12.07.2025
Missile and drone attacks by the aggressor country Russia on Ukraine have become much more massive. In fact, the enemy is setting new records. This is not just about terrorizing the civilian population, but also about systematic strikes on military and critical facilities for the Ukrainian defense industry. At the same time, the accuracy of the strikes indicates that the enemy is using the help of agents inside Ukraine. This is, in particular, confirmed by the shelling of facilities in Lutsk and Kyiv. At the same time, Russia’s capabilities in the production of drones are rapidly growing and, apparently, will continue to grow.
How to confront these challenges? Should Ukraine introduce a fundamentally new approach to protecting its own skies? A simple increase in the number of air defense assets is, of course, extremely necessary, in particular, Patriot-type systems, which are almost the only ones capable of shooting down ballistic missiles. But countermeasures should not only be defensive. Asymmetric solutions are needed – strikes on Russian production facilities and the physical elimination of key developers and functionaries of drone programs. In addition, two initiatives cause optimism: the Ukrainian-German program to create our own missiles and the signing of a memorandum with the Swift Beat company, which plans to produce 10 thousand interceptor drones to protect our country in the near future.
This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by former employee of the Security Service of Ukraine Ivan Stupak .
– We see that, unfortunately, the enemy’s missile and drone attacks are becoming more and more large-scale, in fact, Russia is breaking its own records. And it seems that the enemy’s capabilities are also growing every day. Do you think that this is really so and that it is not just a question of a certain IPSO?
– The possibilities really exist, and they are definitely growing. I will give you the following analysis. If in November 2024, Russia produced 90 drones per day, then in June of this year 160 drones per day. This is a large number, this is an insane number. They have the opportunity to do this. What is their bar, what is the final limit, what material or other resources, no one can say. No one can say whether a thousand will be produced per month, or 5 thousand, no one knows. And the point is that they will continue to accelerate their capabilities.
Regarding the attacks of the Russian Federation, I emphasize again and again that this is no longer about terrorizing the civilian population, although it is partially present. This is more about hitting military and paramilitary facilities. Everything that works to provide for the army. The production of microcircuits, microelectronics, components for drones, the Ukrainian missile program, air defense systems. All of these are objects of attack by the Russian Federation.
I say again and again that Ukrainians work here, inside. They help the Russian Federation inside. I put more emphasis on this. Unfortunately, these people are still here.
– So you mean a certain Kremlin agent?
– Yes, these are the people who strike. For example, you saw yesterday’s (July 9. – Ed.) map of strikes on Lutsk, on the Volyn region. Everything is concentrated, everything is there. This means that the enemy was not just looking for targets at random, he knew exactly where to strike.
It’s the same story with Kyiv. They knew where to strike. After the last attack, they checked their data, saw what was destroyed, what was partially destroyed, and organized this strike again.
– You said that Russia will probably increase the production of “Shaheeds”. This is also the opinion of analysts from the Institute for the Study of War. According to their estimates , by the fall of this year Russia will be able to use over a thousand drones in one attack. Do you think, under such circumstances, it is possible to change the fundamental approach to destroying these “Shaheeds”? What could be a fundamentally different approach in air defense in order to ensure the security of at least the capital?
– The first thought is that we need more air defense, more shooting down, but this is a kind of reactive moment. We are not catching up. The Russians are doing more, and we are catching up.
In my opinion, non-standard methods are primarily the destruction of the Russian Federation’s production facilities themselves, as well as the destruction of key engineers, functionaries of drone production programs, advanced designers, etc.
– As far as I remember, our SBU and GUR have not previously dealt with engineers?
– Well, at least we haven’t seen it yet. Maybe they’re working on it, but that’s my assumption, subjective subjectivism. We haven’t seen them. There were military men, chiefs of staff, responsible intelligence officers, but there were no engineers. By the way, Israel is working on the functionaries of the Iranian nuclear program. These are leading engineers, specialists, etc. I think we should have the same.
Shooting down drones every now and then is great, but let me give you an analogy: A boxer who keeps punching will sooner or later start to miss. You have to punch back.
– Unfortunately, the ballistics hit rate remains quite low. How do you think it can be increased?
– Of course, it’s more missiles, more air defense systems, but so far we know that only Patriot can shoot down ballistics. Yes, they say that the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system is also capable of shooting down ballistics, but frankly, I haven’t seen such confirmed data.
I clearly know that the Europeans are working on this issue, trying to re-equip their systems that they have in service so that they have the ability to shoot down ballistic missiles and not be dependent on American systems. After all, everyone in the world has already realized that sooner or later the Americans can throw missiles at anyone, not give them, say, you don’t need them, we need them in another region. Therefore, there must be their own analogues.
– Trump spoke about the transfer of an additional Patriot system to Ukraine , but noted that he had not yet approved the decision. In your opinion, plus one Patriot is a significant strengthening of our air defense, in particular, in the defense of Kyiv? Are the Patriot missiles that we already have more important for us than another Patriot installation ?
– It seems to me that missiles should be the first, but we don’t know how many systems we have. According to various estimates, seven. Obviously, if you just hand over the installation without missiles, it’s like a car without gasoline. You need to have everything in the complex.
– Could you tell me if there are reasons for optimism in this situation?
– Yes. The first is the Ukrainian-German missile program. Germany is helping us a lot with this. Boris Pistorius brought us 1.9 billion euros. I assume that a large part of this amount will go to the missile program – our own ballistic missile and our own cruise missile. And then we will see how the Russians can shoot them down.
It will be interesting. And it can help us a lot. Not immediately, not on the first launch, but it will help destroy some large objects at the 300-plus kilometer mark in the occupied territories, somewhere behind Donetsk, behind Luhansk, places where Russian mobsters, conscripts, FSB officers gather, where they live compactly, in sanatoriums, in rest homes, in sports boarding schools, hotels, etc. And in general, at neighboring military facilities. The destruction of such large objects will really be painful for Russia. This is the first.
Secondly. Last week, President Zelensky signed a memorandum with the Swift Beat company. It would seem to be an ordinary memorandum, of which there have already been thousands. But it concerns the production of interceptor drones. Someone will say: these interceptor drones again, they have already been talked about a lot, but where are they? They are there, but so far in small numbers.
What is important is who signed this memorandum. This is Eric Schmidt, the guru of Silicon Valley in the United States. This is a person who was the chairman of the board of directors of Google. This is a dollar billionaire. He said that he would appear in Ukraine more often, approximately three times a year. He plans to invest a billion US dollars in Ukraine, to find investments for the production of drones.
What is the planning horizon? He sees that within three months, Ukraine should already have 10,000 interceptor drones. And this number should increase. That is, a billion dollars and 10,000 interceptor drones.
I think it will be very good. This applies not only to the Shaheds, but also to the drones that are hanging in the air above the demarcation line, over Kharkiv, over the Dnieper, over Sumy, over Kyiv. All of this will be shot down by these interceptor drones.
Good things are soon coming our way.