Brian I.
Security & Defence; World Affairs; Strategic Products Brokerage, Human Rights.
EU-Taiwan Institute (歐台學院)
Brussels, Brussels Region, Belgium
Image Source: Foreign Policy
The Russian bear isn’t hibernating – it’s dying, choking on its own imperial ambitions while Putin and his cronies perform CPR with stolen roubles and the blood of conscripted young men. I’ve been in geopolitical analysis for decades, studied numerous tyrannies, and they all collapse the same way: first slowly, then suddenly. The countdown to Russia’s implosion has already begun, with 2025 already marking the year when the cracks become chasms.
This article comes about as a follow-on from last week’s article on the demise of Putin’s Russia, and my proposed probabilities of various scenarios. All end with the collapse, but all very differently. And very different degrees of likelihood.
The signs are all there already for the start of the death spiral; it is why Putin so desperately wants Trump to secure “his” territory and stop the war. He cannot afford to go on. He is truly cannibalising the civilian economy. Défense spending will hit a staggering 7.2% of GDP in 2025 – money that should feed children and repair crumbling apartments now buys tanks that Ukrainian farmers will collect for scrap and parts next summer. The Central Bank has jacked interest rates to 21% trying to tame inflation that’s officially 9% but closer to 22% if you count what ordinary Russians actually buy: potatoes up 81%, cabbage 37%, butter 36.5%. You can’t eat propaganda.
The equipment numbers tell the brutal truth. Half of Russia’s Soviet-era military stock is gone, with only about 2,000 tanks and 2,000 BMPs still combat-ready. Production can’t keep pace-463 BMP-3s in 2023 when thousands are needed. Each Russian advance costs more machines than factories can build, creating a mathematical certainty of defeat.
Meanwhile, capital haemorrhages from Russia like blood from a severed artery – $253 billion fled in 2022 alone, equivalent to 13% of GDP. The wealthy know what’s coming. They’re buying property in Dubai and London, relocating families to Serbia, Armenia, anywhere beyond the reach of sanctions and mobilisation orders.
Watch Russian railways, that ancient backbone of empire, as they buckle and break. By April 2025, an excess of 295,000 rail cars sat idle, creating bottlenecks across the transportation network. In March 2025, coordinated sabotage hit Moscow, Samara, Tver, and other regions, targeting traction equipment and signalling systems. Lack of money to maintain means speeds are well down across the country. When a continental power can’t move goods by rail, its days are numbered. Rail is a terrific bellwether for economic health.
By late 2025, the erosion will accelerate. Municipal infrastructure-already failing with chronic utility interruptions-will collapse in secondary cities. St Petersburg might keep its lights on, but places like Borzya in Zabaykalsky Krai, where residents froze during winter, will multiply across Russia’s vast periphery. The social contract between ruler and ruled, already paper-thin, will tear completely.
The smart regional leaders see the writing on the wall. Tatarstan and Bashkortostan-resource-rich, ethnically distinct, historically autonomous – are likely quietly preparing for Moscow’s weakness. When the Kremlin proposed eliminating local self-government in early 2025, these republics pushed back through the State Duma, a rare act of defiance. This wasn’t just administrative squabbling – it was a vital sign of the first muscle flex of dormant sovereignty. These republics already send their sons to die in Ukraine at disproportionate rates; Bashkortostan leads in “volunteer” losses. They’re paying in blood for a Russian identity many no longer want.
Putin’s information monopoly will crack next. By March 2025, Russia was actively blocking VPNs, with 197 apps already banned. But digital resistance adapts faster than bureaucratic control. When Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty shut down in March 2025 after Trump cut funding, regional journalism took another hit-but information hunger grew. Vacuum creates demand.
The system will reach its breaking point sometime in 2026-2027. Russia’s State Duma elections in September 2026 present a dangerous inflection point. The Kremlin hasn’t even figured out how to approach these elections-a startling admission of strategic confusion. Will the war still be raging? Will “ultra-patriotism” or “moderate forces” dominate? Nobody in the inner circle knows, which means nobody can plan. Will Putin win? Perhaps, but only in the same way the Nazi Party did in November 1933.
This uncertainty creates the perfect conditions for palace coup. Remember June 2023, when Prigozhin’s Wagner forces marched on Moscow? That rebellion exposed fatal weaknesses in Putin’s system: security services who “didn’t have the nerve to tell the president that something’s up with Prigozhin,” commanders who slept through the crisis until it was almost too late. The next challenger won’t make Prigozhin’s mistakes.
When Putin falls-and he will fall-there are three possible successors: a modernising faction seeking negotiated peace and sanctions relief; hard-line security services doubling down on war and repression; or nobody at all, as regions seize autonomy in a vacuum of central authority. The probabilities favour the first scenario (65%), with the security services option at 25%, and true fragmentation at 10%.
My probabilities reflect structural realities, not just guesstimates.
- A 65% likelihood of palace coup stems from Russia’s brittle elite loyalty-Putin’s regime survives only as long as oligarchs, siloviki, and regional bosses see him as viable. Military collapse would fracture this coalition, mirroring historical tipping points (e.g., Argentina’s junta imploding post-Falklands).
- 25% authoritarian consolidation acknowledges the regime’s capacity for short-term repression (FSB control, censorship) but assumes economic freefall (energy revenue down 40% since 2022) makes long-term dictatorship unsustainable.
- 10% fragmentation accounts for Russia’s centralized energy infrastructure and demographic cohesion (81% ethnic Russians vs. USSR’s 50%), making Yugoslavia-style breakup unlikely without catastrophic external shocks.
