Jun 5, 2024

Russia is facing a wave of destruction from a new quarter: small drones flown by partisan groups within its own borders and in occupied territory. The new weapons make existing security measures obsolete, and open up many new targets for large-scale sabotage. Alongside Ukraine’s growing long-range drone strike capability small sabotage drones could simultaneously set Russia ablaze while throwing it into darkness. But the effects may not be confined to Russia for long.

Partisans Drone Attacks

The partisans tipped their hand with attacks on the Kremlin last May with small, short-range quadcopters flown from a few miles away at most. While larger drones presumably launched from Ukraine have also hit Moscow, there are groups within Russia carrying out such attacks. The Kremlin attack was symbolic but the current wave are entirely practical.

It is not easy to separate drone strikes from the background noise of general disruption in Russia. The Ukrainian OSINT agency Molfar, which tracks sabotage inside Russia told me that they do not specifically identify cases where small drones were used.

Sometimes there are indications that an attack was carried out by local groups with drones. For example, one recent FPV drone attack which destroyed a BUK mobile air defence system took place sixty miles behind Russian lines, far beyond FPV range.

A Russian freight train was derailed after a drone hit a tank car carrying diesel fuel in the first attack of its type. Ukraine’s long range drones cannot, as far as is known, hit moving targets and have never targeted trains so again this looks like a short-range FPV strike.

There is also video of FPV strikes on Russian electricity substations. Older substations still use flammable oil for cooling, so they burn fiercely when ignited and are vulnerable to even small explosions. We are now starting to see Russian substations protected by light netting: this would not stop a 400-pound long-range drone and appears to be a defence against bombs from small sabotage drones.

The attacks shows how small drones can hit high-value targets from a safe distance. A growing number of groups are now able to carry out such attacks.

Drone Sabotage Get Into Gear

After the Kremlin attack, CNN reported: “Ukraine has cultivated a network of agents and sympathizers inside Russia working to carry out acts of sabotage against Russian targets and has begun providing them with drones to stage attacks” citing U.S. intelligence sources.

Since then a variety of Russian opposition groups have started taking action. A Tatar group calling itself Machine Uprising or Rise of the Drones “created in response to the repression of the occupiers against Tatar” offers advice on drone use and training, including software downloads.

A partisan using the handle Medici, founder of the White Bear group, told me that there are several groups in Russian-occupied Ukraine plus anti-Putin groups inside Russia itself now buying and flying small drones for attacks.

The Russians have been quick to appreciate the threat, but countering it is not simple. Drone no-fly zones have now been imposed across vast swathes of Russia. These days, drone hobby flying is limited to Siberia.

Russia also jams GPS signals over much of its territory in an attempt to prevent drones from flying. While this will stop many consumer quadcopters, it is useless against cheap FPV drones which do not have satellite navigation.

There are strict rules on importing drones, which cause problems for Russian volunteer groups trying to buy drones for the troops. But as CNN notes, drone smuggling is common, and made possible by high levels of corruption among the border guards. Money is tight in Russia, and, as one informant noted, “cash works wonders.”

Russia: The Original Drone Saboteurs

There is some irony in Russia suffering to drone sabotage when arguably Russian infiltration units perfected the method.

Back in 2015-18, years before the latest invasion, a series of massive explosions hit Ukraine’s ammunition storage depots. In one such event near Kharkiv, fire and explosion destroyed thousands of tons of munitions and forced the evacuation 20,000 people from nearby housing.

As I noted at the time, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) discovered that the explosions were caused by quadcopter drones dropping thermite grenades, specifically the Russian ZMG-1, a high-temperature incendiary weapon. The attacks showed spectacularly how small drones can have a disproportionate effect by striking in the right place. The SBU believed the attacks were carried out by Russian Spetsnaz Special Forces units operating inside Ukraine but they were never caught: unlike other methods, drone sabotage can be carried out from a distance.

In hindsight, these attacks, which destroyed billions of dollars of artillery ammunition, rockets and other munitions were an effective way of weakening Ukraine and making it less capable of fighting the full-scale war which was to follow.

Drones Are Now Everybdy’s Problem

The tables have now been turned and Russia itself faces widespread drone attacks. Hardening an entire country’s infrastructure against a threat that can travel miles and fly over walls and fences is going to be a major challenge.

But both sides can use drones. A spate of fires across Europe — an IKEA in Vilnius, a Polish shopping mall and others — have been blamed on a suspected Russian sabotage campaign. Arson , which only requires a small ignition source to cause massive destruction, is an obvious application for drones. The Russians will not have forgotten how effective they were in Ukraine.

Meanwhile the U.S Justice Department is prosecuting a Chinese national for flying a drone over the Newport News shipyard in Virginia where an aircraft carrier and nuclear submarines are under construction.

Small drones are produced by the million and universally available. What happens next in Russia may become a textbook example of how much damage drone sabotage by small groups of determined individuals can do — and a lesson for other countries to learn from.

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David Hambling

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/06/05/russias-new-danger-saboteurs-with-drones/?ss=aerospace-defense