The Russian group on the peninsula risks being encircled
22 June 2023
On the night of June 22, an explosion occurred on the Chongarsky bridge , connecting mainland Ukraine with the Crimean peninsula. Through the bridge there is communication between the occupation base in Crimea and Russian troops in the Zaporozhye and Donetsk regions. The situation partially resembles the story of last year’s attacks on the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson, but in reality it opens up more opportunities for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to “corral” the Russians into an operational encirclement on the peninsula with the prospect of reaching the coast of the Sea of Azov. Read the details in the column of the military expert, Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the reserve Roman Svitan for “Apostrophe”.
The strike on the bridge in Chongar can be called sighting. Some are already comparing it with the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson, from which the de-occupation of the right bank of the Dnieper began, but here the situation is more complicated in military-strategic terms.
Judging by the nature of the damage on the canvas of the Chongarsky bridge, the explosion power was about 100-200 kg of TNT. The rocket broke through the bridge and exploded from below, so there may be several options. Probably hit with a GLSDB missile or Storm Shadow. Less likely, but still not worth discarding the option, but such a strike can be delivered with a planning bomb, as well as with the Harpoon missile.
First of all, GLSDB and Storm Shadow come to mind, since they have already worked in the south of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.
Read: “Crimea, are you sleeping?” What does the strike on the Chongar bridge mean?
What is important here is the very fact that they began to hit on the bridges in the occupied Crimea. The Chongarsky bridge is blocked, the damage is serious. Cargo that went through it to Melitopol and further to the occupied territories was redirected through Perekop and Armyansk. The Russians have increased the “delivery shoulder”, which increases the logistical risks for them. In addition, a road runs through Armyansk in the direction of Kherson, and there for the invaders there is a “dead end” – on the one hand, the Defense Forces of Ukraine, and on the other, the territories that they themselves flooded.
The invaders can transfer forces to Melitopol through the route they laid along the Arabat Spit through Gengorka (Genichenskaya Gorka), but there is a narrow road and you can also get Storm Shadow to it.
But this is only the beginning. Further, we will see more strikes against enemy positions and their logistical routes in the Crimea. We started from Chongar, but already now we should actively “feel” the so-called “Crimean bridge” across the Kerch Strait. It is this very artery that needs to be cut, through which about 30% of all Russian military ammunition for the occupying contingent in Ukraine passes.
It is important to understand that if we cut the Kerch-Feodosiya-Dzhankoy-Chongar-Melitopol logistics route in several places, or at least constantly “thresh” along it, then we will significantly simplify the advancement of the Ukrainian Defense Forces along the Orekhovo-Tokmak line. Then the exit to Melitopol, but the Russians dug in there very seriously and act on the forehead, like the “Wagner” under Bakhmutov, it’s just stupid for us. We, unlike Prigozhin, Shoigu, Gerasimov and other small-minded “commanders”, protect people and equipment, but without losing the combat pace.
It is much more rational to start hitting the “Crimean bridge”. One good blow or a series of hits can disable it for three to six months, and at best make it completely unusable. Next, you should hit the interchanges in Feodosia and, especially important, in Dzhankoy, where the Russians have not only a logistics center, but also a military base. By cutting off Kerch and Dzhankoy, we leave the Russian grouping in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions without a reliable rear.
Yesterday there was news about the undermining of the railway track in Feodosia. Good deal, but bridges are more important. A damaged track – this is how technically everything is arranged – is repaired from several hours to two days. In war, of course, every hour counts, but it is more profitable to destroy bridges, because it is much more difficult to restore them.
If we bring down or damage the bridge on Chongar and, most importantly, the “Crimean bridge”, then we won’t even have to storm Melitopol. We will go around it on the left and we can strike between Melitopol and Berdyansk in the Primorsk region. Thus, we will reach the Azov coast, breaking through the “land corridor” from the Rostov region of the Russian Federation to the occupied Crimea. In this case, the Russian grouping in the south finds itself in an operational encirclement.
I repeat, you need to start from the bridges in the Crimea, and only then go deeper through the territory of the Zaporozhye region from the sea side. The entire summer campaign for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south will revolve around these goals – a breakthrough towards the Azov coast and access to the territory of the administrative borders of Crimea. At the current pace, we should have a definite result by the end of summer. In a favorable situation, we can reach the Chongar-Dzhankoy line, starting the physical liberation of the peninsula.
“If we bring down or damage the bridge on Chongar and, most importantly, the “Crimean bridge”, then we won’t even have to storm Melitopol.”
Then, the entire occupied regions will fall on Ukraine’s lap like ripe fruit. Okay, maybe not that easy, but starving out the cockroaches first, before attacking, is a great way to save Ukrainian lives.
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