28 April 2026

Russia may now be one shock away from a bank run. Corporate bad loans have reportedly climbed above 11%, more than double the European Union’s serious supervisory threshold, while Russians pulled nearly $20 billion from bank accounts in January alone. That is how a banking problem becomes public panic: businesses stop paying, banks start protecting cash, and ordinary people begin wondering whether their savings will still be reachable tomorrow.

Jason Smart walks through the sequence Russia is already entering. Bad loans rise, banks grow defensive, businesses miss payments, depositors pull cash, and fear begins moving faster than official reassurance. Personal deposits reportedly fell 2.4% in a single month, and much of that money is now outside the banking system, where it no longer supports lending, liquidity, or trust.

The danger is that this financial stress is hitting while Putin is paying for a long war, absorbing heavy losses, and watching Ukrainian strikes reach energy infrastructure such as Tuapse. That is why the banking story now belongs inside the war story. A rumor about withdrawal limits, a payment glitch, or one visible bank line could turn Russia’s private anxiety into public panic very quickly.