The Central Bank of Russia is developing measures in case of a deterioration in the financial condition of Russian banks, which in 2025 faced a sharp increase in loan delinquencies and a decline in profits.

This is reported by The Moscow Times.

For example, for banks whose financial indicators fall into the stress zone, directive restrictions on management bonuses may be introduced. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation plans to prepare a concept for such measures in the second half of this year.

In addition, bankers whose banks have encountered financial problems may be required to return bonuses they have already received (clawback). As the Central Bank of the Russian Federation explained, this is necessary to “increase management’s interest in maintaining the financial stability of banks.”

The Russian regulator is also preparing measures in case of a possible sharp outflow of client currency from banks: credit institutions may be limited in the size of their stressed currency position.

So far, the Russian banking system is doing well: in the first half of the year, credit institutions earned 1.7 trillion rubles, the same as last year. However, almost half of the top 100 banks have experienced a decline in profits or increased losses.

According to Russian bankers and officials, the banks have been struggling due to financing Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine . Since 2022, banks, in accordance with the decree of the Russian president, have been issuing soft loans to enterprises of the military-industrial complex, which are stamping tanks and bombs in a three-shift mode.

Defense factories are increasingly struggling to pay off these loans, and in addition, problems are arising among corporate borrowers, who have been hit by a sharp increase in interest rates. 

Russia could face a full-blown banking crisis within a year , Bloomberg bankers say. According to them, a number of banks may need help from the state in the form of capital injections.

However, the official data of the Central Bank of Russia does not show the real scale of the possible disaster , Bloomberg’s interlocutors emphasize: borrowers are postponing payments, and therefore loans are not yet included in the statistics as problematic, while in reality a large volume of loans is no longer being paid on schedule.

Problems await the Russian banking system regardless of the outcome of possible negotiations between Russian and US presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump: if Russia’s war against Ukraine ends, Russian defense factories will have nothing to pay for loans, and if not, the US may impose tough sanctions against Russia, which will further worsen the economic situation.

Previously, the Central Bank of Russia stated that the Russian economy could slow down to zero growth rates by the end of this year.

Previously, the head of the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade, Anton Alikhanov, stated that the growing problems in the civilian part of the Russian economy require the Russian authorities to support an increasing number of industries , but the budget, overloaded with military spending, will not be enough for this.

Previously, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the possibility of the risks of stagnation and recession in the Russian economy and ordered to prevent this from happening.

For her part, the head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, stated that the resources that allowed the Russian economy to show growth for two years in the face of a full-scale war against Ukraine and sanctions have been exhausted.

Author:  Halyna Yalivets Джерело: https://censor.net/n3570496

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