6 May 2026
Russia’s oil and gas budget revenues turned out to be much lower than expected given rising oil prices. In April, they amounted to 855.6 billion rubles, according to the Ministry of Finance. This is only 21 billion rubles higher than the baseline it calculated based on the budgeted price of $59 per barrel.
This was the exact price in March 2025, which was used to calculate taxes for April of last year. Back then, oil and gas revenues were 230 billion rubles, or 26.9%, higher than they are now, even though the tax price of Russian oil in April was $77 per barrel. And by the end of the first four months, the budget received 2.3 trillion rubles from oil and gas, which is 38.3% less than a year earlier. The budget has so far collected only a quarter of the annual plan of 8.92 trillion rubles.
Oil and gas revenues increased by 40% compared to March. However, the 21 billion rubles of additional revenue announced in April turned out to be “significantly lower than forecasts” (200-250 billion rubles), notes economist Dmitry Polevoy. Former Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Aleksashenko expected a “war bonus” in oil and gas revenues in April of 220 billion rubles.
The weak result is primarily due to increased compensation to oil companies for maintaining low fuel prices (the damper mechanism). The budget pays oil companies a portion of the difference between domestic and foreign prices. In April, the amount was 207.5 billion rubles, compared to 15 billion in March, according to Ministry of Finance data. Economist Yegor Susin attributes the April result to the large compensation under the damper mechanism. As of May 1, the authorities agreed with oil companies to “manual” price regulation, Polevoy recalls.
The near-total absence of oil and gas windfall profits in April has meant that the Ministry of Finance is resuming foreign currency purchases to fill the National Welfare Fund (NWF) will be several times smaller than expected. Analysts polled by Reuters estimated them at 340-455 billion rubles over the coming month, but the Ministry of Finance reported they will amount to 110.3 billion, or 5.8 billion rubles per day. Taking into account the Central Bank’s daily sales of 4.6 billion rubles per day, the total daily purchases will amount to 1.2 billion. VTB analysts estimated these purchases at at least 10 billion rubles, while Sofia Donetsk, chief economist at T-Investments, estimated them at 14-19 billion. The purchases will be “significantly lower than expected,” Susin concludes. According to him, with such transaction volumes, “the exchange rate should likely be closer to 75 rubles per dollar.” “The smaller the purchase, the stronger the ruble,” Polevoy concludes.
A stronger ruble is reducing budget revenues from oil, which are denominated in dollars. For the first quarter (the Finance Ministry hasn’t yet released the April results), the budget deficit amounted to 4.6 trillion rubles, exceeding the full-year plan (3.8 trillion) due to increased spending and shortfalls in oil and gas revenues.
In May, oil taxes will be paid based on $94.9 per barrel—the average price of Russian oil in April, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. Aleksashenko expects a “war premium” in May at the current ruble exchange rate (75.5 rubles to the dollar) of 400 billion rubles, while Gazprombank’s Center for Economic Forecasting (CEF) estimated additional oil and gas revenues in May at 400-500 billion rubles (with Urals prices around $100 per barrel).
No mention of the major reason why the mafia oil budget is so low; Ukrainian type sanctions.
Just said the same myself. These media sites hate to give any credit to Ukraine.
It’s so obvious, I wonder why they keep on doing this.
What a load of BS. The reason they couldn’t take advantage of TACO lifting sanctions is because Ukraine applied sanctions on russian oil.
Mafia land laughs at our sanctions, but fears Ukrainian ones. That should tell you a lot.