Kateryna Hirnyk11:30, 10.12.24
Putin’s obsession with the war in Ukraine has reduced Russia’s ability to influence events in other countries.
After the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria , the Kremlin’s biggest ally in the Middle East, Russian state media tried to downplay the significance of the event for Moscow, saying that the war in Ukraine took priority. However, The Times writes , not all Kremlin supporters have accepted this view, with some already calling the event “a colossal geopolitical defeat for Russia.”
According to analysts, Putin’s obsession with the war in Ukraine has led to a decrease in Russia’s ability to influence events in other countries, in particular, to the weakening of the Kremlin’s military-strategic capabilities in Syria.
“Russia has been present in Syria since Soviet times. And Putin ruined everything in two weeks. And for what? To capture another village in Ukraine?”, – noted one of the Moscow journalists.
Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow think tank Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, notes that Moscow currently does not have sufficient military power, resources, influence, and authority for effective force intervention outside the former Soviet Union.
“You can bluff about your strength and capabilities on the world stage, but it’s important not to start believing your own bluff,” he said.
At the same time, The Times writes, there is a possibility that Syria was important to Putin because it gave him the opportunity to challenge the West and test new weapons, which he can now do in Ukraine on a much larger scale. There are also fears that if Russia completely withdraws its troops from Syria, it will transfer them to the battlefields in the Donbas.
It is worth noting that Russia’s failure in Syria comes against the backdrop of its weakening influence in other countries. One can recall the failed attempt to thwart Moldova’s accession to the EU, the annulment of the results of the first round of presidential elections in Romania, where the pro-Russian ultranationalist Calin Georgescu won, as well as protests against the pro-Russian ruling party in Georgia.
While there is not always a direct link between the war and the Kremlin’s inability to impose and maintain its influence beyond its borders, Russia’s massive losses in Ukraine have undermined faith in its power, says Ben Dubow, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
“Winning victories on the battlefield is the only sure way to restore trust, but any new military adventures will be associated with the risk of new defeats and new invitations to challenge Russian power,” he notes.
The collapse of the Assad regime
As a reminder, on December 8, the Syrian army command informed officers about the fall of President Bashar Assad’s regime .
As UNIAN reported, military expert Mikhail Zhirokhov believes that the Russian invaders will transfer planes and helicopters from Syria to the war against Ukraine . According to him, most of these planes are Su-34s, which are carriers of guided aerial bombs.
(C)UNIAN 2024
One less torturing monster to worry about. But the fall of Asshat means that putler can use his formally Syria-based vermin to murder more Ukrainians.
If only the allies would summon up the decency and fortitude to destroy them before they can leave!
From what I have read, russia have transferred most of their equipment back to the war in Ukraine a long time ago, hence the ease at which the rebels walked all over Assad’s army.