3.05.2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
The collapse of Russia will begin with its loss of Crimea, and it will begin to lose Crimea after the destruction of the Kerch Bridge . Next, active hostilities will spread to the north and northeast, until the entire Russian front collapses.
By summer, the balance of power at the front will be completely different. This forecast was voiced by anti-Russian activist, head of the Stop Russian Terror Foundation (USA) German Obukhov in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– Putin’s “inauguration” is scheduled for May 7. Do you think there could be any surprises during the ceremony, unexpected statements by the Kremlin dictator regarding his new goals and imperial ambitions?
– Most likely, nothing sensational will happen, because everything has already happened. There, in the Kremlin, they no longer know where to go: forward, backward, left, right… After all, America has already announced serious assistance to Ukraine. France and Great Britain also had their say. I just returned from the Baltic countries – they are quite determined there, although they do not have as many forces as these countries have.
Putin’s task is to freeze this conflict for as long as possible, since his stay in power, his freedom and life depend on it. Therefore, I don’t expect anything from him either on May 7 or May 9. Well, they will show you some captured enthusiastic equipment. But everything has already been said.
– What trends do you notice in Russian society now? Hasn’t it sobered up?
– In Russian society today there are the same trends that were in German society on the eve of World War II. It can’t be any other way. Despite the fact that there was no Internet then, propaganda ate the brains of the majority so much that seemingly smart people began to think inappropriately. Convincing half the country is a very difficult task.
What should the West do here? I think insight will come only after some serious defeats on the battlefield. As soon as Russia loses Crimea, the authorities will begin to crumble. And, most likely, this is what everything is heading towards. I can’t say how this will happen, I’m not a military expert. But I know for sure that this is definitely in the plans of serious people in the West. Probably Ukraine too. Of course, we are not told everything.
– You said that the loss of Crimea would be critical for the regime. What about the loss of Chechnya? The Sunday Times report said that if Kadyrov dies, Putin could face a threat to the stability of Chechnya. Do you think Putin should worry not only about the loss of Crimea, but also about the loss of the republics?
– It’s not just Chechnya. There are also Yakutia, Tatarstan, and other autonomous republics that are not happy that they are part of the Russian Federation and are sending their young people to war. This is how the Kremlin is actually bleeding nations dry.
As for Chechnya, I would not say that it would be a disaster if Kadyrov suddenly dies. There are already established relations established between this small republic and Moscow. Losing control over Chechnya is hardly realistic as long as Moscow has power resources. But the loss of Crimea is already more painful than even the conditional loss of Chechnya.
Therefore, catastrophic events on the battlefield are more important here than inside Russia. Actually, it was the same in Germany – it split after it lost the war, although before the Allies and Soviet troops entered Germany, there were still hopes that this country could be saved.
But no one will enter Russia, because it itself will disintegrate. For collapse you need a loss in Ukraine. And everything is moving towards this, despite the talk that the empire is monolithic, that it cannot fall apart. This is all nonsense.
– Indeed, they often say that Putin’s loss in Ukraine will lead to the collapse of the Russian Federation. But why such a direct relationship? Earlier you said that Russian society has been processed by propaganda. That is, Putin today is considered by Russians zombified by propaganda as a kind of Kipling’s Akela. If “Akela missed”, does he cease to be a leader? Will this fact of weakness, inability to win, bring people into the streets? Or will he intensify the activities of the elites? What is the mechanism?
– I don’t know how correct it is to compare Putin with Akela. It is even incorrect to compare him with Hitler, because Hitler, unlike Putin, cared about the Germans in his own way. He built roads, paid people good wages. But Putin doesn’t care what happens in the outback. It is important for him that Moscow lives well.
It is a mistake to call him a dictator. He is the head of the mafia. Without removing them all – Patrushev, Volodin, Matvienko and others – there is no point in waiting for change.
But Russia will collapse not because there will be some kind of riot in Moscow. There is unlikely to be a riot there; Muscovites live quite well, as do St. Petersburg residents. But because the regions will understand that they will either die or run away from Moscow. The Far East, Yakutia, Siberia, Chechnya, Dagestan… There are many regions living on starvation rations.
They now live off the fact that they pay money to those going to war. Due to this, thousands of families survive and somehow support the economy. When the war is lost, all this will stop. And then in Khabarovsk, Yakutsk, Makhachkala they will ask: Putin, who are you anyway? Why are we going to feed you? We have nothing to eat ourselves.
In my opinion, such a process is more likely than some kind of revolt of the elites in Moscow, although it is also not excluded. But this will be a change of fortune: Putin will be removed and Patrushev or someone else will be installed. That is, nothing will change from this, because the elite is interested in maintaining power and their capital.
