19.02.2026
The Russian occupation army has lost a significant advantage on the battlefield, due to which the Ukrainian Defense Forces began to liberate the occupied territories faster, and the enemy’s missile and drone strikes have significantly decreased. This is a loss of command and control due to the Starlink shutdown. The enemy has not yet found an “antidote”, but there are other, more global factors leading to its downfall. First of all, this is the sum of economic problems that continue to accumulate and indirectly affect the battlefield.
They say we need to negotiate with Russia because geography cannot be changed. But in reality, we need to work on changing the administrative structure of the Russian Federation, as happened with the Soviet Union at one time.
This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by the director of military programs of the Razumkov Center, military expert Mykola Sungurovsky.
– In just five days, from February 11 to 15, the Defense Forces regained control of approximately 201 square kilometers of territory. This is the largest progress in two and a half years. Analysts say this was due to the Russians disconnecting from Starlink . Do you think this is really the main reason? Can this success be expanded?
– This is a very difficult question, because success on the battlefield consists of many factors. Changing any of them can lead to radical changes or, conversely, not to form a certain general trend.
Unfortunately, Russia still has a numerical advantage, and this numerical advantage means that they can maneuver with their own forces and means. That is why they are much more successful than us. With technology, we are more or less doing well so far, but with manpower, there is a huge problem, we have a very large deficit.
Therefore, the concentration of our troops on certain sections of the front means that other sections will be forced to be weakened. The Russians know this, because intelligence works well there. Because of this, each such breakthrough means that in fact on one section of the front we break through the defense, and on another we lose control over several villages. That is, it is a seesaw. Therefore, it is very difficult to say how all this will end.
In fact, depriving Russia of Starlink has led to the loss of a serious advantage in command and control on the front line, and not only there. After all, we see that changes are taking place not only on the front line – there have been fewer missile and drone strikes, and moreover, they are concentrated mainly at close range, in front-line areas. Because there is no Starlink, accordingly, there are no flight control systems for the same drones. If the enemy without drones launches some ballistic missiles, we intercept them, shoot them down. Russian drones have depleted our air defense and led to unpleasant consequences during strikes on civilian infrastructure, energy infrastructure, etc.
That is, each of these factors affects the overall situation. How much? As much as we can find an “antidote”. And this happens on both sides: we invent and apply something new, and the Russians try to find countermeasures. And vice versa, we do the same. This is war, a living thing.
– You said that we have a problem with manpower. Indeed, that is true. But recent trends indicate that the enemy’s losses currently exceed the number of new contracts signed. What do you think is the reason for this? Is it because the Defense Forces have started to destroy more of the enemy’s manpower, or is it because the enemy has problems with new contracts?
– Both the first and the second. In fact, our martial arts are growing, and we have a technical advantage on our side. And internal factors within Russia do not allow them to mobilize personnel on such a scale that could compensate for losses at the front. It all works. This is a war of attrition.
In fact, yes, it is. What will the consequences be? I think they will be very unpleasant for Russia, because such things are happening not only at the front. There are also very negative events taking place in the economy. Russia is on the verge of collapse.
At the Munich Conference, they said that we need to communicate with Russia, because we will not change the geography… Yes, we will not change the geography, but we can change the administrative structure of Russia. We must not forget that in the place of the post-Soviet countries there was once the Soviet Union, which ceased to exist. That is, such a precedent already exists. The same must be done with Russia.
– You said that Russia is on the verge of collapse. What is the most important problem that has brought it to this state?
– Economy. Destruction of the economy, its own economy. It’s not just gas and oil. Yes, they are the determining factors supporting the Russian economy, but the very system of management and planning of this economy is not very flexible. Russia managed to quickly reorient the economy on military rails, but what next? Due to the fact that new enterprises have been created that are engaged in the production of military equipment, the production of consumer goods is decreasing, and this is destroying the economy. And this includes finances, and loans, and everything else.
This situation affects not only production, but also the population, its condition. That is, we are talking about a cumulative effect. It is he, and not some separate factor, who led to this state of affairs.
– But we understand that when it comes to the economy, its impact on direct military operations, we cannot say that changes will be very rapid, it has a certain time lag. In your opinion, when will this set of problems make themselves felt directly on the battlefield?
– I can’t say that. I’m not an expert in economics to make such predictions. To do this, you need to see the situation from the inside.