The issuance of a formal notice of suspicion to Andriy Yermak, the former head of the President’s Office, in the case involving the construction of luxury cottages near Kyiv was not merely another episode in the chronicle of the fight against corruption. It marks yet another significant political shift that has triggered a veritable chain reaction of speculation and conjecture. The main one is linked not so much to Yermak himself and other former top officials as to a mysterious figure codenamed R1. 

The materials released by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau mention four key clients of the construction project—R1, R2, R3, and R4. If R2 is, according to the investigation, Yermak himself, R3 is businessman Timur Mindich, and R4 is former Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov, then who is hiding behind the code R1 remains officially unconfirmed. However, sources close to the investigation and the logic of the process itself compel us to consider a scenario in which this person could be the current President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Former presidential press secretary Yulia Mendel spoke about this as well: that on the “Mindich tapes” there is someone referred to as “the boss” and “Vova.” 

Since there is no official data yet, no one is claiming that all of this is actually true. Moreover, the NABU and the SAPO have already officially stated that the president “has not been and is not currently involved” in this investigation as of now. However, this wording is legally ambiguous and intriguing: the fact that he is not involved in one investigation as of now does not mean he will not be involved in the future or in some other investigation. After all, the head of state enjoys criminal immunity by law as long as he holds office, so anti-corruption officials simply could not say anything else.

So, if we assume this possibility, a completely new political reality unfolds before us, with potentially extremely serious consequences for the head of state: ranging from purely political to international-diplomatic and even, eventually, legal.

What might these consequences be? UA.News, together with experts, analyzed the situation. 

Political consequences: a second term becomes a distant dream

If it becomes known at the official level in the near future that the anti-corruption investigation identified the President of Ukraine under the code R1, his political prospects will suffer a devastating blow. The possibility of being re-elected for a second term in such a situation turns into a political mirage. Electoral logic is relentless here: even if there are no direct legal consequences during his current, still first “long” term, the very fact of being implicated in a corruption scandal of this magnitude instantly erodes the trust of a significant portion of voters—a similar situation occurred in 2019 with Petro Poroshenko and the scandal surrounding “Svinarchuk-gate.” That very credit of moral leadership, which was Zelenskyy’s key asset, will be irretrievably lost.

It is also important to understand that the president’s numerous political opponents, who have so far acted with relative caution, will be handed the perfect weapon. If the allegations that the president may be involved in a money-laundering scheme involving luxury real estate are later substantiated by documentary evidence, this will become the central theme of all possible “smear” campaigns in the media and politics. 

The argument about “foreign interference” or a “political order” will work here only partially, since the issue at hand is not politics but a lifestyle, paid for—according to the investigation—with funds stolen during a bloody war. This is the kind of toxicity that no anti-crisis campaign can counter.

Moreover, even if the president himself tries to distance himself from the case, emphasizing the presumption of innocence, the very fact that “bombs are exploding” as close to him as possible is shifting the balance of power within the elite. Some allies who looked to Bankova as a guarantor of stability may begin searching for alternative centers of power. The president’s political isolation, should his name become associated with a corruption case, could come rapidly, turning the head of state into a figure akin to a “figurehead,” who merely quietly serves out his term without any real influence on the processes.

The International Dimension: From Tacit Knowledge to Public Toxicity

The way in which the hypothetically confirmed role of the unknown R1 will affect relations with international partners deserves special attention. There is an extremely important nuance here: all key players—from Washington to Brussels—are, of course, well aware of, to put it diplomatically, the specifics of how the Ukrainian government and state function. A certain level of tolerance for corrupt “peculiarities” has accompanied cooperation with Ukraine from the very beginning. 

But this tolerance had one critical condition: it was not public. International partners could turn a blind eye to rumors, speculation, and even data from their own intelligence as long as they remained in the realm of backroom conversations. The situation changes dramatically when the investigation’s version, backed by evidence, makes its way into official law enforcement statements. 

If it suddenly turns out that the “boss” who, in March 2022, demanded that the construction of the cottages be accelerated while Putin’s troops were still stationed near Kyiv and killing people in Bucha, was the sitting president, this will become a toxic liability for any leader who extends a hand to him. For European politicians, who are forced to constantly justify their multi-billion-dollar support for Ukraine to their own voters, such a scandal would be a real disaster.

The most painful blow may not even be the cessation of aid, but a total change in its format. While Kyiv has so far been able to count on relatively flexible conditions for the use of funds, if R1’s role is confirmed, international partners may insist on strict external oversight of every euro spent. This would deprive the presidential administration of its leverage over financial flows. Public recognition of the president as a figure in a corruption scheme—if this indeed happens—is an issue that Western democracies will not be able to ignore without serious damage to their own reputations.

A legal trap set for the future 

Legally, the situation also appears somewhat paradoxical. As long as Volodymyr Zelenskyy holds the office of president, he is protected by constitutional immunity from any criminal prosecution. In other words, the head of state is untouchable: no preventive measures, no suspicions, no summons for questioning as a suspect—this is an axiom. 

