22.05.2026
Armenia’s parliamentary elections on June 7 go far beyond a simple domestic political vote. They will test the country’s strategy for rapprochement with the West. Since 2023, Armenia has definitively lost its long-running war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Since then, its leader, Nikol Pashinyan, has turned his attention to America and Europe and is working on a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. In a few weeks, Armenians will give their verdict on his efforts in a general parliamentary election. Opinion polls show he has a strong chance of winning.
Such a scenario is clearly not part of the Kremlin’s plans . Recent statements by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin confirm that Moscow will not let Armenia go so easily and views the current election campaign as a tough battle to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus.
About why the elections in Armenia are extremely important in the context of pan-European politics – in the material of OBOZ.UA.
Gradual release
A few years ago, it was hard to imagine that a CSTO member state would freeze its participation in the organization and begin to openly criticize the Russian security model . Yerevan refuses to finance the CSTO, distances itself from Russian integration mechanisms, and increasingly cooperates with the West. Armenia’s contacts with France, the EU, and the United States have especially noticeably intensified. The West is trying to gain a foothold in the region not only politically, but also economically and security-wise. For Armenia itself, this is a matter not only of ideology, but also of survival. The country is trying to reduce its critical dependence on Russian energy, logistics, and the market.
The key reason for the sharp change in public sentiment in Armenia was the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh. These events seriously undermined trust in Russia as a “guarantor of security.” For a significant part of Armenian society, it became obvious: Moscow was either unable or unwilling to really intervene at a critical moment. Russian peacekeepers, whose presence for years was presented as the “basis of stability in the region,” simply removed themselves. As a result, Yerevan increasingly began to question the feasibility of further dependence on the Kremlin.
After the Karabakh defeat, the course of the government of Nikol Pashinyan has noticeably changed. If earlier it was mainly about attempts to balance between Russia and the West, now in Armenia they are openly talking about a radical change in foreign policy, security alliances and economic ties. That is why, on the eve of the crucial parliamentary elections, Pashinyan invites European partners to Yerevan, and not traditional “allies” in the CSTO or the EAEU.
Two paths for Armenia
The current campaign has turned into a confrontation between two directions of the country’s future. The pro-European one is represented by the current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and the pro-Russian one is represented by Robert Kocharyan and Samvel Karapetyan.
Nikol Pashinyan proposes a model of gradual withdrawal from Russian dependence, normalization of relations with neighbors, opening of logistical routes, and expansion of cooperation with the West. His stake is to avoid another major war and attempt to transform Armenia into a more independent state.
Robert Kocharyan is associated with a return to a hardline pro-Russian line. His vision is a bet on a “strategic alliance” with Russia, confrontation with Azerbaijan and Turkey. He has long-standing personal ties with Putin. His trip to Moscow on the eve of the campaign only increased suspicions of direct support for the Kremlin. For Russia, this politician remains a much more predictable and controllable figure than Pashinyan.
Another representative of this trend is Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian oligarch. He owns a group of companies in Russia and is ranked 44th in the Forbes ranking of Russian billionaires, with an estimated fortune of $4.1 billion. In Armenia, he was accused, among other things, of publicly calling for a seizure of power and violating the territorial integrity of the country. He is under house arrest. Karapetyan’s “Strong Armenia” repeats the same narratives as Kocharyan’s political force.
According to the latest polls, Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party is gaining about 30% of the vote, significantly ahead of its closest pursuer, Karapetyan’s party.
Kremlin: direct threats and preparations for the fight for Armenia
Russia provides 85% of Armenia’s gas supplies and still has a military base there, while Russian companies control vital infrastructure. Russia recently banned the sale of Armenian Jermuk water on dubious sanitary grounds. However, banning mineral water alone is not enough for the Kremlin. In recent days, statements by Kremlin representatives and Putin himself indicate undisguised disappointment with yet another foreign policy defeat.
In Armenia itself, pro-European sentiment no longer seems marginal. The European Political Community summit in Yerevan has become much more important for the country than an ordinary diplomatic forum. For the first time, Yerevan has so openly demonstrated its readiness to integrate into the European political space and participate in discussions about the security of the continent, support for Ukraine, and deterrence of Russia. For the Kremlin, this looked especially painful; the very fact of holding a major European forum in a country where a Russian military base is still located has become a symbol of profound changes in the region.
A particularly important signal was the signing of a strategic partnership roadmap between Nikol Pashinyan and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The key idea of the document is the gradual formation of non-aligned status for Armenia by 2030. In essence, this means the beginning of the dismantling of the system of dependence on Russian integration structures.
