Jason Jay Smart
Jason Jay Smart, Ph.D., is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. Due to his work with the democratic opposition to Pres. Vladimir Putin, Smart was persona non grata, for life, by Russia in 2010. His websites can be found at http://www.JasonJaySmart.com / http://www.AmericanPoliticalServices.com / fb.com/jasonjaysmart / Twitter: @OfficeJJSmart
Dec 30, 2024
The following OpEd comes from Jason’s LinkedIn page :
⚡️The Russian economy is imploding, threatening Vladimir Putin’s grip on power. His Keynesian strategy to counter Western sanctions—based on subsidized spending and artificially low interest rates—has backfired catastrophically, plunging the country into a boom-and-bust cycle now entering its most devastating phase.
The housing market, propped up by state-subsidized mortgages at rates as low as 7% (despite real inflation estimated at 27% by Dr. Steve Hanke), is collapsing. Mortgage debt has surged to over 40% of bank lending portfolios, while household debt is at a record 22% of GDP. Once dominating housing transactions, mortgages now make up only 20% of sales, with 80% being cash purchases. Sellers are slashing prices by up to 50%, and non-performing loans are soaring, threatening to sink regional banks, which hold 40% of the market. Developers, crippled by overbuilding during the boom, are defaulting on bonds, leading to widespread losses across the construction sector.
The ripple effects are devastating. The Russian stock market has seen all sectors decline sharply, with Gazprom down 16.7%, Ozon 23.7%, and RUSAL 23.8% in just one month. Inflation has spiraled out of control, forcing the cost of potatoes to rise by 80% this year alone, with car prices expected to jump 20% after New Year’s. The ruble has lost over 10% of its value three times in a single month, reflecting deep structural weaknesses. Russia’s national budget, calculated on oil prices of $72 per barrel, faces severe strain as global production rises and prices fall. Experts predict the ruble may require a devaluation of 22-35% to sustain government spending.
International support is absent. China, dealing with its own economic woes—including an 18% youth unemployment rate and a real estate debt crisis—has limited capacity to assist Russia. Furthermore, China conducts > 60% of its trade with the U.S. and Europe versus around 2% with Russia and is unlikely to risk sanctions for a marginal ally.
Public dissatisfaction is growing as the economy crumbles. Living costs are skyrocketing, wages are stagnant, and layoffs are widespread. In 2024, over 130,000 jobs were cut in 457 companies, including global tech giants like Tesla, Amazon, and Google. The regime’s promise of economic stability is collapsing, and so is Putin’s political contract with his people.
Historically, economic collapse has toppled autocrats, and Russia’s current trajectory mirrors these patterns. Putin’s inability to stabilize the economy or shield ordinary Russians from hardship is eroding his legitimacy among both the public and the elites. With rising discontent, fractured loyalty from oligarchs, and economic freefall, Russia is on the brink of political upheaval. The collapse of Putin’s regime may no longer be a distant prospect—it is rapidly becoming an imminent reality.
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Comment from Kirill Kovanlenko, a ruZZian with (unfortunately) a Ukrainian name. He runs a financial services company based at Muskovy-On-Sea, AKA Limassol (Cyprus). :-
Guys, I just been there 2 weeks ago.(Moscow and the regions) Besides construction sector stalling, everything else is booming, record outputs in many industries, besides military. 300 new industrial plants in 2024 alone. few hundred satellites launched, including a starlink equivalent in works, infrastruction spending in tens of billions of usd’s. Record sgriculturals exports and so on…
So, keep reading that ai
author fantasies…😂 Fake analysis.
Reply from Eddy Pollers:
Everything is booming? That’s true for inflation, interest rates, the number of Russians dying, and the amount of money the Kremlin needs to pay to attract ‘volunteers’ for the war.
The losses of Gazprom are also booming.
On the other hand: air & train traffic are falling apart, and the ‘shadow fleet’ is assembled from wrecks, such as the 2 ships that broke apart in the Black Sea, and China is starting to colonize the Russian economy ..
