29.05.2026
Thanks to the new means of destruction that appeared in the armament of the Ukrainian army, the Defense Forces managed to take fire control over the most important logistical route of the Russian occupation army, connecting the territory of the Russian Federation with the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, as well as the northern part of the Crimean peninsula. Now the enemy is forced to secretly move military cargo along secondary dirt roads, but even this does not save – Ukrainian intelligence reveals these enemy routes as well.
As a result, the military leadership of the aggressor country, Russia, is having to adjust plans for the summer offensive campaign, which will most likely fail, at least in the southern direction.
At the same time, amid problems with missile deliveries to American Patriot air defense systems, the situation with means of protection against enemy ballistics has worsened. However, the situation cannot be called catastrophic, since other Western partners of Ukraine do not stop supplying anti-ballistic means.
This opinion was expressed by military expert Vladislav Seleznyov in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– Great news for us – the actual establishment of fire control over the territories connecting Russia with the occupied territories of southern Ukraine. Do you think that this success could have very serious consequences for the further course of the war, in particular, in the south of our country?
– Logistics is what provides resources, what gives the opportunity to conduct both defensive and offensive operations effectively. We have gained access to the southern transport corridor of the Russian army. By the way, we have repeatedly talked about the fact that this is a very important corridor for the Russians, which runs along the northern coast of the Sea of Azov.
If we have the opportunity, for now, to burn military transport of the Russian army, not only along the Taganrog-Dzhankoy highway, but also in other areas – in the area of Luhansk and Donetsk, then this is certainly an important factor that weakens enemy military operations.
At one time, the Russian army was forced to apply a serious set of measures in order to withdraw its field depots, bases and arsenals from the line of combat contact to a distance of more than 80 kilometers. Then it was about the effective use by the Ukrainian army of HIMARS with a missile strike range of up to 80 kilometers. Now we have the opportunity to strike at a distance of up to 120 kilometers. Representatives of the Fire Point company claim that 150 and even 200 kilometers of combat work of strike drones is a prospect of the near future.
Accordingly, we will keep under control not only the logistical routes in the south of the Zaporizhia region, but also the north of the temporarily occupied Crimea .
Yes, of course, this route will not come under total control, because its length is very long, but the fact that we are able to take out the enemy’s logistics is a good story. Already now the enemy is forced to make adjustments to the movement of military motor transport, trying to move these vehicles along dirt secondary roads. But this does not work well, because the intelligence of the Ukrainian army works well, and on secondary roads enemy military vehicles are found and destroyed.
Yes, of course, the Russians had quite ambitious plans for the summer period of the offensive campaign this year in terms of attacks in the south of the Zaporizhia region. I believe that now the Russians will be forced to seriously adjust these plans, since without resources it is impossible to talk about the success of the Russian offensive operation in the south of the Zaporizhia region.
Another logistics route, which passes through the Kerch Bridge, is also constantly at risk. No one can guarantee the stability of this route.
This means that the Russians may have a great desire and plans to occupy the south of the Zaporizhia region, but will not be able to implement them due to the lack of sufficient resources.
– Can this event really be called a turning point in terms of the de-occupation of the south of our country? Is it still too early to talk about it?
– I think we should consider this as part of a certain strengthening of our capabilities to destroy enemy logistics and enemy military potential. But I wouldn’t risk saying that we will be able to launch a large-scale counteroffensive.
Let’s remember the events of the spring and summer of 2024. The counteroffensive operation of the Ukrainian army, when we were stuck on the defense line of General Surovikin. Then we used a huge amount of forces, means and resources, but did not achieve the results we had hoped for.
I do not think that we currently have forces and means similar to that set of forces as of May 2024. Therefore, most likely, the Ukrainian army will continue to exhaust the offensive potential of the Russian army in relation to the entire group of the Russian army. By the way, there are about 210 thousand personnel in the south of our country, including the south of the Kherson region, the south of the Zaporizhia region, as well as the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea. I heard these figures the other day from the representative of the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine, Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn.
That is, a huge amount of human resources, a huge component of weapons and equipment, but all this turns out to be incapable. All this force is incapable of radically changing the status quo that is developing in the south of the Zaporizhia region.
And the cries of some Russian propagandists, in particular, about the fact that they are losing control over settlements in the Stepnogirsk area and further south, clearly determine the trends.
I am quite cautious in making predictions about the prospects for the summer offensive campaign, but taking into account the processes that we saw in March, April and May, in particular, on the one hand, the intensification of hostilities, and on the other hand, the reduction of the territories that the enemy takes under control every day or every month, I can assume that by the end of June we will be able to build an absolutely clear understanding of where the same summer stage of the Russian offensive campaign will head. It seems to me that in the south of the Zaporizhia region they will have an absolute failure; we will observe in other areas of the front.
The trends are quite alarming, but not catastrophic. The enemy is forced to use and expend a huge amount of manpower, primarily in order to gain control over a few dozen square kilometers within a month.
– As you know, President Zelensky was forced to personally appeal to the President of the United States and Congress with a request to strengthen our air defense, in particular, in terms of countering enemy ballistic missiles. In your opinion, is this a sign that the situation is truly critical?
– I am not ready to give assessments in this situation, because I do not have access to this kind of sensitive information, which is definitely classified as “secret”. But the request from the Ukrainian leader, and a public one addressed to the American president, suggests that we have certain difficulties and complications, primarily in terms of missiles for Patriot air defense systems.
But these difficulties are partially compensated by the supply of European SAMP/T missiles, NASAMS, HAWK missile systems. That is, to say that we are completely bare-footed would probably be unfair. The fact that we need missiles for Patriot complexes is obvious, because Patriots are the most effective in confronting Russian ballistic missiles.
The enemy is increasingly using ballistics in order to guarantee maximum damage to us. In fact, every time he commits a terrorist act – when Russian ballistic missiles fly over schools, kindergartens, and other educational institutions, this is definitely not about military rationality. This is about the genocide of the Ukrainian people, about the terror of Ukrainian citizens carried out by the terrorist state – the Russian Federation.
Therefore, in order for us to be as effective as possible in our air defense system against Russian ballistics, we need missiles. President Zelenskyy constantly says this. But will they hear us across the ocean? I have quite serious skepticism, judging by the statements and actions of the American administration, which is quite seriously restricting the supply of weapons equipment, compared to the actions of the administration of previous President Biden.
– However, the situation is not hopeless, as I understood from what you said.
– Yes, of course, we have other options and possibilities. We receive missiles for air defense systems from other manufacturers and countries, and this is certainly a very important element.
I will say more. While fairly pointing out some shortcomings and irrational actions of the American government, I still pay tribute to the sale by the American government of weapons from the US army warehouses within the framework of the PURL program. Although, again, I will remind you that approximately $17 billion is currently in the accounts of the American administration. This money is earmarked, and by decision of the Congress and the US president of the previous term, it can be directly spent on providing military and technical support to the Ukrainian army.
The AFU is hitting the mafia army hard, but what we need are better air defense systems, like always.
Ukraine should urge all citizens to hide in basements and unleash the true power of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to push the invaderZ back as much as possible.