May 10, 2026
Russian forces have failed to secure any significant operational breakthroughs across the front over the past year, while Ukrainian forces achieved their most notable battlefield gains since the Kursk operation in August 2024.
According to a new assessment published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on May 10, Russia’s spring-summer offensive campaign has yielded only limited territorial gains against Ukraine’s fortified defensive lines, particularly near Kostyantynivka, where Russian forces first reached the outskirts of the city in October 2025.
According to ISW, “Russian forces have failed to achieve any significant operational progress over the past year,” despite continued offensive operations across multiple sectors of the front.
The report also noted that fighting continued during Russia’s self-declared ceasefire from May 9 to 11, although the overall tempo of operations decreased in some areas.
“Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that the overall tempo of operations in some sectors of the frontline decreased despite continued tactical combat operations that violated the ceasefire,” ISW wrote.
The analysts added that the ceasefire lacked clearly defined enforcement mechanisms and monitoring procedures. ISW noted that the only publicly known condition referenced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was that Ukraine would refrain from striking Moscow during Russia’s Victory Day parade on May 9—a condition the report said Ukraine observed.
“The prevalence of mutual accusations and continued localized activity from the first hours after the ceasefire announcement underscore the fact that a ceasefire without clearly defined enforcement mechanisms, robust monitoring, and dispute resolution processes is unlikely to hold,” the report stated.
ISW assessed that Russian forces likely used the temporary pause to rotate personnel, reposition reserves, and move logistics assets in preparation for future offensive operations.
At the same time, the think tank argued that Ukrainian defensive operations and counterattacks have complicated Russian military planning and prevented Moscow from achieving symbolic battlefield victories ahead of Victory Day celebrations.
According to ISW, Ukrainian forces regained more territory during winter and spring 2026 than Russian troops captured in April alone. The report highlighted Ukraine’s recapture of large parts of Kupiansk in late 2025, as well as more than 400 square kilometers in southern Ukraine through a series of counteroffensives conducted over recent months.
The analysts also pointed to additional Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhzhia region in late April.
ISW said Ukrainian operations in southern Ukraine created “operational and strategic consequences” for Russian forces by forcing Moscow to redistribute manpower between defensive needs and priority offensive sectors.
The report further linked Ukraine’s intensified long-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military infrastructure, and oil facilities to a decline in Russia’s ability to sustain large-scale offensive operations.
According to ISW, Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory disrupted frontline communications systems and drone operations while also reducing Russian oil and gas revenues.
The assessment also referenced restrictions placed on Russia’s use of Starlink terminals in occupied territories earlier this year, which analysts said created additional logistical and communications difficulties for Russian forces.
Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia would need to sacrifice between 300,000 and 1 million troops to fully occupy Donbas, calling the cost “enormous” even for Moscow, and stressing that Ukraine will not withdraw from the region.
As for the ground operations on the frontline, I’m pretty confident that Ukraine can keep holding back the cockroach horde and maybe even gain some more territory back, hopefully, until the shithole’s economy implodes. It’s the enemy’s air campaign that worries me. I hope that the AFU can destroy some more factories and even aircraft on the ground and in the air, while concurrently demolishing the rest of the mafia oil industry.
I pray your forecasts come true