20.10.2025
Last week, I wrote that the Russian fuel industry is on its knees, and Putin has raised the white flag. Recent events have not only confirmed this, but also shown an even worse dynamic for the Russian Federation, as the Russian dictator has loudly “fucked up”. True, not everyone noticed and understood this. For some reason, our media focused on the fact that “Ukraine was not given a tomahawk”.
Events on the economic front unfolded very quickly. India has abandoned Russian oil. Most likely, there will be no complete abandonment, but a significant part of the oil from the Russian Federation will be replaced by oil from Venezuela. And although the Indian side did not declare this, official statements were made from the White House. The US set India simple conditions: either Russian oil at a discount + duties on all goods from India, or oil from other sources and the end of the trade war. It is clear that the Indians made a more profitable choice for them. Market data shows that the Indians are preparing to change suppliers: in early October, oil supplies from the Russian Federation to India increased, apparently to form reserves that must be there to survive the pause in logistics changes.
While some analysts were following the events in India, on 16.10.25 the Japanese government announced that it was ready to consider the proposal of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant to refuse to import Russian energy resources. I think that the Japanese will agree with the US proposal, especially taking into account the experience of Indian trade negotiations. Cheap Russian liquefied gas (9% of imports to Japan) together with an increased trade duty from the US is worse than not so cheap American liquefied gas, but without additional American duties.
I will simply skip the episodes of improving cooperation with the US, Turkey and a few other countries, so as not to inflate the text. But so that life does not seem like a cakewalk for the Russians, the White House administration threatened China with new tariffs. These threats predictably caused the price of oil on world markets to fall, and with it the price of the Russian Urals variety. The US simply squeezed the Russian Federation out of its traditional markets, on the income of which the Russians are accustomed to relying. It is simply impossible to bypass such a “complex of market measures”, neither through shadow tankers nor through digital yuans. And most importantly, the Russian Federation will not soon return to the markets from which it was squeezed out, because the place has already been taken.
Against the background of the complete economic trash that is currently being stored in the Russian Federation and the “complex of market measures” from the United States, the tomahawks can be considered simply a “tasty” dressing for the Trump salad that Putin was fed. And so Putin, who a week ago was dreaming of Pechenegs and Polovtsians, started calling Trump to prevent what could happen against the background of a sharp deterioration in the Russian Federation’s economic prospects.
I understand and share the disappointment of part of our society that we were not given a tomahawk for an adequate response to Moscow, but that will be in the next series. In this series, the “terrible dictator” realized that he had overstayed his welcome in trade, got scared and took a step towards negotiations. Of course, there is always the option when the Russians will again start telling the Americans about the Polovtsians, Ruriks and other fairy tales to pass the time. But the tightening of the economic noose by the US and the pro-Ukrainian sentiment in the EU are clearly not a positive factor for the Russians.
On the other hand, what will happen when the fighting stops on the LBS? Europe will not return to consuming Russian energy resources, India is already planning to switch to other oil, Japan is considering replacing Russian liquefied gas. Putin will not disband his army either, and he will not reorient military-industrial enterprises to the production of dishes and linen.
Therefore, in the near future, we expect a bunch of new dirty tricks from our eastern neighbors: shelling, provocations, information leaks, Mindich’s tapes (that’s already happened))) there were only Melnychenko’s tapes), the decontainment of old agents, etc.
Even without a single Tomahawk, the Ukrainians have done great at reducing the mafia fossil fuel industry and ruining its economy. It needs to continue hammering its oil infrastructure until the shithole collapses.
“…the Russian Federation, as the Russian dictator has loudly “fucked up”. True, not everyone noticed and understood this. For some reason, our media focused on the fact that “Ukraine was not given a tomahawk”.
For some reason…;)
The best part about all of this is putler can’t afford to stop the war and he can’t afford to carry on with it. His only hope is for TACO to force Ukraine into capitulation, but that ain’t going to happen.
Right, the runt painted himself into a corner. Except, the paint ain’t gonna dry anytime soon to let him out.
Now they’ll drag the setup of this nazi convention in Hungary for as long as possible, to give putler even more time not to take Pokrovsk, and for Ukraine to set more oil refineries on fire.