The analysis

Will America pass the Ukraine aid bill?

April 19, 2024

After stalling for more than five months, a bill which would release £49 billion in aid for Ukraine heads to a vote in the House of Representatives tomorrow. More than a third of this amount will be spent on replenishing weapons and ammunition systems for the US military after they send these to Ukraine. The bill also includes a measure that stipulates that any economic, rather than military, assistance to Kyiv should be repaid, which was a conservative demand. ‘History judges us for what we do. This is a critical time right now,’ said House Speaker Mike Johnson. He is right: Ukraine is paying for western inaction in blood.

Without US aid, Ukraine will lose the war. Volodymyr Zelenky has said it himself. Russian forces are advancing along the front line. Since the beginning of the year, they have seized more than 140 square miles of Ukrainian territory. The Russian army has now besieged the city of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region. Only around 800 inhabitants remain in the burned-out city – or what is left of it. Around 13,000 lived there before the war. If captured, it will allow Moscow to launch an offensive on Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – the last strongholds in the region under Ukraine’s control – from a prime position as Chasiv Yar is on a hill. If this happens, the initial goal of Vladimir Putin’s 2014 Donbas invasion will be complete: the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk will be totally under Russian control.

Nobody believes Putin is going to stop there. His army is trying to advance in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which are recognised in the Russian constitution as Russian territories, and also in the Kharkiv region. Russia is firing ten times as many shells at Ukraine as are coming back in response. The lack of air defences means Ukrainian troops are now exposed to Russian aircraft which, for the first time in this war, have started dropping thousands of bombs.

Despite the urgency, there is no guarantee that the US aid bill will be passed tomorrow. Some Republicans have proposed dozens of (frankly ridiculous) amendments. One amendment, submitted by Marjorie Taylor Greene, requires any member of the House of Representatives who votes for the bill to be obliged to join the Ukrainian army. ‘I mean, if you want to fund a war, why not fight in it,’ Greene wrote on social media. Another amendment from Greene requires Ukraine to ‘close all its biolabs’ and provide all data on such ‘research’ to the US government. Other amendments require a report proving that Christian churches in Ukraine can operate without government interference, or that no funds can be used until Zelensky resigns as President.

Victoria Spartz, a Ukrainian-American Republican, has proposed an amendment which would ban spending to help Ukrainian refugees in the US. Her home region in Ukraine was bombed yesterday, with Russian missiles killing at least 18 people and injuring 78, including children.

To Ukrainians, all these and other similar proposals look like a mockery of the fight and sacrifice they are forced to make to live in a free country. Johnson’s decision to push ahead with the vote puts his job at risk, with at least two Republicans threatening to put forward a motion to remove him. If he is fired, any hope of aid for Ukraine will be stuck in Congress for weeks, waiting for lawmakers to return from their holidays and for a new Speaker to emerge. Whatever happens tomorrow will determine not only the outcome of the war, but will show the US’s allegiances: will it side with the aggressor or those fighting back?

Wider reading on the war

Why does the West protect Israel but not Ukraine? – The Spectator

The talks that could have ended the war in Ukraine – Foreign Affairs

Exclusive: Russia-Ukraine Black Sea shipping deal was almost reached last month, sources say – Reuters

‘Double-tap’ attack. Understanding one of Russia’s cruellest tactics in Ukraine – Kyiv Independent

Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries deepen tensions with US – Washington Post

In pictures

Kyiv: A Ukrainian emergency services responder runs the half marathon in full protective gear. He dedicated his race to the Kharkiv state emergency workers killed by Russia’s double-tap shelling during the rescue operation. (Photo: Kyiv Half Marathon)

Quote of the week

‘Shaheds in the skies above Ukraine sound identical to those over the Middle East. The impact of ballistic missiles, if they are not intercepted, is the same everywhere… Terror must be defeated completely and everywhere, not more in some places and less in others.’

– Volodymyr Zelensky appeals for Ukraine to receive the same level of protection from Russian drones and missiles as Israel did following the weekend attack by Iran.

The war in numbers:

Foreign-made parts used in Russian Sukhoi fighter jets:

more than 2,000

primarily originating from Japan and the United States

Ukraine’s GDP will grow by:

3.2%

this year, according to the International Monetary Fund

The number of Ukrainians who are considered missing stands at:

37,000

including children, other civilians, and military personnel.

A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk

🏆 Young Journalist of the Year by The Press Awards UK

I don’t even know how to comment on this. Still in shock but incredibly grateful. Journalism is costing me a lot of tears, nerves and sleepless nights, but I love my job very much.