Russia’s winter campaign begins

Svitlana Moronets

Oct 10, 2025

The analysis

Russia’s winter campaign begins

For the fourth winter in a row, Vladimir Putin believes now is the time when Ukrainians will finally break. Russia’s campaign of systematic strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure has begun once again with the first cold winds. Last night, Putin unleashed nearly 500 Shahed drones, decoys and missiles against Ukraine, launched simultaneously at different regions from multiple directions, with energy and gas production sites as prime targets. Only 13 missiles and 60 drones made it through. A child was killed and at least 24 people injured across the country. Eight regions, including Kyiv, were left partially without electricity and water.

Ukrainians knew that another winter of blackouts was coming. It was clear that, unable to defeat the Ukrainian army on the battlefield, Putin would keep bombing civilians. It’s hard to find the words to describe how exhausting these attacks are for Ukrainians, who haven’t had a peaceful night’s sleep since February 2022. I see it in my mother, who is woken almost every night by the buzz of Shahed drones passing over our house. My family has grown used to spending freezing days without electricity, lighting their rooms with candles and Christmas lights powered by a power bank. They heat the house with a wood stove and, in past winters, used a gas cooker to prepare meals. This year, even that may no longer be possible, given that recent Russian strikes have destroyed 60 per cent of Ukraine’s natural gas production capacity.

I see the same exhaustion in my friends who live in apartment blocks in Kyiv. Only a handful still find the strength to go down to bomb shelters each night. One friend sleeps on a camping mat in the Metro, alongside thousands of others – parents, children, cats and dogs – who now spend their nights underground. The rest hide in their corridors or bathrooms, hoping that one extra wall will protect them from a Russian missile or drone. Those working from home rely on portable power stations and generators (if they can afford them). Men who have been isolated in their homes for years out of fear of being conscripted drown in depression, while those who have not left the trenches dream only of home.

The Russian air attacks devastated not only civilians but soldiers, who went to the front line to keep their families safe. The tragedies when servicemen are granted leave only to attend the funeral of their loved ones killed in Russian bombardments are becoming more frequent. The latest came this week, when a soldier was called to bury his wife and 15-year-old daughter, killed by a Russian drone in the village of Lapivka in the Lviv region. In Zaporizhzhia, a man who had only recently returned from three years in Russian captivity was severely injured in last night’s attack and his seven-year-old son was killed.

Despite all the pain and sorrow, there are no signs that Ukrainians are willing to surrender. Every poll shows the same result: the vast majority refuse to accept Russia’s terms for a ceasefire. As in previous years, the coming winter is expected to be the hardest yet, but Putin has no reason to believe that after another season of bombings Ukrainians will start begging him for peace at any cost. What he should expect is Kyiv continuing to strike back: Putin may not care about Russians spending cold and sleepless nights without power in Belgorod or Kursk, but the stronger Ukraine’s retaliation is, the costlier the war will be for Russia, and the sooner it will end.

Quote of the week

‘I do not recognise any idea of holding elections during the war. Anyone who receives an offer supposedly made in my name to take part in any process through any organisation must report it to law enforcement authorities. I am not creating any headquarters or parties and, as a matter of principle, have no ties whatsoever to any political force’

– Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s former army chief and current ambassador to the UK, responds to reports about him preparing to run for president.

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

Russia launched nearly 500 drones and missiles against Ukraine overnight. More below.
The World Bank cut Ukraine’s 2026 growth forecast by more than 3 points, expecting GDP to rise by just 2%.
Russian strikes destroyed 60% of Ukraine’s natural gas production capacity ahead of winter.
The Ukrainian parliament approved the creation of the Cyber Forces within Ukraine’s military in the first reading.
Kyiv and Copenhagen signed a deal allowing Ukrainian defence companies to set up joint drone production in Denmark.
A Ukrainian drone attack damaged energy facilities in Russia’s Belgorod, with 40,000 residents affected by power cuts.
Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery halted its main crude processing unit after a Ukrainian drone strike in the Leningrad region.
Ukraine’s Shkval assault unit liberated Sichneve village in Dnipropetrovsk region and took eight Russian soldiers prisoner.
Belgium demanded that EU countries share the risks related to using Russian assets to fund a €140 billion reparations loan to Ukraine.
The Russian stock market fell by 4.05%, reaching its lowest level since December, after the Kremlin said that momentum for the peace deal in Ukraine had been exhausted.
Almost 70% of Americans support US military aid to Ukraine and increased sanctions pressure on Russia, a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll found.
Zelensky said Ukraine will nominate Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize if he secures a ceasefire with Russia.