But this very axiom turns the presidential seat into a delayed-action trap. Immunity is a temporary shield that vanishes the very moment the term of office expires. NABU and SAPO state that the president “has not been and is not currently involved” in the investigation as of now, yet the investigation continues. And it is unknown what will happen next. 

If we imagine that Person R1 will indeed be identified by the investigation as the president, then every subsequent day spent in office will become for him not only a political but also a deeply personal challenge. After all, as soon as his term ends, theoretically nothing will prevent law enforcement agencies from announcing the very same charges that Yermak received yesterday. The mechanism currently being deployed against his closest ally is, in essence, a rehearsal for what may await the president himself after his term ends. And here, what matters is not even the fact of potential prosecution itself, but how this prospect narrows the room for maneuver today and compels him to cling to power at all costs in the future.

The president, too, if the sword of Damocles in the form of future suspicion suddenly hangs over him, will become significantly more susceptible to all forms of influence: whether it concerns personnel decisions, the approval of legislative initiatives, or other matters. This is precisely what is at stake in the discussions surrounding the “Dynasty” case. 

It may be in someone’s interest for the head of state, aware of his potential legal vulnerability after his term ends, to become more accommodating on a number of important issues—whether for foreign partners or domestic players. These could also be issues related to the conditions for ending the war as soon as possible (in the case of Trump and the U.S.), or the “proper” reform of the judicial and law enforcement systems, which the EU is insistently demanding. It all depends on who is actually behind the new “tapes” from NABU and SAPO—and that is not known for certain.

Expert Opinions

Political scientist and director of the Institute of World Policy Yevhen Magda says: it is becoming increasingly clear that “Vova” or R1 is Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Although, in reality, according to legal procedure, there must still be corresponding evidence for this, the expert cautions. 

“To those expecting swift consequences for the president, I must warn that there will be none for the simple reason that he retains immunity from criminal prosecution until the end of his presidential term. But a person who loudly promised that ‘spring will come, we will plant trees,’ who said that we are all presidents and so on, needs to think carefully about his next steps. And it would be logical to at least meet with the leaders of the parliamentary factions to discuss the challenges that currently exist. And to understand that the “presidential-office republic” has run its course with Andriy Yermak’s resignation. We need to return to a parliamentary-presidential republic—in order to preserve our chances… not even for re-election, but at least for a more or less adequate portrayal of ourselves in history textbooks,” noted Yevhen Magda. 

Political analyst and head of the “Third Sector” Center, Andriy Zolotaryov, believes that in light of Yulia Mendel’s interview, the allegations against Yermak no longer appear to be a sensation—if anything, they are a sort of “second-order sensation.” Additionally, according to the expert, this is yet another warning to the president that he could be next. 

“The first stage of ‘Mindich-gate’ was aimed at bringing down Yermak. Now we are seeing attacks on Umerov as well as attempts to ‘finish off’ Yermak. Of course, this is a very transparent hint that the president himself could be the next target. And considering Mendel’s interview—you understand, people don’t just happen to end up on Tucker Carlson’s show, which has an audience of nearly 90 million viewers. They’re always brought there. Who did this? Maybe it’s revenge by former OP head Andriy Bohdan—who knows? But it turns out to be such a strange coincidence: when both NABU is active and an interview with Tucker Carlson appears, which leaves no stone unturned regarding the president’s name, familiar to us all.

I believe this is a final warning before the already quite intense pressure on the president. In what direction? Perhaps to get him to make concessions regarding the conclusion of a peace agreement, or something else. But looming behind all this is, at the very least, a realignment of the majority in the Verkhovna Rada and, most likely, the formation of a new government in due course. In other words, we’re talking about a power struggle. As for the allegations against Yermak—it’s clear that in the Ukrainian context, if a person loses their formal status, after a certain time they also lose their real influence. That is exactly what is happening to Yermak right now. “I think that for the next few years, Yermak will become a client of NABU, and under such conditions, there won’t be many people willing to deal with him,” Andriy Zolotaryov is convinced.

In summary, the “Dynasty” case and the issuance of a formal notice of suspicion to Andriy Yermak have become the tipping point beyond which abstract talk of “fighting corruption in the highest echelons of power” has turned into a very concrete political earthquake, analogous to “Mindich-gate.” The mysterious figure R1 is not just a code in the investigation materials, but a factor capable of radically reshaping the entire configuration of power in Ukraine. Is the president this figure? As of now, anti-corruption activists say no, and therefore nothing can be asserted.

But even setting aside all speculation, one fact is absolutely clear: anti-corruption activists have come as close as possible to the highest offices on Bankova Street. “The shells are landing” not just nearby, but striking the inner circle. This creates a fundamentally new reality for the incumbent president.

Zelenskyy’s ability to minimize these risks will depend on many factors: whether he can “put out the fire” with other news stories, how severe the preventive measure against Yermak will be, and most importantly—on whether the president is ready to make the decisions that the very forces that set this whole thing in motion are most likely expecting from him.

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