10.06.2026

An expert explained how the Ukrainian Armed Forces could turn the occupied peninsula into a trap for the Russian army.

Following strikes on Chongar and attacks on Russian logistics Crimea is getting closer to a blockade. There is already talk on the peninsula of fuel shortages and panic among the population.

What will happen to occupied Crimea if the Ukrainian Armed Forces cut off all supply routes, including the Kerch Bridge?

The website Charter97.org asked Ukrainian political strategist and managing partner of the “National Anti-Crisis Group,” Taras Zagorodniy, for his comments:
— It all depends on the plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces command, because in this case, Ukraine’s main objective is to drive troops out of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in order to control the coastline. Therefore, the key is to ensure that the occupiers have no opportunity to resist Ukrainian forces.

Crimea is a hub that supports this group of occupiers. I think Crimea needs to be “marinated” a little longer so that the Russian military has absolutely no enthusiasm left. They must understand that they will still have to flee Crimea first and foremost, just as happened on the right bank of the Kherson region in 2022, when the Antonovsky Bridge was destroyed and the Russians were forced to leave.

It will become impossible to supply a large force in Crimea. It is impossible to maintain troops when there is nothing to supply them with. After all, there are basic necessities: for example, there is no water—it is a steppe. You need at least three liters of water per person. Then you calculate how many liters per day are needed to supply, say, 10,000 people. Then you calculate how much food needs to be delivered. And if there’s no fuel, many other problems arise.

That’s why I think the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions are the priority after all. And beyond that—we’ll see how it goes. Because it would be risky to carry out any amphibious operations in Crimea: that would require a huge number of people. Second: if you start to control Crimea, the Russians can very easily bomb it. That means you’d have to deploy a new air defense system there and much more. There are a lot of such military nuances involved.

— Could a shortage of fuel and food trigger protests or so-called “hunger riots” against the occupying authorities?

— That’s possible. But whether there will actually be any protests—I’m still skeptical. After all, the occupiers’ repressive apparatus is quite strong; they can suppress them.

I think this will mostly demoralize the troops stationed there and the FSB agents, who will realize that it’s all over. If the occupying authorities flee, then perhaps something will happen. But for now, I don’t think any riots will break out.

— What else must the Ukrainian Armed Forces do to make the Russian troops’ presence in Crimea too costly and risky for Moscow?

— It is enough to completely disrupt logistics at this stage and continue striking targets that are important to the occupiers. We are already seeing the first steps in this direction.

https://charter97.org/en/news/2026/6/10/687247