Christopher J. Wajnikonis
- The way we approach ruZZia is nonsensical.
- We all need to realize it, but few in the West do.
- In ruZZia it’s even worse. The enormous majority believes Putin’s LlΣS. Those ruZZians ‘live’ in their parallel ‘reality’ – believe that Putin fights NATO & nazis in Ukraine, because they hear that 24/7 on ruZZian media.
- They support restoring the ussr & they’re prepared to suffer unbelievable hardship & any number of casualties for that.
- Even most ruZZians in the West & most of their ‘opposition’ share ## 3 & 4 with those in ruZZia.
Arguing or negotiation with the above is pointless. It’ll never shift what they want & believe. The only chance for anything positive is to defeat them, or put them in a position they cannot win. That can’t be achieved by diplomacy – they only understand force. They must feel our military strength first.
During the last 25 years we’ve been doing everything opposite to what we should have been doing.
A. That only encourages Putin.
B. That has 0% chance of any success.
C. That has a 100% chance of our failure.
D. That will continue until we wake up & start doing what we should’ve been doing. This could start at any moment, it can start now. Otherwise we’re doomed.
These are counter-intuitive matters difficult for us to understand. It is our duty to help in that understanding both among:
- our Governments,
- all of us.
Experiencing wars makes people understand quickly; it did during WW II.
Now everybody in Ukraine & many around Ukraine already understand. We need to bring everybody else onboard before it is too late to prevent WW III. The chance for our ‘road to Damascus’ moment is escaping fast.
As the paper from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) I’ve highlighted has noted our Administration does not understand ruZZia or their duty towards Americans.
It was similar in 1938-1940, when only Churchill understood Hitler, & initially Churchill was ridiculed for that. Luckily for the UK & for us all Churchill was around when everybody understood too… And he was a tremendous Leader. Otherwise the war result would have likely been different.
Is it really necessary for a war to start for people & leaders to understand? – I do not think so, but at the moment it looks like we must find (a) Leader(s) in Europe. Will they start leading before it is too late? It is very late already… America must be taken along with properly lead Europe before it is too late on both sides of the Atlantic.
Chris Wajnikonis says :
“Arguing or negotiation with the regime is pointless. It’ll never shift what they want & believe. The only chance for anything positive is to defeat them, or put them in a position they cannot win. That can’t be achieved by diplomacy – they only understand force. They must feel our military strength first.”
But still, no one in the west “gets” this. Until they do, the horror continues.
Jason’s work with the KP shows that he is indeed an expert. I don’t share his optimism for the putinaZi economy going down the crapper anytime soon, but God willing, he is right.
Evil shitholes like India continue to prop up the rat nazi. They need to be hammered to fuck with sanctions and putler’s rustbucket shadow fleet needs to be put right out of business.
Brainwashed slaves would rather eat their own children than rise against their daddy.
Clearly, Kirill Kovanlenko is a propagandist moron, who enjoys lying for his short führer.
So, the construction sector is stalling, yet he contradicts himself by claiming 300 new industrial plants in 2024 alone were built. Of course, with zero proof.
And then he claims that mafia land launched hundreds of satellites, yet, according to Yuri Borisov, the director general of the Russian space corporation Roscosmos, mafia land launched 99 in 2024, many of which are very small satellites. Don’t forget the grain of salt.
And then he claims that mafia land is spending tens of billions of usd’s on infrastructure, which says nothing at all. Mafia land’s infrastructure is in shambles, and even if his claim is true, which he doesn’t back up with evidence, it would clearly be far too little to bring the system up to par. It might be enough to reduce the dilapidation a little, but that’s about it. I think the gigantic shit fountain in moskovia is proof enough to show in what shitty condition the shithole’s infrastructure is in. Pun intended.
As for the agricultural exports by mafia land, I have no info that don’t rely on mafia lies, but if true, then it was achieved with the help from stolen agricultural products from occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.