September 22, 2026
Vyacheslav Shiryaev, an independent Russian economist, told NV how the Russian government has manipulated economic data to turn a decline into growth — and why that game will soon end.
Russia’s economic downturn will become evident in the third-quarter results this year, as early as October: Ukrainian strikes on marketplace warehouses and fuel shortages are reducing consumption, which authorities have so far relied on to keep the statistics in positive territory.
Shiryaev, an independent Russian economic analyst, discussed the outlook in an interview with NV.
He estimates that the Bank of Russia is about to find itself trapped: Inflation will require it to raise its key interest rate, while the economic downturn will require it to cut the rate.
Russia’s overall positive economic statistics have so far been sustained by military orders, masking a decline in civilian industries. Government procurement in Russia rose 36.2% in the first eight months of the year to 9 trillion rubles ($107 billion), while production of mainline freight railcars, for example, fell 30.7% from January through July.
Ukraine began striking marketplace warehouses in the third quarter. Shiryaev said that, combined with fuel shortages, the destruction of warehouses means fewer goods and higher delivery costs, once again fueling inflation. “The third quarter will reveal the truth because they will no longer be able to point to consumer demand,” he said.
Based on the July-September results, Shiryaev estimates Russian authorities will face a choice: manufacture 0.5% growth that everyone will see as a lie, or acknowledge a decline in GDP. A lie would undermine confidence in the financial system, while acknowledging a downturn would push the central bank to cut the rate when it needs to raise it. “The divergence between these two forces will be at its greatest, and the pressure will be at its highest: They need to raise the rate, but the economy is contracting, so they need to lower it,” the economist said.
On Sept. 11, the Bank of Russia, headed by Elvira Nabiullina, halted its rate cuts for the first time in 15 months, keeping the key rate at 14% and citing the situation in the fuel market among the reasons. Shiryaev believes that based on current indicators, particularly inflation, the central bank needs a rate of 20–21%, as it did at the end of 2024. At the time, the central bank was raising the rate amid near-stagnation; now, the downturn has already begun. “For now, Nabiullina has managed to get away with a half-measure, but going forward, the economic situation will require a decision,” Shiryaev said.
This year’s budget deficit has already exceeded the target: From January through August, it reached 5.8 trillion rubles ($69 billion), compared with the 3.8 trillion rubles ($45 billion) planned for the entire year. The government must submit next year’s budget to the State Duma and, Shiryaev estimates, will project a deficit of 6–7 trillion rubles ($71–83 billion), while the actual figure will exceed 10 trillion rubles ($119 billion). That will increase pressure on the sovereign debt market, where yields are already rising and the Moscow Exchange government bond index is falling.
Russian authorities are publicly downplaying the scale of the problems. Shiryaev noted that officials call the downturn “overcooling”: “Translated into plain language, that means the trend is already negative; otherwise, they would call it ‘cooling.’”
“Russian authorities are publicly downplaying the scale of the problems. Shiryaev noted that officials call the downturn “overcooling”: “Translated into plain language, that means the trend is already negative; otherwise, they would call it ‘cooling.’”
That’s a good point. But it doesn’t take an economic expert to realize that the mafia state is in deep economic problems. It can kick the can down the road for a short while, but the end of the road is already in view.