2 July 2026

The escalating fuel crisis, which has engulfed nearly all Russian regions, including more than 40 where official restrictions on gasoline sales have been imposed, has every chance of becoming the largest in the country’s modern history. An oil industry source told Kommersant

that it will likely be impossible to increase the capacity of Russian refineries damaged by drone strikes in the coming month. According to him, refining volumes this month will “at best” remain at June levels, and that’s assuming there are no further attacks on refineries. According to  Energy Intelligence estimates , oil refining volumes in Russia plummeted 25% year-on-year in June, to 3.91 million barrels per day, a more than 20-year low. Gasoline production fell 17% year-on-year, to 850,000 barrels per day, significantly below domestic market demand. Refinery downtime has reached “extraordinary” proportions, Energy Intelligence analyst Liam Peach told the Associated Press. Since March, drones have attacked Russian oil industry facilities at least 50 times, with some refineries hit multiple times. The Moscow refinery was attacked twice, Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez twice, and Rosneft’s Tuapse refinery holds the record, having been attacked seven times. “The most alarming aspect is that the crisis is just beginning,” notes Finam strategist Yaroslav Kabakov. “Seasonal demand traditionally peaks in August-September, and signs of shortages and price acceleration appeared as early as June.” Gasoline, now in short supply, is rapidly becoming more expensive: by the end of June, the annual increase in retail fuel prices had reached 20%—a record since 2010. At private gas stations not affiliated with major oil companies, a liter of gasoline is selling for 120 or even 140 rubles. In Crimea and Sevastopol, the epicenter of the gasoline crisis, prices reached 200 rubles per liter. Currently, about a third of Russia’s oil refining capacity is idle, says Chris Weafer, head of the consulting firm Macro-Advisory. “This is happening at a critical time for the Russian economy, as harvest season begins,” he emphasizes. To mitigate the gasoline crisis, Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter, has decided to do something previously unthinkable: import gasoline by sea. According to Reuters, purchases of Indian gasoline have begun, and the first shipments—approximately 60,000 tons—will arrive at one of the ports soon. Kazakhstan has also agreed to supply 50,000 tons of gasoline as part of humanitarian aid.

For Russia, this is useful, but not a significant support, notes Freedom Finance analyst Vladimir Chernov: “If we take summer consumption of approximately 110,000 tons of gasoline per day, then 50,000 tons is less than half of one day’s demand across the country. Even taking into account the current gap between production and consumption, this volume would be enough for about a couple of days of shortage.” Therefore, Kazakhstan can cover the most acute shortages in certain regions, but it won’t completely replace the normal operation of Russian refineries, Chernov emphasizes.Long lines at gas stations are fueling growing discontent among people already suffering from inflation, internet restrictions, and dwindling hopes for a quick end to the war. 

“It’s clear there’s a social crisis related to fuel, and it could develop into a political one, although there haven’t been any serious consequences yet,” notes political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov. “This is exacerbating a sense of fatigue, which is turning into irritation. But since people lack the tools to change the situation, all they do is grumble about the authorities and the fact that the war isn’t ending,” Kolesnikov says.

https://ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/02/krizis-tolko-nachinaetsya-defitsit-benzina-vrossii-mozhet-zatyanutsya-namesyatsi-a199872