16.12.2025
In recent weeks, the Russian occupation army has significantly intensified attacks. On some days, the number of combat clashes exceeds 300. However, it is not worth saying that this is the enemy’s last push. It still has enough resources, both human and military-technical, to advance at least until the spring of next year. At the same time, the collapse of the Russian front is inevitable, since not all of its resources can be replenished.
As for the enemy’s immediate plans, they are to capture the entire Donetsk region within its administrative borders by the spring of 2027. However, this task may prove to be too difficult. For example, the enemy will have to overcome the urban agglomeration of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka, and this is a “very tough nut to crack.” At the same time, the Defense Forces also do not intend to sit idly by. They continue to strengthen their defenses, as well as actively operate in other areas of the front.
This forecast was voiced by military expert Vladislav Seleznyov in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrsky, the enemy has significantly intensified. On some days, the number of combat clashes exceeds 300, which is practically a record. At the same time, we remember that the occupation army has been conducting an offensive since October 2023. At what cost can the enemy afford such periods of increased activity? Could this be some last gasp of desperation?
– The enemy’s activity is determined by the availability of resources. Accordingly, if he has something to fight with, he uses these resources and attacks us at various borders and positions. Last month, in November, there was also a surge, over 300 combat clashes during the day, but on other days, when the intensity is somewhat lower, it still exceeds the figure of 200 or more.
It is obvious that the enemy has the resources and the appropriate motivation to implement at least part of Putin’s plans, for the sake of which he launched the so-called special military operation. This is primarily about the occupation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. That is why most of the fighting is taking place on the territory of our Donetsk region.
As for the claims that this is the last push, I am not a supporter of such a story. Remember last year, at the end of August, then General Budanov stated that by the beginning of October the enemy’s offensive potential would be exhausted. October 2024 has passed, October 2025 has passed, December is in full swing, and the enemy’s offensive potential is still not depleted, he has the opportunity to attack. Therefore, I think that it is not worth making statements that the enemy is about to run out of resources.
Let’s look at this story through the numbers. Just last week, former President of the Russian Federation Medvedev, while holding a meeting, stated that 400 thousand citizens of the Russian Federation had signed relevant contracts with the Russian army and another 34 thousand volunteers had joined the ranks of the occupation army. Our intelligence claims that in 2025 the Russians added another 67 thousand to the forces and equipment involved in the so-called SVO, bringing the total number to 710 thousand. That is, on the one hand, 434 thousand who were there during 2025, and on the other hand, an increase of 67 thousand.
Thus, there is some kind of natural decline. Where does it come from? Obviously, this is the result of the effective work of the Ukrainian army in defense. Every month, 30 thousand or even more killed and maimed Russian servicemen are a given that Russia faces on the battlefield. Moreover, 65% of these figures are precisely those killed or those Russian servicemen who have already died from wounds. The figures are truly terrible, but the Russian General Staff is happy with this, and they are ready to literally cover the Ukrainian lands with the corpses of their soldiers in order to enslave them.
What should we understand in principle in this context? The enemy will continue to conduct active combat operations, because it is not yet possible to speak of a complete depletion of its offensive potential. The Russian economy is working, relevant resources are sold both to Western countries and, first of all, to China and India, respectively, there is money for waging war. There are also human resources to replenish these very assault units, which continue to attack our borders and positions every day.
Therefore, I will not risk talking about stagnation, at least in the foreseeable future. There is no reason to count on it. But, as they say, water whittles down stone, so the measures that our Defense Forces are carrying out within the framework of strategic defense, gradually exhausting the offensive potential of the Russian army, our middle strikes and deep strikes, are gradually eroding the combat power of the Russian army.
Yes, the collapse will not happen tomorrow or even the day after tomorrow, but in some distant future it will happen, because some of the enemy’s resources are in short supply. For example, the past day (December 14. – Ed.) demonstrated the rather effective work of our Defense Forces in counter-battery combat and artillery duels. More than six and a half dozen artillery systems were destroyed. This is a good result.
It is clear that the Russians partially compensate for these positions by supplying them from North Korea, but they cannot fully replenish these resources. Plus, pay attention: recently, armored vehicles have been extremely rare on the battlefield. In exceptional cases, the enemy uses tanks on the most priority sections of the front. Why? Because this equipment is doomed on the battlefield. The modern kill zone leaves no chance for any armored equipment, no matter how protected it is by both electronic warfare systems and physical elements that should effectively counteract drones. But no. This option does not work. If not with one drone, then with a dozen drones we will definitely and guaranteedly burn any Russian tank, even the most modern one.
