03/18/2025

In an ideal world, the United States remains a large-scale “pillar of security” in Europe, making it clear to Russian dictator Putin that drastic steps are not worth taking. But we have US President Donald Trump and his vision of an “ideal” world in which Europe and Ukraine “rob” the United States, therefore have no right to help, and Russia is a reliable partner and friend who can be trusted.

Trump will withdraw the United States from the Alliance, and Europeans will be responsible for their own security. Given the increasingly loud statements coming from Washington during Donald Trump’s second term, this statement no longer seems fantastic. The US withdrawal from NATO would be a strategic mistake of colossal proportions, but influential politicians in the Republican Party and the new administration are actually discussing this step. Thus, Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin recently stated: “NATO does not always act in our interests. And if the Alliance no longer serves America’s interests, we should reconsider its necessity.”

Skeptical views about the Alliance were also voiced by Vice President J.D. Vance, who openly ridiculed NATO at the Munich Security Conference. But the most notable statement was made by US Defense Secretary Hegseth, who bluntly stated that “realities” would not allow the US to be the guarantor of Europe’s security. In other words, no American support. It seems that Trump thinks the same. At least his words about the intention to end the leading role of the US in financing and assisting NATO hardly indicate anything else.

About how Donald Trump is trying to “change” NATO by destroying it, and what the chance is for Ukraine, – in the material of OBOZ.UA.

Significant changes

The ideal world of transatlantic unity has officially cracked. The US president is flirting with Russia, planning to lift sanctions, undermining trust in NATO, threatening the EU with tariffs, and ready to make a host of concessions to the Kremlin in Ukraine.

Many European leaders agree that America under Trump is now a threat, although few are willing to say so out loud for diplomatic reasons. But ordinary Europeans have already reacted. For example, 78% of Britons consider Trump a threat to the UK. A similar view is held by 74% of Germans and 69% of French.

Today, Donald Trump is considering a major overhaul of US participation in NATO. Financial contributions from NATO members – Trump has repeatedly criticized European countries for not meeting their commitment to spend 2% of their GDP on defense. He is demanding that allies increase their defense spending, emphasizing that the US should not be financing the security of other countries.

“If NATO countries don’t pay, the United States won’t defend them,” Trump said.

Interpretation of Article 5 – Trump has questioned the binding nature of Article 5 (collective defense), saying that the US will not always defend countries that fail to meet their financial obligations. However, it is now difficult to understand what obligations must be met so that Americans will still protect you. During the World Economic Forum in Davos in January of this year, the American leader stated that most states do not even meet the previously established 2% of GDP, and called for this norm to be increased to 5%.

However, achieving a defense spending target of 5% of GDP is a difficult task for many NATO countries, given their economic capabilities and budgetary constraints. For example, even in the United States, the defense budget currently amounts to only 3.3-3.5% of GDP. Against this background, the administration has already made it clear to European allies that the United States may reduce its own military presence in Europe, and is currently considering the option of redeploying American troops to regions where NATO countries meet their financial obligations.

Make the Alliance inoperable

Former US Ambassador to the UN and Trump’s national security adviser during his first presidency, John Bolton, believes that Trump may not officially withdraw the US from NATO in the near future, but he will do a lot to make the Alliance incapable of much. Bolton notes that the US president’s policy towards Russia and Ukraine, which has turned the US attitude towards the Russian-Ukrainian war 180 degrees, could prove fatal not only for Ukraine, but also for Europe with NATO.

“Trump has been seeking to weaken or destroy the Alliance for many years. He doesn’t like it, he doesn’t understand it, he doesn’t like the headquarters building in Brussels, and, worst of all, the Alliance has been deeply involved not only in Ukraine but also in Afghanistan, which he also doesn’t like. Trump may eventually want to withdraw from NATO, but in the near term he could do enough serious damage to simply render the Alliance inoperable,” notes Trump’s former national security adviser.

Against this background, we have European media outlets reporting that the US has informed its NATO allies of its intention to stop participating in the planning of future military exercises in Europe. This does not yet apply to the NATO exercises already planned (under US President Joe Biden) for 2025, in which the States are to play a key role. These are NATO exercises that are currently on the “drawing board”, that is, at a later stage of implementation.

Europe got it right

In the current situation, European politicians are beginning to realize how profoundly their world has changed: they now have to deal with an America that is at best skeptical and at worst hostile to Europe. In the first few weeks after his return, Trump and his team announced the introduction of tariffs, repeatedly criticized the EU as an institution, refused aid to Ukraine, demanded the postponement of America’s historic commitments to ensuring European security, and welcomed Putin’s return to the international party. Against this background, it is understandable that doubts about the US commitment to its alliance commitments are only growing in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who has been promoting the idea of ​​”European strategic autonomy” for years, has now taken this direction even further, announcing the start of consideration of the issue of a common nuclear “umbrella” for all of Europe under the auspices of France.

