Marta Gichko11:47, 03/17/24

The former Soviet satellite country enjoys the benefits of its past and good relations with those whom Russia considers friends.

Ukraine is about to receive large quantities of ammunition, which the Czech Republic , a former Soviet satellite state and one of Ukraine’s most ardent supporters, is fighting for.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the Czech Republic purchased about 800,000 artillery shells from various suppliers around the world and found another 700,000 that can be purchased additionally. We are talking about 300,000 Soviet-made shells and about 500,000 Western-made shells. As noted by the Czech government, more shells will be available as funds become available.

The supplies, which Czech officials say could begin arriving in Ukraine within weeks, come as shortages of ammunition and troops force the Ukrainian army to retreat in some areas. Western intelligence estimates that Ukrainian forces are so depleted that they are now firing only two rounds for every 10 shots fired by Russia.

Czech initiative

Russia, by contrast, is increasing domestic production and enlisting allies such as North Korea, Iran and Belarus for supplies. Some military analysts say Ukraine needs up to 200,000 rounds of various calibers every month to gain an advantage. Supplies organized by the Czech Republic can help soldiers advance further and defend.

“The Czech initiative will help Ukraine stabilize the front and regain its advantage,” said Nico Lange, former head of the executive office of the German Defense Ministry.

Unlike the United States, France or Germany, which have largely focused on ramping up domestic production to supply Ukraine, Czech officials said their initiative is focused on purchasing existing weapons. The Czechs began quietly traveling around the world, concluding sales agreements and negotiating export licenses with dozens of producing countries.

Czech officials said the country’s past as a former Soviet satellite was an unexpected advantage. This has given the country both a significant arms industry with global clients and good relations with many countries in the Global South with large stockpiles of Soviet-era weapons and the ability to produce more.

Officials would not comment on where the shells are coming from, but say the suppliers include some Russian allies. But, according to Western officials, similar requests from the United States and Western European countries to potential suppliers in Africa, Asia and Latin America were rejected.

NATO and EU officials have publicly supported the Czech initiative in recent days. Germany has so far pledged more than €500 million, which is by far the largest commitment.

The Czech Republic’s approach was to act as a mediator, said Tomas Kopecny, the Czech Republic’s special representative for Ukraine who helped negotiate the agreement. Prague approached countries that had either production capacity or compatible ammunition in stock and connected them with a Western country that would pay for shipping.

The Czech Republic then organizes logistics, sending supplies either across its own borders or through third countries, hiding any direct connection between the country of origin and Ukraine so as not to expose the supplier to the wrath of Moscow.

“Confidentiality is key here: we talk and will talk to anyone, regardless of their allegiance or political position – with very few exceptions, such as North Korea,” said Tomas Pojar, the Czech government’s national security adviser.

Prague’s efforts exposed a discrepancy between some governments’ friendly attitude toward Russia publicly and their openness to doing business with Ukraine’s allies privately, said Jan Gires, the country’s deputy defense minister.

“If you come with a lot of money, they are interested, and the Czech Republic is seen as neutral compared to the US, which is often polarizing,” said Jakub Janda, chairman of the Center for European Security Policy Values, a think tank in Prague.

The Czech Republic has now provided funding for the first tranche of about 300,000 shells. Donors include Germany, Canada, the Netherlands and Denmark. At this stage, the US is not part of the buyers’ club.

A matter of life and death

While major Western powers such as the US debated the dangers of sending new types of weapons to Ukraine for fear of provoking Moscow, the Czech Republic moved early to supply main battle tanks, missile launchers and large artillery pieces to Kiev. By the way, the launch vehicle for the missiles that sank the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet “Moscow” was delivered by the Czech Republic.

“It was disappointing to watch the inaction of countries that are much richer and more powerful when it was a matter of life or death for Ukrainians, and therefore for us,” Kopechny said.

Lange said the success of the Czech initiative was a lesson for larger NATO members, which are focused on ramping up their own weapons production, a slow process that is now limiting supplies to Ukraine.

European arms makers are ramping up production, but due to regulations, supply chain issues, lack of government funding and labor shortages, significant production increases are not expected until late next year or early 2026. In the EU, expanding a munitions plant takes about two years, while building a new one takes about five, according to officials and industry representatives in several countries.

For comparison, according to Western intelligence estimates, despite sanctions, Russia is ready to begin producing almost three times more large-caliber ammunition this year than the United States and Europe. According to the British think tank Royal United Services Institute, Russia’s total artillery production, including missiles, will reach three million shells per year.

“Western initiatives were hampered… by the desire to produce in Europe or the US, because countries wanted to combine support for Ukraine with support for their industries. This is a legitimate goal, since we need to rearm, but this is not what is needed to immediately help Ukraine,” – said Gires.

(C)UNIAN 2024