COPENHAGEN, Denmark — Sweden’s external military intelligence service said Friday that the security policy situation in the Baltic Sea region “has deteriorated over time,” meaning there is “an increased risk of military incidents and confrontation that can, in the worst case, lead to a situation escalating.”
The Military Intelligence and Security Service, known by its Swedish acronym MUST, said “the dynamics between the United States, China, Russia and the European Union also affects the security policy situation in the Baltic Sea region.”
In its annual report for 2019, the agency said the region “continues to be characterized by increased military activity. This means a growing risk of military incidents and confrontation that may, at worst, escalate.”
MUST noted that “generally speaking Russia remains militarily inferior to the United States and NATO” but stressed that Russia “has the ability to be militarily superior regionally, and for a limited time.” The reason for that is that NATO and Europe are dependent on American strengthening in the event of a conflict and that this would have to be relocated from North America.
Last month, Estonia’s foreign intelligence agency said the likelihood of a military attack from neighboring Russia remains low. Still, he said, any confrontation with Russia and the West could quickly turn into “a threat situation” for the three Baltic countries — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
© 2020 Stars and Stripes
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“generally speaking Russia remains militarily inferior to the United States and NATO”
I doubt Putin knows this…
He would if he ever attacked a NATO country, and has the pleasure of seeing his Lada junk destroyed and sinking to the bottom of the Baltic Sea.
I have very little doubt he will attack the Baltics. But not yet, Ukraine and Belarus are his current priorities. I think he will attack the Baltics in a few years, especially if the economic situation in Russia further deteriorates. I think it depends on who will be POTUS: I do not think Trump will save the Baltics, and he will say: “it is Europe’s problem”. If other candidates would intervene, is just guessing, but also among democrats, the trend is isolationism, as was during the 30’s of
last century.
I think the attack won’t be very soon, as there is no signicant troop buildup in that region. But the Russian army is very mobile, so if there is a window of opportunity, like Maidan, he will send in the troops.
I think the West makes the false assumption Putin won’t attack a NATO country. He would, even if it would cost a million Russian soldiers. As long as he thinks he could win, he would do it. NATO has near nothing in the Baltics (8 fighter jets or so), at least nothing that will seriously deter Russia from striking the Baltics.
Slightly more than 8…a list of NATO deployments to the Baltics since 2014:
3 January 2014 United States United States Air Force 4 x F-15C Eagle
Šiauliai, Lithuania
1 May 2014 Poland Polish Air Force 4 x MiG-29A
Šiauliai, Lithuania
United Kingdom Royal Air Force 4 x Eurofighter Typhoon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
Denmark Royal Danish Air Force 4 x F-16AM Fighting Falcon
Ämari, Estonia.
France French Air Force 4 x Dassault Rafale
Malbork, Poland.
1 September 2014 Portugal Portuguese Air Force 6 x F-16AM Fighting Falcon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
Canada Royal Canadian Air Force 4 x CF-188 Hornet
Šiauliai, Lithuania
Germany German Air Force Eurofighter Typhoon
Ämari, Estonia
1 January 2015 Italy Italian Air Force 4 x Eurofighter Typhoon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
2 January 2015 Spain Spanish Air Force 4 x Eurofighter Typhoon
Ämari, Estonia
5 January 2015 Poland Polish Air Force 4 x MiG-29A
Šiauliai, Lithuania
1 May 2015 Norway Royal Norwegian Air Force 4 x F-16AM Fighting Falcon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
Italy Italian Air Force 4 x Eurofighter Typhoon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
United Kingdom Royal Air Force 4 x Eurofighter Typhoon
Ämari, Estonia
25 August 2015 Germany German Air Force 4 x Eurofighter Typhoon
Ämari, Estonia
31 August 2015 Hungary Hungarian Air Force 4 x JAS 39C Gripen
Šiauliai, Lithuania
7 January 2016 Spain Spanish Air Force 4 x Eurofighter Typhoon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
Belgium Belgian Air Component 4 x F-16AM Fighting Falcon
Ämari, Estonia
28 April 2016 United Kingdom Royal Air Force 4 x Eurofighter Typhoon
Ämari, Estonia
4 May 2016 Portugal Portuguese Air Force 4 x F-16AM Fighting Falcon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
31 August 2016 France French Air Force 4 x Mirage 2000-5F
Šiauliai, Lithuania
Germany German Air Force 4 x Eurofighter Typhoon
Ämari, Estonia
5 January 2017 Netherlands Royal Netherlands Air Force |4 x F-16AM Fighting Falcon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
Germany German Air Force 4 x Eurofighter Typhoon
Ämari, Estonia
2 May 2017 Poland Polish Air Force 4 x F-16C Fighting Falcon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
3 May 2017 Spain Spanish Air Force 5 x EF-18 Hornet
Ämari, Estonia
30 August 2017 United States United States Air Force 4 x F-15C Eagle
Šiauliai, Lithuania
5 September 2017 Belgium Belgian Air Component 4 x F-16AM Fighting Falcon
Ämari, Estonia
8 January 2018 Denmark Royal Danish Air Force 4 x F-16AM Fighting Falcon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
10 January 2018 Italy Italian Air Force 4 x Eurofighter Typhoon
Ämari, Estonia
2 May 2018 Portugal Portuguese Air Force 4 x F-16AM Fighting Falcon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
Spain Spanish Air Force 6 x Eurofighter Typhoon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
3 May 2018 France French Air Force 4 x Mirage 2000-5F
Ämari, Estonia
30 August 2018 Germany German Air Force 4 x Eurofighter Typhoon
Ämari, Estonia
31 August 2018 Belgium Belgian Air Component 4 x F-16AM Fighting Falcon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
3 January 2019 Poland Polish Air Force F-16C Fighting Falcon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
1 May 2019 Hungary Hungarian Air Force 4 x JAS 39C Gripen
Šiauliai, Lithuania
Spain Spanish Air Force 5 x EF-18 Hornet
Šiauliai, Lithuania
United Kingdom Royal Air Force 4 x Eurofighter Typhoon
Ämari, Estonia
3 September 2019 Belgium Belgian Air Component 4 x F-16AM Fighting Falcon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
Denmark Royal Danish Air Force 4 x F-16AM Fighting Falcon
Šiauliai, Lithuania
Czech Republic Czech Air Force 4 x JAS 39C Gripen
Ämari, Estonia
2 January 2020 Poland Polish Air Force F-16C Fighting Falcon
Ämari, Estonia