06/19/2026

While fighting their war against Ukraine, Russia is facing big trouble around the Caucasus. In the south, Armenia recently voted for a pro-European leader, despite immense pressure from Putin. And to the north, Chechnya’s longtime leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, is rumored to be extremely ill, preparing his fiefdom for a succession crisis. This puts pressure on Putin’s nearby empire at the exact moment Russia’s military is too weak to do anything about it. It could create some large shifts, all the result of Russia’s failures in Ukraine. I explain all the details here.

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