11.11.2026
The potential of Putin’s army is rapidly decreasing. Source: Getty Images
The military potential of the aggressor country Russia is practically exhausted. The Kremlin probably realizes that they will not be able to wage war indefinitely. At the same time, they are in no hurry to stop it, because they hope to “strangle” Ukraine, using the unfavorable political situation that may arise after the elections in European countries that are key partners of our country.
The enemy has big problems with manpower. First of all, due to the increase in losses on the front – currently they exceed 2 thousand per day – and also due to the fact that the number of Russians willing to sign a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry is becoming smaller and smaller – they understand that the payments can only be “grave”. Therefore, the Ukrainian General Staff’s bet on the further reduction of the human resources of the occupation army is quite correct. If the level of losses remains the same or even increases, within a few months the enemy army will completely lose its offensive potential.
This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by the co-director of foreign policy programs, coordinator of international projects of the Razumkov Center, military expert Oleksiy Melnyk.
– On the eve of the US elections, it was often said that Putin is in a hurry to resolve all his issues, in particular the so-called “Ukrainian issue”, by this date or, perhaps, by January, when the renewed Congress begins its work. Do you think that the Kremlin has a certain time limit? Or, on the contrary, there are no time limits for it?
– In my opinion, if we talk about deadlines, not those that Putin himself once set, some symbolic dates, etc., but real deadlines, then it is appropriate to talk about the calculations that the Russian leadership is obviously guided by, how long they can continue this war.
Reports from pro-government Russian official sources about the state of the Russian economy, Putin’s speeches at some Russia-Africa forums, Lavrov’s statements at the G20 indicate that they are trying to create the impression that the Russian economy is great, that Russia is a very high-tech state, etc. In fact, objective indicators indicate that the Russian economy is in a state of recession or is approaching this state, and Russia’s military potential is practically exhausted. Most likely, they understand that they will not be able to continue this war indefinitely.
And if we talk about ties to some international events, to events taking place in the USA, in Europe, then Russia can expect changes in the political ruling forces in key countries in Europe – France, Germany. Therefore, they may even be interested in delaying until the moment when, according to their calculations, forces come to power in Europe that will not support Ukraine or at least actively support it. And then they will finally be able to strangle Ukraine economically.
As for the results of the elections that took place in the United States, there are very different assessments of how Trump might act even after January. But Trump is predictable in his unpredictability, so I think that here the Russians could be very wrong about what they are betting on.
– Indeed, Trump is very unpredictable, which cannot be said about Russia’s allies – China, North Korea, Iran, which are obviously more predictable. Do you think that support for Russia from these allies is also a fairly significant factor in the continuation of the war? How do you assess the contribution of these countries to Russia’s ability to continue waging war?
– Everything is clear about the DPRK. North Korea, as the Russians themselves say, is their only ally today. That is, they do not see an ally in Belarus, China, or Iran. Their only ally, and this is actually the case, is the DPRK. This is not because Kim Jong-un loves Putin or Russia, but because Russia is simply a gold mine for them, a window of opportunity for the North Korean regime, because they earn tens of times more currency than before, due to supplies to Russia. Accordingly, they can raise the stakes in their game with their main opponents, the United States, or with their neighbors in the region.
If we talk about China, then it is now profitable for it to continue this war. China also makes money from this both economically and geopolitically. Therefore, China will take a position of neutral plundering until it sees that this threatens its economic interests.
When the idea was voiced that Putin wanted to bring together the leaders of the US and China and divide the world, quite valuable information emerged that Steinmeier had a conversation with the Chinese leader, who pretended not to know anything about it and was surprised.
– In recent weeks, the losses of the Russian occupation army on the battlefield have increased significantly. Every day they exceed 2 thousand. At the same time, the popular opinion is that Russia has a very large resource of manpower. But is this really so? Currently, there are fewer and fewer people willing to join the army in Russia, even for the rather large money they can receive. How do you assess the human resources of the enemy country?
– This is a very good question. As you know, this is one of Russia’s key advantages. Manpower both in quantitative terms and in how freely Russian commanders can dispose of it. Because it is impossible to imagine such a high threshold of tolerance of the population for such losses in Russia, except, perhaps, that very North Korea. I don’t know about China, because China has not participated in hostilities recently. All those losses, all the cemeteries with flags, memorials, etc. cannot be hidden by propaganda or censorship, but the Russians tolerate it.
At the same time, if the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers is not active in Russia, as was the case during the two Chechen wars, this does not mean that there is no reaction.
In fact, the main incentive is that you win the jackpot, get a few million rubles, get into the middle class, pay off all your debts, etc. But even the most clueless understand that when it comes to cash payments, at best, if they don’t get fooled, aren’t listed in the Social Security Administration, as they say, or are listed as missing, they’ll be in the grave.
Alexey Melnyk.Source: Glavred
Therefore, this mechanism, this scheme of attracting new forces for money, has indeed reached its limit somewhere. This is evident from the information that also comes from various sources. Therefore, a hybrid format of voluntary recruitment is now developing quite actively. The work of the so-called recruiters, or, in fact, manhunters, has already been worked out in several regions of Russia. Using various schemes, they are retraining potential contract workers. So, everything is going well. But still, this does not give the increase that could be provided in 2022, when several hundred thousand were mobilized at once.
There were different opinions about whether Putin would go for another mass mobilization, but as we see, more than a month has passed since the elections, but the Russian authorities are not taking such a step. Obviously, their closed sociology shows that it is inexpedient to do so.
Therefore, in this case, the bet on the maximum destruction of the enemy’s manpower is correct. If this pace is maintained, and even better, it will continue to increase, then it is obvious that the limited offensive potential that Russia currently has may be completely exhausted in the coming months.
The results of the last two months show that Russia is losing more territory than it is gaining. While there has been progress in some areas, the overall balance is not in Russia’s favor.
– Does this mean that at some point in time the Russian occupation army will be forced to stop?
– If we look along the entire front line, there is no advancement. At the same time, this does not mean that the line of combat contact is not changing. Because the advancement is the same, say, in the Pokrovsk area. But there success is achieved due to numerical superiority, since more than 160 thousand people are concentrated on a 50-kilometer section and the same tactics of throwing bodies are working.
But, as we have already said, the number is getting smaller, so the Russian command is forced to transfer forces from other directions, weaken them, and then the Ukrainian Defense Forces use these opportunities. How long this will last is difficult to say, but the trend is there. It is obvious that by trying to capture the remnants of the Donetsk region, Russia is losing control over previously occupied territories in other places.
The cockroach army is no longer a formidable force. Their only strength is shoving ever more cheap meat into the grinder to keep the lines somewhat intact. The other strength they have is killing civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure.