Lyman Counter Offensive.

ROBIN HORSFALL

OCT 06, 2026

At great expenses in men and materiel, Russian forces have spent the past 18 months attempting make a two-pronged advance towards Lyman with the aim of capturing this central city in Donetsk Oblast. They had slowly advanced towards Sloviansk and Mikolaivka, with the use of small individual fireteams supported by drones. Slow and phenomenally expensive, Russia’s small incremental advances were lauded by Russia and some western media as successes based on the simplistic principle of gained territory. It was estimated since 2025, Russia had gained less than 200km squared in this region.

In response to the Russian threat to Lyman , Ukraine launched operation Vivaldi, a counter-attack on two fronts. One from the west and one from the north with the initial intention of halting and pushing back the Russian incursion.

Operation Vivaldi is a Ukrainian Third Army Corps counteroffensive in northern Donetsk Oblast, and was launched on 15 September. Initially it recaptured between 125 and 200 square kilometres and introduced unprecedented use of air‑deployed, unmanned, ground vehicles.

However, in the past twenty-four hours the situation changed. Ukrainian troops advanced rapidly from the north and west to reach the Donetsk River. Russian forces south of the river found themselves outflanked. Over optimistic reporting on the battlefield situation by Russian commanders north of the river meant those in the south and west were unaware of the threat to their northern flank. The UAF advanced then linked up with their western forces and crossed the river in the face of retreating Russians, while in the west a similar situation arose.

Corps Commander Brig. General Andrii Biletskyi commanding Operation Vivaldi, seeing the sudden breakdown of Russian forces on both of his fronts and realising he had an opportunity, ordered his troops to continue their advance across the river and to pursue the enemy. It is possible his initial limit of exploitation was the river; at this point their mission of halting the Russian advance would have been accomplished, but good generals with freedom of action and the right to use their initiative are able to exploit unexpected advantages.

As the UAF troops crossed the Donetsk river they overran Russian logistical centres, low level command posts and most crucially, operation sites holding drone pilots. Without drone cover the fleeing Russian forces had no airborne protection and Russian artillery had no artillery fire control observation, the result of which was to increase Russian panic causing the retreat to continue. This counter-attack if it continues could expand into a regional counter offensive.

Between 15^th and 26^th September Ukraine has recovered an estimated 800km squared of occupied land, and according to reports today, the advance is continuing. How far it goes depends on available support troops and logistics, but it is already a crushing defeat for Putin after Russia’s diplomatic hammering by the UN General Assembly this week.

Polish foreign minister Sikorski told Russia they are outnumbered and out funded by Europe and no matter how long they drag this war out they cannot win. If you haven’t seen this I recommend you go to this link.

Putin desperately needs some kind of victory to prove to his population he is making some headway, but this is proving ever harder. All across Russia employers are laying off staff; those in work are not getting paid on time, if at all. Returning, wounded veterans are being denied compensation and veteran pensions and soldiers on crutches have been filmed searching through waste bins for food scraps. Recently unemployed civilians have denied state assistance and given the option of join the Russian armed forces to fight in Ukraine or starve. Many are choosing to run for the border, starve, or hide. Border crossings from Russia to Georgia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are closed to prevent suitable cannon fodder from escaping Putin’s military clutches, while In the west almost all access to Europe has ceased. The Iron Curtain has returned to Europe.

Ukraine continues to attack Russian oil refineries and strangle the economy. Russia responded with mass drone attacks on Ukrainian cities with one successful attack on a Macdonalds warehouse. It’s not quite the same as a Wildberries logistical hub, but Putin needs all the ham he can get.

This is a crucial time for all concerned. The weather will change soon, the rains will come, and it will get colder. Soldiers in trenches will lose the cover from view provided by leaves on trees. The poor bloody infantrymen (PBI) will dig in and hope for resupply, but the Russian economy will continue to fail. Back in Moscow it is going to be a very cold winter, especially if there is no fuel.

Slava Ukraini!

I write to fight.

Robin Horsfall

https://robinhorsfall.co.uk/about/

About