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The 2026 House Forecast

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Last Updated on Sep 15, 2:55 PM ET

Our House Forecast projects each party’s chance of winning the majority. It uses data-driven projections to forecast all 435 races and runs 10,000 simulations of the election after every update. The model takes into account the recent electoral history of each district, the latest polling, fundraising, and other key data.

In 2026, Democrats are seeking to reclaim the House majority, after coming tantalizingly close to victory in two straight election cycles. They need to flip just three seats to secure the majority. Since starting in 2022, our forecast has called the second-highest percentage of House Races right of any forecaster, short only of the former political news site FiveThirtyEight. To learn more about how our forecast works, click here.

When you’re done with the main forecast, you can explore the forecast across each region and see the latest House polls. You can also check our forecasts for the Senate and Governor races, and track the President’s approval rating, or explore the latest polling across the entire site.

A graphic showing the 2026 House Election Forecast, illustrating the chances of winning the House majority for Democrats at 83.9% and Republicans at 16.1%.
Chart displaying projected seats won in a House election, with 232.5 seats in blue and 202.5 seats in red. It includes definitions for race ratings and mentions the requirement of 218 seats for a House majority.
Electoral map showing states colored by party affiliation with Democrats leading in total seats versus Republicans. Various colors represent different categories of electoral competitiveness.
Text and map detailing tips for navigating election maps of Alaska and Hawaii, including zooming instructions and commentary on political district representation.
Line graph showing the projected chance of winning for Democrats and Republicans over time, with Democrats in blue reaching 83.9% and Republicans in red at 16.1%.
Chart showing house race snapshots for 12 key elections, detailing projected leads, chances to win, and polling leads for various candidates across different states.
Table displaying recent electoral races where Democrats have gained in the last 30 days, including new ratings, matchups, and rating changes across several districts.
Table displaying races where Republicans gained in the last 30 days, including matchup details and rating changes.

Check out the rest (interactive charts) on the original website. Link is below.

https://www.racetothewh.com/house

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