“Rassvet” satellites No. 17 and No. 23 failed to reach their operational orbit and are rapidly losing altitude. Their atmospheric reentry is forecast for October 29 and November 1.
Two Russian “Rassvet” satellites, which were intended to become part of an alternative to the American Starlink system, are rapidly losing altitude and could burn up in the atmosphere as early as late October or early November. This was reported by UNN, citing Clash Report, data from the SONIKS satellite-monitoring system, and the specialized publication RussianSpaceWeb.
The spacecraft failed to reach the required orbit after being launched in July 2026. Earlier, Russia had already lost one satellite from this system because of similar problems.
Details
According to Clash Report, problems affected the “Rassvet” No. 17 and No. 23 satellites, which were part of the second batch of spacecraft launched by Russia on July 19, 2026. After being placed into an initial orbit, both satellites were supposed to independently reach their operational altitude using their own engines. However, they failed to perform the necessary maneuvers and consequently began gradually approaching Earth.
In particular, satellite No. 17 is at an altitude of about 245 kilometers and, according to Clash Report, loses approximately 1.7 kilometers every day. A similar situation is being observed with spacecraft No. 23. Information about the critical decline in altitude is also confirmed by open data from the SONIKS space-object monitoring system. As of October 13, the minimum orbital altitude of satellite No. 17 was 235.66 kilometers, while the maximum was 255.75 kilometers. For spacecraft No. 23, the corresponding figures were 232.20 and 250.05 kilometers.
According to the system’s forecasts, satellite No. 23 could enter the dense layers of the atmosphere as early as October 29, while No. 17 could do so on November 1, 2026. At the same time, these dates are preliminary and may change if the spacecraft perform corrective maneuvers. At such low orbits, the satellites are affected by atmospheric drag, which gradually reduces their speed. Without their engines operating, the spacecraft continue to lose altitude until they enter the dense layers of the atmosphere, where they usually break apart and burn up.
How Russia has already lost one “Rassvet” satellite
The current incident is not the first case of problems with Russia’s satellite system. On March 23, 2026, Russia launched the first production batch of 16 “Rassvet” spacecraft. However, one of them, satellite No. 4, was never able to begin the necessary maneuvers to raise its orbit and burned up in the atmosphere around June 6.
Later, on July 19, a second batch of 16 satellites was launched. However, as early as late August, the specialized publication RussianSpaceWeb reported that some satellites from the second batch were not demonstrating any noticeable maneuvers to raise their orbits. Two spacecraft gradually descended below 300 kilometers, creating a risk of their prematurely leaving orbit.
Overall, during 2026, Russia placed 32 production spacecraft into orbit, and together with six experimental satellites from previous years, the total number of launched spacecraft in the project reached 38.
According to the Russian industry publication ComNews, as of October 7, among the 31 production satellites that remained in orbit, 17 spacecraft had reached an altitude of about 510 kilometers. Another nine were at altitudes ranging from 446 to 498 kilometers, while five were between 253 and 375 kilometers. Thus, some Russian satellites continue to operate, but technical problems affecting individual spacecraft are complicating the deployment of a fully operational network.
What is known about Russia’s Starlink analogue
The “Rassvet” satellite system is being developed by the Russian company “Bureau 1440,” which is part of the “ICS Holding” structure. The project envisages creating a low-Earth-orbit network of broadband satellite internet intended to provide communications in remote regions and potentially be used for military purposes.
Development of the system began before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but its military significance increased after Russian forces’ access to terminals of the American Starlink system was restricted.
Russia expects that its own satellite network will reduce dependence on foreign communications technologies, particularly during combat operations. According to the published plans, Moscow aims to deploy a constellation of 292 satellites by 2027 and increase their number to 924 by 2035. The system is scheduled to begin commercial operations in 2027.
Despite the difficulties, the developer continues testing satellite communications. In particular, on October 7, the company conducted a public video call between Adygea and Moscow via the “Rassvet” system. It lasted about five minutes. However, as industry experts note, such tests do not yet indicate that a fully operational network capable of providing uninterrupted coverage over large areas is ready.
How Russia’s satellite system threatens Ukraine
Despite the technical problems, Ukrainian intelligence considers the development of the “Rassvet” system a potential threat. In August 2026, Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, reported that Russia was deploying its own satellite system faster than anticipated in previous plans.
According to Ukrainian military intelligence, the Russian military has already used the first group of “Rassvet” satellites to provide communications over Ukrainian territory for several hours. In the future, such a network could be used to transmit intelligence, coordinate military units, and control unmanned aerial vehicles. But there is a nuance: to ensure uninterrupted satellite communications, the enemy needs to deploy significantly more spacecraft than it currently has.
Recall
At the end of September, Ukraine called on the United States to impose sanctions on several Russian organizations that, according to Ukraine, are helping develop Moscow’s “Rassvet” satellite network, a national alternative to SpaceX’s Starlink.
© 2026 UNN
Cadant satellites moscovitae et in igne caeli pereant.”
😁✌️