21 April 2026
Russian authorities are systematically embellishing economic statistics to create the impression in the West that the economy is successfully coping with sanctions and massive war spending, according to Thomas Nilsson, head of Swedish Military Intelligence, told the Financial Times.
According to him, the real inflation rate in Russia is close to 15%, the Central Bank of Russia’s key rate. This is almost three times higher than the official figure from Rosstat—5.87% as of the end of March.
According to official statistics, inflation in Russia is slowing: at its peak in March 2025, it reached 10.34% year-on-year and has since halved.
Citizens themselves, however, estimate price increases almost identically to Swedish intelligence—14.6%, according to the Central Bank’s April survey . Moreover, unlike Rosstat’s figures, the level of “observed inflation” has remained virtually unchanged over the past year: for example, in September 2025, Russians estimated price increases at 14.1% for the year, while in May, they estimated them at 15.5%.
The system Vladimir Putin has created is such that he himself may not be aware of how dire his economic situation is, says Nilsson. “But even with the false information he receives, there’s no escaping it all.” Nilsson
says he agrees with the findings of Germany’s intelligence agency (BND), which previously stated that Russia’s real budget deficit last year was 8 trillion rubles, not the 5.6 trillion reported by the Ministry of Finance. The BND also calculated that the Kremlin’s military spending “eats up” half of the budget, instead of the official 30%, when measured by NATO standards, which also include spending on construction projects, IT services, and military welfare.
Sweden believes Russia is hanging by a thread, Nilsson said. “Only two scenarios are possible for the Russian economy: a long-term decline or a shock. In either case, it will continue its downward spiral toward financial catastrophe.”
Despite the bleak economic outlook, Putin has not abandoned and does not plan to abandon his maximalist ambitions for Ukraine, and views US-brokered negotiations as “political theater,” according to the head of Swedish intelligence.
Although Putin claims he wants all of Donbas, in reality, he likely wants to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea by seizing Odessa, and may even have retained his claim to Kyiv, Nilsson believes.
“According to him, the real inflation rate in Russia is close to 15%, the Central Bank of Russia’s key rate. This is almost three times higher than the official figure from Rosstat—5.87% as of the end of March.”
No news for us because we always assume being lied to when a ruskie opens his foul trap.