01/28/2026
The US continues to pressure Ukraine to hand over the part of Donetsk region not occupied by the aggressor to Russia in exchange for US security guarantees. However, if Kyiv agrees to this, it will make a strategic mistake.
If the current pace of advance continues, Russia is unlikely to be able to capture the entire Donetsk region by August 2027, but taking this territory without a fight would give the aggressor an advantageous position to resume its offensive in the southwest and center of Ukraine after a break and recovery. This assessment is insisted on by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Renunciation of Donetsk Oblast in Exchange for Vague Security Guarantees from the US
Washington continues to push Kyiv to abandon the controlled part of the Donetsk region in favor of the aggressor.
According to Financial Times sources, the United States is resorting to leverage: the administration of US President Donald Trump is signaling that providing American security guarantees to Ukraine will depend on its agreement to a “peaceful settlement” – which includes, in the view of American officials, the transfer to Russia of those parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that the aggressor has never been able to occupy.
Two sources told the FT that the United States has suggested it would provide more weapons to bolster Ukraine’s armed forces if Ukraine agrees to withdraw troops from all of Donbas. The sources also said the proposed US security guarantees include a commitment that “mirrors” NATO’s Article 5 clause and a promise to mount a coordinated military response in the event of a “sustained” Russian attack on Ukraine after a peace deal is reached.
At the same time, one of the sources suggested that the proposed guarantees may be “too vague” for Ukraine, but “too broad” for Russia , ISW noted.
Russia is not able to quickly seize all of Donbas, and abandoning it would be a strategic mistake for Ukraine.
ISW analysts insist that Ukraine’s concessions regarding territory that Russia is unlikely to quickly or easily seize militarily would be a strategic mistake.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, the aggressor will have to spend a significant amount of resources, time, and manpower to capture the unoccupied part of Donbas. And even if the Russian Federation were able to maintain the pace of advance it was moving at the end of November 2025, under the most optimistic scenario for the invaders, they would not be able to capture the entire Donetsk region before August 2027.
“Strategic mistake”: ISW explained what the withdrawal of troops from Donbas could threaten Ukraine with
At the same time, analysts note that the enemy’s advance slowed down in late December and early January. This is probably due to worsening weather conditions. However, ISW adds, this slowdown indicates that the Russian Federation’s efforts to capture the rest of the Donetsk region may last even longer than previously predicted.
“The withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territory of the Donetsk region, which is held by Ukraine, will put Russian forces in a more advantageous position to resume attacks on the southwest and center of Ukraine in the future after rest and recovery,” the ISW stated.
A strong Ukrainian army and reliable security guarantees from Ukraine’s Western allies could deter a future Russian invasion, analysts say. However, the Kremlin has repeatedly rejected the possibility of such guarantees from the West.
Only on January 26, the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, stated that the conditions for a peaceful settlement put forward by the European states that are part of the Coalition of the Willing are “absolutely unacceptable” for Moscow. Analysts probably assumed that he was referring primarily to the Europeans’ discussion of a plan to deploy troops on the territory of Ukraine after the war.
The very next day, January 27, a similar thesis was expressed by the Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee of the Russian State Duma, Alexei Zhuravlev , who directly rejected the deployment of troops from NATO countries in post-war Ukraine.
“The Kremlin is unlikely to agree to any settlement that includes substantial security guarantees for Ukraine. The Kremlin’s continued refusal to provide security guarantees for Ukraine and its continued disregard for the negotiation process indicate that it remains committed to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory – the theory that Russia can win in Ukraine by outlasting Ukraine’s ability to fight and the West’s willingness to support Ukraine,” ISW believes.
OBOZ.UA previously wrote that the occupiers are increasingly using Starlink to increase the range of strike drones. ISW noted that the range of BM-35 drones equipped with the Starlink system is 500 kilometers, which means that most of Ukraine, all of Moldova, as well as parts of Poland, Romania, and Lithuania are within the reach of these drones
if they are launched from Russia or the occupied part of Ukraine.
I doubt that Ukraine is so stupid as to surrender its defensive belt for a promise by a convicted felon, a pedophile, a traitor, a draft dodger, a gangster, an adulterer, a pathological liar, and a malignant narcissist. The Budapest Memorandum was bad enough under far better and emotionally more stable presidents with morals.
The putinaZis are trying to murder as many Ukrainians as they can and thieve as much land as they can.
I don’t think putler will agree to anything that is acceptable to Ukraine.
I may be overthinking this, but it’s possible I suppose that the putinaZis might be preparing to drop their claim for the unoccupied Donbas in return for ……. Something that is very nasty for Ukraine.
If a “peace deal” is signed, Ukraine will not get its land back except by force. And then if it attempts to do just that, Krasnov will leap in : on the side of his friends the putinaZis.
We can forget alltogether anything good or even just acceptab le coming from that orange manbaby. We’ll have to wait until a real president is in office, one with a spine.