This weighting aligns with historical analogues: 73% of authoritarian regimes collapse via elite revolts after military defeats (RAND), while only 9% of centralised states fracture absent ethnic partitions (IMF). The numbers aren’t arbitrary, but the triage outcome of a system buckling under its own contradictions.
But these odds change daily. Every train that derails, every factory that closes, every regional boss who refuses Moscow’s orders tilts the scales toward fragmentation. The National Wealth Fund-Russia’s rainy day money-has dwindled from $175 billion in 2022 to barely $57 billion in 2024, with half tied up in illiquid assets. Once it’s gone, Moscow can’t buy loyalty anymore.
The Path of the Rouble – Rumours of its Strength Are Not Supported
Russians aren’t passive victims awaiting salvation. They’re rational actors making survival calculations. When mothers in Buryatia stop sending sons to recruitment offices, when factory workers in Perm refuse to work 12-hour shifts for worthless roubles, when Tatars demand language rights and resource control-these individual acts become collective power.
History teaches us that empires don’t recover from three simultaneous crises: military defeat, economic collapse, and identity fracture. Rome couldn’t do it. The Ottomans couldn’t do it. The Soviets couldn’t do it. Putin’s Russia is no exception.
The storm is coming. Those who ignore its approach will be swept away by forces that care nothing for ideology or wishful thinking. Only those who prepare-psychologically and practically-for the new Russia that will emerge from the ruins will navigate what comes next.
References
Russian military losses
Kyiv Independent. (2024, December 26). Russia’s inflation hits year-high, driven by war spending, food price hikes. https://kyivindependent.com/russias-inflation-hits-year-high-driven-by-war-spending-food-price-hikes-rosstat-says
EspresoTV. (2025, January 2). Russia’s army in 2024 suffers highest losses in its history. https://global.espreso.tv/russia-ukraine-war-russian-army-faces-record-losses-in-2024-detailed-review
UK Ministry of Defence. (2025, January 7). Russian losses in Ukraine nearly double in 2024 compared to 2023 [Press release]. https://global.espreso.tv/russia-ukraine-war-russias-military-losses-in-ukraine-nearly-doubled-in-2024-compared-to-2023-british-intelligence
Economic collapse indicators
The Bell. (2025, January 29). The Russian economy in 9 graphs. https://en.thebell.io/the-russian-economy-in-9-graphs/
Intellinews. (2023, October 3). Massive capital flight from Russia in 2022 left by four main channels. https://www.intellinews.com/massive-capital-flight-from-russia-in-2022-left-by-four-main-channels-295854/
Regional fragmentation risks
AsiaNews. (2024, February 9). The future of Bashkortostan, in or out of Russia. https://www.asianews.it/news-en/The-future-of-Bashkortostan,-in-or-out-of-Russia-61409.html
Wikipedia. (2025, April 11). Tatarstan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatarstan
Historical authoritarian playbooks
Journal of Democracy. (2022). How Viktor Orbán wins. https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/how-viktor-orban-wins/
BBC News. (2023, July 20). Cambodia faces rigged election as Hun Sen extends total control. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66231548
Meduza. (2024, October 30). With the war’s future uncertain, the Putin administration doesn’t know how to prepare for Russia’s next State Duma elections. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/10/30/it-s-time-for-the-kremlin-to-start-planning-russia-s-next-state-duma-elections-but-with-the-war-s-future-uncertain-many-elites-find-2026-hard-to-imagine
Infrastructure sabotage
Defence UA. (2025, April 16). Coordinated sabotage disrupted Russian railways in March 2025. https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/coordinated_sabotage_disrupted_russian_railways_in_march_2025_disabling_logistics_hubs_across_six_regions_and_targeting_power_and_fuel_systems-14204.html
Judicial/legal precedents
Bitdefender. (2025, April 3). Russia bans VPNs to block “unlawful” side of the Internet. https://www.bitdefender.com/en-gb/blog/hotforsecurity/russia-bans-vpns-to-block-unlawful-side-of-the-internet
……….
Comment from:
Brian I. ……… thank you for sharing your thoughts.
Historically Moscow’s hold on the Russian Empire has been weak. Periods of centralized control were the exception.
We are about to witness the final collapse of the Russian empire. The odds are higher than 50/50 for fragmentation.
I agree with the analysis presented — both in the clarity of the data and the strategic reading of the structural fragilities silently corroding the Russian regime. We are witnessing a typical process of internal implosion, similar to the fall of other historical empires: militarist obsession at the expense of public welfare, international isolation, internal economic collapse, and the erosion of nationalistic narratives.
Putin, by insisting on sustaining a war of attrition — morally, humanly, and financially — is mortgaging Russia’s future. You cannot keep a country functional when more is invested in tanks than in schools, hospitals, or logistical infrastructure. And when critical voices begin to emerge from peripheral republics and the families of fallen soldiers, it becomes clear that the core of power is beginning to rot.
I’m always wary of echo chambers of my own opinion but, having just returned from Ukraine, this article provides the data (and offers some insightful analysis of probable outcomes) that support my very strong sense that Russia is on the brink of catastrophic military collapse.
I don’t (yet) dare to share this author’s optimism, but God willing he’s got it right!
“History teaches us that empires don’t recover from three simultaneous crises: military defeat, economic collapse, and identity fracture. Rome couldn’t do it. The Ottomans couldn’t do it. The Soviets couldn’t do it. Putin’s Russia is no exception.”
A lot depends on the people. When you have ill-educated monkeys whose main concern is to get the next bottle of vodka, you can handle them like Playdoh. But, mafia land will still collapse. It’s a hollow-out shell of its former self. It has burned its military, its money, and economy for a sliver of trashed land. And, all those reports, numbers, and opinions from experts cannot be wrong.