9 April 2026
The Central Bank reported a sharp drop in payments through its payment system. In the first quarter, incoming payments were on average 5% lower than the average in the fourth quarter, with the decline accelerating month-on-month: 2.4% lower in January, 4.5% lower in February, and 8.1% lower in March. Similar declines were seen in July of last year, and before that, during the pandemic.
Over the year, incoming flows decreased by 11.4% (Q1 compared to January–March 2025). Taking into account accumulated inflation during this period, the real decline reaches 17%.
The Central Bank attributes the decline to low commodity prices. According to its data, export revenues arrive in Russia with a lag of approximately two months, meaning that in the first quarter, revenues arrived in November-January, when Russian oil prices were at their lowest. In sectors with external demand, cash flows declined by 19% in March and 13.5% quarter-on-quarter compared to the average for the fourth quarter.
But even excluding production and refining, revenues fell 2.8% in March and 1% for the quarter.
Consumer demand-related sectors suffered losses: 6.4% in March and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter. This was primarily due to a decline in real estate transactions and a decline in retail trade, according to the Central Bank. According to Dom.RF, after a January surge before the tightening of “family mortgage” terms, new home sales plummeted by a third in February; data for March is not yet available.
However, the decline in retail receipts “diverges from the dynamics of other operational indicators of consumer demand in March,” the Central Bank notes in surprise. Economist Yegor Susin points to a significant acceleration in the growth of cash in the economy in March amid problems with the internet and cashless payments: by 1.6% month-on-month and 12.2% year-on-year, according to the Central Bank. While the share of cash in the money supply remains extremely low (14.1%), “the trend is not very positive – 250-300 billion rubles above ‘normal’ levels in one month,” Susin writes.
T-Bank Chief Economist Sofia Donetsk, based on an analysis of client transactions, notes a modest increase in spending across all consumer categories in March: “All per capita purchases increased by 1% year-on-year, and by 4% in supermarkets. Both figures are below inflation.”
The Central Bank is not commenting on the contraction of financial flows, but it clearly reflects ongoing processes in the economy: a virtual halt in growth and the ongoing displacement of the civilian sector by industries related to the military-industrial complex. These factors softened the decline. The growth drivers were incoming payments in the production of “other vehicles and equipment,” finished metal products, scientific research and development, and building construction, the Central Bank notes.
This year, business activity in the Russian economy has barely improved, according to the Central Bank’s enterprise monitoring. In January, the business climate indicator (BCI) calculated based on this data was only 0.2 points, and in February it was -0.1 – the first negative reading since September 2022, when the mobilization began (zero separates business activity from decline). In private businesses, business activity has been declining since the middle of last year, according to S&P Global surveys.
Banks collapsing, dams collapsing, army collapsing. It isn’t looking good for mafia land.