At an emergency meeting in Brussels, EU leaders approved a proposal from the European Commission that would allocate up to 150 billion euros to member states for defense spending, as well as plans to allow countries to use their national budgets for a potential 650 billion euros in defense spending over four years.

Future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz bluntly stated: “We must prepare for the fact that Donald Trump will no longer unconditionally support the principle of NATO’s collective defense, and we must do everything to protect ourselves with our own forces.”

Trump’s threat to NATO is understood even in Turkey, where the US president’s actions were called “a wake-up call for us to unite and create our own security center.” Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan, in an interview with the Financial Times, said that Turkey would like to become part of any new European security architecture if NATO disintegrates: “The genie has been let out of the bottle, and there is no way to put him back in. Even if President Trump decides not to leave Europe now, it is quite possible that in the future someone with similar views and political ideas may consider reducing America’s contribution to European security.”

Remember the WEU

If the US leaves, Europe will be forced to create a new military bloc, says former US European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe James Stavridis. For example, create a European Treaty Organization – a new alliance based on the NATO structure, with the participation of Canada, which has already shown interest, but without the US. The European Union would take on the role of a military alliance, using existing EU structures and expanding its own military operations.

In this regard, Europeans can recall how the Western European Union functioned, which, having united European countries, EU members in the military and security sphere, ceased to exist in 2011. The Union was founded in accordance with the Brussels Treaty of 1948 on cooperation in economic, social and cultural spheres and collective self-defense between Belgium, Great Britain, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and France. Over time, Germany and Italy joined them on a permanent basis, and all members of the European Union were involved in cooperation with the WEU.

“The Western European Union was the prototype of the European NATO. Absolutely all the standards were spelled out there, starting from the Council of Heads of State, the Parliamentary Assembly, operational headquarters, and so on. Everything is there. You just have to take it off the shelf, shake off the dust, see what can be added, what can be taken away – and the structure is ready. But in this structure, Ukraine will no longer be a beggar. It will be the founding country of such a structure, and we will already decide whether to let a conditional Orban or a conditional Fico in there. That’s what it’s about,” said former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko in an exclusive comment to OBOZ.UA.

Europeans understand what not to expect

“I don’t think it’s worth waiting for Trump to withdraw the US from Europe. Of course, it would be better if the US remained a reliable partner and ally, but so far everything indicates the opposite development of events. We need to act, and it seems to me that Europe has finally understood that avoiding undesirable consequences within NATO will be very difficult or even impossible. Therefore, we shouldn’t sit and wait for this to happen, but should do something,” said Ukrainian diplomat, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine Ihor Dolgov , who headed the Ukrainian mission to NATO and was Deputy Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense for European Integration, in an exclusive comment to OBOZ.UA.

The diplomat believes that today the Europeans have finally understood that the issue is at a crossroads. If we continue to follow the logic of the US president and satisfy all the completely baseless and unjustified claims from Moscow, we can be left with nothing. Igor Dolgov believes that the real power in Europe now is Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is the opportunity and the resource thanks to which Europe can significantly strengthen its own security capabilities and also use the potential of Ukraine, accordingly supporting our state at such a level that Moscow will be forced to forget about the new aggression.

“I believe that regardless of how the president of the United States acts and how he sees the future of NATO, Europe must take care of itself. Plan and act as if the US is no longer interested in being present in Europe. This does not mean that NATO will collapse tomorrow or something will happen to it. This simply means that Europe must consciously act differently, without relying on NATO,” Igor Dolgov believes.

According to the diplomat, Macron was the first in Europe to promote ideas of greater autonomy, which were not immediately accepted. But behind this is primarily the Weimar Triangle – the axis of Paris, Berlin, Warsaw, which largely determines the policy of the European Union. Today, the Prime Minister of Great Britain, Keir Starmer, has joined this trio. Because Britain, being outside the European Union, always plays its own special role.

“If all this continues to develop in this way, namely – the States will reduce their role in NATO, reduce the physical presence of their troops in Europe, then a counterbalance will develop, a purely European one. And Ukraine will be at the center of this counterbalance. In fact, the creation of a new military bloc is possible – and for Ukraine this is a chance to get a really large-scale place in the European security structure. What is happening now around security guarantees for Ukraine and around guarantees for Europe itself – for me this is the creation of a new security system. And without Ukraine, such a system is not possible. Especially considering the power and experience of the Armed Forces of Ukraine after three years of fighting the aggressor. Certain processes have already begun. These are European investments in the Ukrainian defense industry, and the integration of the Ukrainian defense industry into the European military-industrial complex,” noted Igor Dolgov.

https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-news/znachni-problemi-dlya-evropi-velikij-shans-dlya-ukraini-yak-donald-tramp-rujnue-zahidnu-solidarnist-ta-nato.htm