraine’s capabilities to strike enemy aircraft have increased?
– There is definitely more than one Tu-95 in Engels. We are talking about 5-15 pieces. Also note that the plane was hit, not destroyed. That is, there is a fundamental difference here, because what is destroyed cannot be restored if it is completely burned, but what is damaged can be restored.
Therefore, I still believe that this is both a coincidence and a systematic work. It is definitely not easy to just hit Engels there, because there are definitely several echelons of air defense systems there, and small aircraft that protect the airfield itself. Therefore, if we really had the opportunity to deliver a massive strike, we would not damage, but destroy several aircraft.
But even the destruction of one Tu-95 is a serious success, because Russia has, at best, up to 30 aircraft. I think about 70% of all the aircraft they have in stock have reached their end of life. They cannot produce spare parts for the engines and avionics of the aircraft, that is, the electronics that control it. Therefore, even the destruction, even damage to such an aircraft is very important.
– Russia still has A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft. How many of them are left now and can their number be reduced?
– How many are left? I won’t tell you the exact number (according to Ukrainian military analysts, no more than five. – Ed.), but even damaging such a plane is a pretty serious success. We have already destroyed several of them. Once, explosives were dropped on the airfield and damaged the plane. Once, our sabotage group fired a grenade launcher at the moment when the plane was being refueled. Another time, it was shot down by a missile, probably a Soviet S-200 (Ukrainian Defense Forces directly destroyed two Russian A-50 planes in the air, and also hit or damaged at least 3-4 more on the ground during special operations. – Ed.).
The enemy knows all our means very well. Of the longest-range means, we have the Patriot with a range of 140 km. Moreover, much depends on the altitude of the air target. If it is at an altitude of, say, 15 km, then it will not be 140 km, but less. In addition, we must understand that we cannot place the Patriot launcher directly on the line of combat contact. This means that the effective range from the line of combat contact will be 100 km at best. So, the Patriot is out of the question in this case, because it does not work at such a range.
The second tool we have is the American-made AIM-120 missile with a range of 120 km. There is also a modification of such a missile with a range of up to 200 km – our Air Force published a photo of our Ukrainian F-16, most likely with such a modified missile suspended.
But the enemy knows this, so they don’t take their planes to a distance where our F-16, Patriot launcher or some other means may be. Therefore, the answer is this: by standard, classical means we are unlikely to be able to get the DRLV (long-range radar detection and control aircraft. – Ed.). Then the question arises, by what other means we can get it.
These are ballistic missiles, which we have been talking about for a long time, or the Sapsan-Grim-2 project. Theoretically, the Grim-2 can get us to the airfield where this plane is located. And, finally, cruise missiles with a long range. We are talking about the Flamingo, we are talking about the Neptune with a thousand-kilometer range. Perhaps some other means can also get it.
And let’s not forget about the “Spider Web” operations, when drones, with a range of at best ten kilometers, were able to get close to a strategic airfield and strike it.
Of course, Russia knows about all these methods – drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. But, as practice shows, our Armed Forces are very creative, and they can always find some new method that no one has seen before and that no one knew about.
– The next question is about the current stage of the war. Do you agree that the war has now turned into a war of attrition? If so, whose side has the advantage? And how, in your opinion, can the accents of enemy strikes change? Do you already see certain changes? Can any more changes occur before the start of the infamous season?
– First of all, the war of attrition actually began a few years ago. But before, it was primarily about the depletion of resources at the front. It’s about human resources, about ammunition, in particular, about the production of artillery ammunition, drones and everything else that we use at the front.
Now we have entered a stage that can be conditionally called the “war of cities.” Cities and infrastructure are being destroyed, both here and in Russia, because Russia can do absolutely nothing at the front. Their advances are simply microscopic. In a month, they advance a few kilometers with losses of 40 thousand fighters. In the Donetsk region, Ukrainian osinters counted 52 square kilometers, which we lost in a month. 52 square kilometers. That is, we are talking about small cities.
Of course, the military doesn’t always agree with this “accounting” approach, where we measure losses in square kilometers.
Somewhere a distance of a hundred meters or half a kilometer can be of great importance, because somewhere artillery or drone operators can come closer. But in general, the enemy at the front, directly on the front line, does not have a strategic advantage, so he focused on strikes on cities. This is the path that the same Nazis took during World War II, when they destroyed London. And there the destruction was an order of magnitude greater than in the city of Kyiv. For example, 5-6 thousand V-16 missiles were launched. They were completely untargetable and flew wherever they could, in particular, into the civilian sector.
The Russians are shooting at us with ballistic missiles, jet drones, they are targeting infrastructure facilities, logistics centers, Epicenter stores, and other economic facilities. It is also no secret that two CHP plants have been destroyed in the city of Kyiv, so we will have a difficult heating season, but we will somehow get out of this situation.
We are destroying what the Russians cannot live without. They cannot live without the export of energy, oil and gas. But, unlike the Russians, we are farmers, and our main business is the export of grain – corn, wheat, sunflower oil. These are our main products that we export. The enemy is attacking our ports. We have only one working port left – Odesa. They are attacking infrastructure, ships, dry cargo ships. This is a huge problem for us, because now we will begin harvesting the crop, which needs to be exported.
We have traditionally been like this. From about October to February, if the weather in the Black Sea allowed, we exported grain. Now this may become a problem for us. But we have the European Union and our other allies behind us, who have a lot of resources. Therefore, there is no particular problem for them in covering our grain losses. We have a loan of 90 billion euros, which will be repaid through income from frozen Russian assets.
Obviously, the European Union will have to increase funding for Ukraine, provide us with additional funds so that we can survive. And Russia does not have such support. Yes, perhaps China is helping. It has taken on some of the sanctions flows, but it cannot take on all of them, because we are also knocking out this infrastructure. Oil production in Russia is falling.
It is very difficult for me to say where this process will end, but the absolute fact is that we are delivering much more sensitive blows to the Russians than what they are doing. We have taken out their port in Novorossiysk, we are destroying their shadow fleet dry cargo ships with naval drones.
I am more than sure that all this will continue until the end of the year, and then throughout the winter.
“…but the absolute fact is that we are delivering much more sensitive blows to the Russians than what they are doing.”
Worth remembering.