15.01.2025 

Russia’s air defense in Crimea is suffering from constant attacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have already “thinned out” the enemy’s air defense by a third. Recently, new S-400 complexes have been recorded in Crimea, in particular near Simferopol. This is another indication that the Russian air defense again needs to be restored due to the fact that the previous means were destroyed. This is also an indirect sign that the Ukrainian defenders are preparing a battlefield in Crimea.

In recent weeks, the Russian occupation army has been demonstrating activity in the Dnieper Delta in the south of the Kherson region, but such actions are nothing more than a maneuver to divert attention. Their goal is to draw Ukrainian forces here from other sections of the front, because the Russian army has no objective chances for a powerful offensive operation on this section of the front.

This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by naval expert, columnist for Defense Express magazine, researcher at the National Military History Museum of Ukraine, retired captain 1st rank Volodymyr Zablotsky.

– According to the Atesh partisan movement, Russia is strengthening air defense in Crimea. In particular, several S-400 systems and radar stations were recorded near the Gvardiyske airfield in the Simferopol region. In your opinion, is this evidence that the enemy has learned about certain plans of the Ukrainian Defense Forces regarding the peninsula? And do the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the opportunity to conduct active operations in Crimea at this stage of the war?

– I believe that the Ukrainian Defense Forces have already carried out such strikes on targets in Crimea, primarily on air defense systems, so the occupier was forced to replenish them with new reserves. However, the destruction of air defense systems is evidence of movement in the direction of the formation of the future battlefield. According to the classics of the genre, air defense systems are destroyed first, then aviation follows, which covers the remaining targets with bombs and missiles, and then ground forces begin to attack. This is approximately what it looks like.

That is, we strike, constantly destroy radar stations, airfields. And where there are airfields, there are bases with fuel. We see how such a base has been burning for almost a week in a row. So, this allows us to draw conclusions.

Air defense is one of the priority goals on the peninsula, so the enemy is replenishing these means. But the enemy’s problem is that Russia almost does not produce such means anymore. They do not have such an opportunity, time, or components. We have “thinned out” the approximately 350-400 air defense systems that Russia had at the beginning of the large-scale invasion by almost a third.

Unfortunately, it is too early to talk about a ground operation in Crimea, because the circumstances largely do not depend on us. However, the situation is not critical, it is controlled. We are successfully “grinding” the enemy’s offensive potential, its infantry and equipment. As for tanks, we already have an advantage in certain areas. There is progress in our favor, but it is time.

Currently, we have a ratio of 1:4 with the enemy, he outnumbers us many times, but if we evaluate the quality of weapons, then the advantage is on our side. And this indicator will increase in our favor. But not immediately. I think, in 2025-26.

– Could you clarify how much more difficult it is to destroy the S-400 complex compared to the S-300?

– The S-400 is a well-painted S-300. They are practically identical. The S-400 has a slightly different warhead, a homing system, and it has the ability to shoot down ballistic targets, as Russia claims. But it is difficult to distinguish them from the outside, they are the same. The S-300 is the previous version. The S-400 was originally called the S-300PMZ, and later renamed to make it simpler. But they were produced on the same assembly line, at the same factory.

Ukraine had almost all modifications of the S-300 on tracked and wheeled chassis. They still remain in our service, but there is a shortage of ammunition, because it has been three years of a major war.

– Which missiles, among those given to us by our allies, are best suited to destroy such enemy air defense systems?

– It doesn’t matter what kind of missile, what kind of weapon. Any that reaches them. But destroying air defense is a duel that involves oversaturating its capabilities, destroying radar stations first of all so that they don’t see fighters, reconnaissance aircraft, and drones. After that, a strike is launched.

The attack usually looks like this: first, drones pass by, including false targets, which distract and force the enemy to waste ammunition. They do the same when they attack us. This is a well-known tactic. And at the end, a high-precision, expensive missile is struck, and it hits the target.

We saw such an example in Sevastopol, when an enemy landing ship was destroyed by a precise strike, and then the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet. There were many examples, and I think there will be even more. The four command and control points that were hit the other week are evidence of the high-class work of Ukrainian military intelligence, its interaction with partners who provide us with certain information.

Ukraine must have a powerful, strong position in the upcoming negotiations, our military-political leadership emphasizes this. And a strong position is victory on the battlefield. The enemy does not understand any other language, especially one like Putin.

– It is clear that the enemy’s next target after Donetsk and Luhansk regions is Kherson and Zaporizhia. If you look at the map of the fighting, you can see that the enemy is maintaining activity in the Dnieper Delta area in the south, despite the fact that Pokrovsky obviously remains a priority for him. Do you see the danger of a breakthrough of the front here, in the south?

– No, I don’t see it. Maybe I’m wrong, but in my opinion, this is a diversionary maneuver designed to draw our forces away from the north and other areas of the front, in particular from Kursk. The enemy is imitating activity, but he does not have sufficient forces for a serious offensive. In addition, the Defense Forces occupy the high right bank and have an advantage in artillery. And the artillery shoots far behind the enemy’s rear and destroys everything it sees.

The enemy has no support there, he cannot organize logistics under fire. I’m not talking about drones and missile strikes. They also cannot gain a foothold, because there are swamps and lowlands. Attacking from the left bank to the right is a very difficult task.

By the way, we have our own bridgehead on the left bank, which is still held by the Marines. And the enemy is afraid of this, because from where the distance to the Crimean isthmus is only one day’s journey, there the distance is 50-60 kilometers. Moreover, no fortifications can be built there due to the sand and groundwater. The enemy digs – and there is already water.

As you know, the best form of defense is an offense. Therefore, the enemy is trying to attack. How many of them are there? It is difficult to count, but they still have a numerical advantage. Their principle is: if I can, I act. They believe that they can. Let them act. And we will destroy them. The year 2025 is dedicated to this.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/zsu-vpravno-proridili-vorozhu-ppo-v-krimu-ta-stvoryuyut-pole-boyu-intervyu-z-kapitanom-zablotskim.htm