19 December 2025
Russian oil prices continue to plummet under pressure from US sanctions, which have disrupted established commodity export flows to India and China.
According to RBC, citing Argus data, the price of Urals crude shipped from the port of Novorossiysk fell to $34.52 per barrel as of December 16, half the level at the beginning of the year.
In the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, Russian oil companies’ main export grade was selling for $36.07 per barrel. Discounts on Urals reached $23-25 per barrel in Novorossiysk and $24 in Baltic ports, according to Argus data.
Some Urals consignments that Russia is trying to sell to China are selling at discounts of up to $35 per barrel, Reuters sources told Reuters. This translates into a price below $30—a record low since the pandemic. Russian oil companies are being forced to lower prices to sell consignments that Indian refineries have begun to refuse, the agency’s sources explained.
Russian oil is selling at 30%, and in some cases, 50%, less than Brent, notes Janis Kluge, a research fellow at the German Institute for International Security Studies. As a result, the Russian budget is “losing billions of dollars monthly due to sanctions,” he stated. In November, according to the Ministry of Finance, oil and gas revenues plummeted by 34% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 21% over the past 11 months. And in December, according to Reuters calculations , oil and gas tax collections could be the lowest since August 2020 – 410 billion rubles, a 49% decrease from December 2024.
Initially, the Ministry of Finance based its 2025 budget on an oil price of $69, planning to collect 10.94 trillion rubles in taxes from oil and gas companies. Midyear, the plan was lowered by almost a quarter, to 8.65 trillion rubles, and the projected oil price was reduced to $58. In fact, the budget could be short about 300 billion rubles, even compared to the already-downgraded plan, according to Gazprombank analysts.
The overall deficit of the Russian budget system, including the federal budget, regional budgets, the Social Fund, and the Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund, could reach 8 trillion rubles this year, or 4% of GDP, and this would be the highest since 2020, according to economist Viktor Tunev.
Add these losses to the ones caused by Ukrainian sanctions, setting fire to oil refineries, oil depots, and oil tankers. Good times are coming for the mafia state.
$35 is still too high. It needs to drop below $10 a barrel, then putler might take flying lessons.
I agree. The lower, the better. However, adding the production costs with storage and transport costs, this price level is already a loss for them.