The situation with pro-Russian influence in Armenia has seriously changed
The next parliamentary elections in Armenia are important from the point of view of the future of this country, because as of now we see that the country has actually begun to wind down joint geopolitical projects with Russia. Instead, Armenia has taken a clear course towards the European Union. This is evidenced by the official position, the policy of the current government, and support from the EU – this opinion was expressed in an exclusive comment to OBOZ.UA by Oleksandr Leonov, executive director of the Center for Applied Political Research “Penta”.
According to the expert, a particularly important step was the EU summit, which was recently held in Yerevan. Almost from the very beginning, the events had a clear anti-Russian orientation and concerned security, energy and other strategic issues. And the fact that Armenia hosted this summit became a very clear signal to Moscow. Russia saw and appreciated this and began to actually threaten Armenia with the “Ukrainian scenario.”
“Obviously, the decision to hold the summit in Yerevan was deliberate. They say, we don’t pay attention to your “zones of influence” or “historical borders”, we are ready to go where they are waiting for us. And from this point of view, this is a truly important moment. Especially considering that a Russian military base is still located in Armenia, and the country itself is becoming key to weakening Russian influence in the Caucasus. And all this is extremely important not only for Armenia, but also for the entire region and Europe in general,” says Alexander Leonov.
The expert points out that Russia’s attempts to influence the course of the election campaign and the results of the elections are obvious, because pro-Russian sentiments are present in Armenia. But the question is how much they can significantly affect the results in the current situation. After all, this is not the first election that Nikol Pashinyan has held. After the defeat in the war for Nagorno-Karabakh, he has already held early elections and, importantly, won them. In fact, he received carte blanche from society to end the war that lasted for decades. Another important factor. A significant part of Armenians, who were previously pro-Russian, now believe that Russia has betrayed them. And this will significantly affect the results of the elections. Especially since Armenia now has quite tangible economic gains. Its economy is on the rise, and this is also an important factor for the voter.
“Now Pashinyan has something to build his political game on. And this is very reminiscent of the situation with Ukraine after the Russian aggression against Crimea. Until 2014, most Ukrainians called Russians a “brotherly people”. After the annexation of Crimea and the start of the war, the situation changed dramatically. I think the attitude of a significant part of Armenians towards Russia also changed after Moscow did not come to their aid. And Pashinyan’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow was very indicative, when the Prime Minister of Armenia actually publicly demonstrated the difference between the Armenian and Russian models. Putin’s reaction was especially telling when Pashinyan spoke about democracy, fair elections and the absence of a ban on social networks. And this, in my opinion, indicates that the situation with pro-Russian influence in Armenia has already seriously changed,” Leonov emphasizes.
As for the fact that Putin actually threatened Armenia with the Ukraine scenario, according to Alexander Leonov, the Kremlin has always considered a similar scenario regarding the countries that are members of the CSTO. By the way, it was after the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine that amendments were made to the CSTO charter, which actually stipulated the possibility of assisting regimes in the event of internal unrest or “illegal revolutions.” And this mechanism, in fact, worked in Kazakhstan in January 2022.
“Armenia has actually already begun the implementation of its withdrawal from the CSTO. Yerevan talked about this even after the defeat in the war with Azerbaijan. And Russia is already openly stating that Armenia’s negotiations with the European Union are incompatible with participation in other structures. From this point of view, we see the beginning of the end of Russian geopolitical projects in the post-Soviet space. The CIS has long turned into an amorphous structure, and the CSTO has actually ceased to exist as a collective security system after Ukraine conducted an operation in Kursk. Then no country came to Russia’s aid, although the CSTO charter formally provided for this. But Armenia’s withdrawal will mean that the process of disintegration has already become irreversible. That is why these threats are being made,” Leonov believes.
According to him, the collapse of Russian influence in the post-Soviet space no longer looks like a hypothetical scenario. It is a matter of time. In fact, only Belarus remains in the zone of direct influence of the Kremlin due to the authoritarian nature of the regime. Other countries after 2022 began to actively distance themselves from Russia. Kazakhstan is doing the same. The visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping was indicative, after which a memorandum was signed, where China directly declared its readiness to protect Kazakhstan’s national security. This was a very clear signal to Moscow. Central Asia is now actively diversifying its ties. The countries of the region are holding separate summits, developing cooperation with China, Turkey and the European Union. A summit of Turkic states with the participation of Recep Tayyip Erdogan is due to take place soon.
“The problem for Russia is not only that these countries stop seeing benefits in it. They begin to see a threat in Russia. And this is the main factor,” Leonov stated.
Armenia seems to feel quite secure in moving in the current direction. I’m not sure what the mafia state could do to stop this development, given their extreme difficulties with Ukraine. We’ll see what happens in the coming days, weeks, or months.
Unfortunately they aren’t secure at all.
Putler will try to skank his man into power. If he fails he will invade.
And no one will help Armenia.