Thus, in these conditions, the factor of adaptation of actions to the conditions of modern warfare is decisive. Therefore, most likely, we are unlikely to see any stagnation on the battlefield. The enemy has a sufficient number of manpower, after all, 710 thousand is a lot. Accordingly, the fighting will continue in December, and in January, and until spring, because there will definitely be enough resources to conduct active offensive operations.
The accents are obvious: the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Russians are running out of deadlines. What they planned to do as part of the summer offensive campaign failed. Now they are trying to compensate for it.
I constantly repeat that the enemy has three priority areas: the first is the creation of a strike bridgehead in the Lyman direction. We see the intensification of hostilities in the Lyman and Siversk areas. The second is the creation of a bridgehead in the Chasovy Yar area. We see continuous fighting on this section of the front. And the third is the creation of a bridgehead in the Toretsk area.
The fighting taking place there, as well as the fighting taking place in the Pokrovska and Myrnograd areas, indicates that the enemy is still trying to create strike bridgeheads from where he wants to attack our urban agglomeration simultaneously from three directions, which includes Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka.
– But you must admit, there is already good news. If you look at the map of hostilities, you can see that Kupyansk is finally not painted red. We saw President Zelensky, who was in Kupyansk. Another good news is that the total number of the occupation army is practically unchanged – it is 710 thousand, despite constant replenishment. And another good news – the aggressor is postponing the terms of the complete “liberation” of the Donetsk region to the spring of 2027. According to your estimates, can we expect that a significant turning point in our favor is possible in the spring?
-– War is a non-linear thing. You cannot calculate an arithmetic mean to claim that a particular territory will be captured by a certain period of time. Sometimes the enemy has the ability to attack with force and resources and advance into the depths of our defense, sometimes he is forced to dig into the ground and not advance even a meter on a particular section of the front, because the key factor that influences this process is the resource factor.
Since we do not have a complete picture of the plans of the Russian General Staff, I would not venture to say that by the spring of 2027 the enemy will be able to completely occupy the entire territory of the Donetsk region. Why? The fact is that the urban agglomeration, which includes Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Konstantinovka, is a very “tough nut to crack”, a powerful network of defensive structures has been created around these settlements, and it is obvious that it will be extremely difficult to overcome them. Fighting in urban areas is an extremely difficult type of combat.
Since March 2024, fighting has been ongoing in the Chasov Yar area. On the western outskirts of this city, in settlements that are satellite settlements of Chasov Yar, fighting is still taking place, and these settlements are partially under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. That is, in the town of Chasov Yar with a pre-war population of ten thousand, fighting has been going on for a year and a half. Therefore, one can imagine how long the fighting will last in Kramatorsk with its huge high-rise buildings, with a huge industrial area.
Therefore, the enemy can have any ambitious plans, they can build any projections in terms of determining the time indicators when they will be able to capture certain sections of the front on the territory of our Donetsk region. But, as they say, a fool is richer in thought. There are absolutely obvious intentions of the Ukrainian General Staff to ensure the stability of our defense. Accordingly, in order for the enemy to have no illusions, the effective work of our Defense Forces continues on other sections of the front.
Please note: the enemy was already clapping his hands, claiming that he had completely taken control of the front section that unites Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Vuzlovy. But you see how the situation has changed dramatically. And now Vladimir Putin looks like a fool , who earlier, relying on the statements of his general staff, tried to assure everyone that Kupyansk was completely under the control of the Russian army. No, not under control. And the prospects for the enemy are quite shaky, because it is extremely difficult for him to count on large-scale success with the current disposition of the Russian occupation troops and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
After all, the problems we faced just a month ago in the Kupyansk area were caused by completely irrational, and often unprofessional, decisions of some brigade commanders of the Ukrainian Defense Forces operating in this sector of the front. Lies and failure to provide relevant real reports on the situation on the ground led to the fact that we lost certain lines and positions. But as a result of certain efforts, under the leadership of the relevant commanders, we managed to stabilize the situation.
Creating lots more fires in mafia refineries and oil depots, and sinking or damaging more shadow fleet ships, will accelerate the collapse.