On the other hand, they can try to negotiate with the West, but I’m not sure that the West will swallow all this and say: okay, let’s unfreeze your capital. I don’t think it will work that way.
– To summarize, we can say that there is only one real option to eliminate the threat that is called Putin’s Russia: just help Ukraine win this war?
– In general, yes. And here I see a completely obvious path – this is Crimea. Start from the Crimean Bridge, and then some kind of special operation – and that’s it. And the entire front to Donetsk will crumble, because there will be no rear. Crimea is a powerful rear. Without him, all this is lost. Then everyone will run away like cockroaches – from near Kherson, from Nikolaev, Berdyansk, etc.
When this will happen, I cannot say. This could be in the summer, maybe in the fall. But the assistance that will come to Ukraine is serious. F-16 and ATACMS fighters will appear. Another good pill is the destruction of most oil refineries in the Russian Federation, airfields, etc. Therefore, in addition to the battlefield, there is something to work with.
But I am sure that Russia cannot win without Western technologies. Of course, everything there has already been transferred to a military footing, but all the components needed are Western ones; in Russia there is no such thing. What can Iran and North Korea do? Perhaps they can do something, but this is a small thing.
So the picture for Ukraine is not so sad, but not so rosy, since the front is not yet sufficiently saturated with equipment. However, it goes on every day, and in the summer there will be a different balance of forces. I hope all be fine.
When the bridge gets destroyed, this might be enough to make the clay empire shiver and shake to its very sandy foundations.
Once the bridge is destroyed, how many minutes after, before putler threatens to nuke everyone?
Three?
Like he’s done many times before? You know what’s said about guys who cry “wolf” too often? Nobody listens to them anymore. 🙄
Then everyone will run away like cockroaches – from near Kherson, from Nikolaev, Berdyansk, etc.
I’m not sure if it was intentional, but the reference to cockroaches is very fitting.
Yes, it is. 😁
I’m not an expert. But is it worth attacking the bridge at this time of the war, when the Ukrainian defense is extremely weakened and is having great difficulty containing the push of the Nazis from the Kremlin? It would take up to 20 missiles (Taurus type) to successfully complete the operation, not counting all other intercepted missiles. I do not believe that Ukraine can afford such luxury at the moment. It is absolutely necessary to take care of priority military targets behind the lines (stock, bases, etc.)
In addition, Crimea will soon benefit from rail access via the occupied territories, which represents a much greater logistical threat. Here too it is essential to tackle it before this damn bridge.
I see your point. Destroying valuable military targets are always a priority.
But, what good is this strategy when those items keep getting replaced? This is where logistics comes into play. No supplies, no war. Period.
A key feature in logistics is the bridge. Bridges have been, are, and always will be vital components in any logistic systems. The Kerch Bridge happens to be a very big bridge that can handle a very large volume of traffic, both road traffic and rail traffic. It’s the single biggest asset for supplying the entire southern frontline regions for the roaches. Destroy it, and, concurrently, keep the supply ships at bay, and the war machine of the enemy will spit and sputter and eventually stop.
Even thirty or forty missiles are worth destroying this bridge. Otherwise, you will be endlessly trying to find ammo dumps, command posts, fuel depots and other vital assets of the enemy and use those missiles on them. Destroy the bridge, and they will eventually run out of fuel, food, and ammo on their very own.
Then, there’s the political implication. The loss of the Kerch Bridge would be like an earthquake in mafia land. You can bet on it.
The important thing to do in my opinion is to drop the bridge before Vladolf finishes his new train route to the Donbas. I think a bridge would be easier to destroy than very repairable rail tracks.
That’s what I’m hoping for.
On the other hand, the new railroad also has to rely on bridges, which can be demolished. Although they are much smaller than the Kerch Bridge, they still are far more difficult to repair than tracks.
Budanov in a recent interview highlighted the main threat posed by the line linking Rostov to Crimea and that it was imperative to deal with it.
Without demolishing it, with constant attacks the bridge is currently not a logistical resource that is operating at full capacity (dixit Yusov). In a way, the Kerch Bridge is virtually dead.
The railway is a great threat because it is a much more difficult route to block because it is much more easily repaired and above all it shortens the logistical route by 200 km unless I am mistaken.
That said, I always have a bottle in the fridge in reserve in case the bridge serves as a backdrop for the fish. 🙂
Don’t believe the baloney that the Kerch Bridge is not working at capacity. Even the ruskies would be complete fools by not using it to full capacity.
The new railway is also dependent on bridges that can be destroyed, stopping all traffic dead in their tracks. Pun intended.