8.10.2025
Recently, a leak of Russian documents revealed the real losses of the Russian Federation on the front since the beginning of 2025. He also indicated that in some areas the Russians are suffering abnormally high losses: the ratio of killed and wounded is almost 1 to 1 – with a classic ratio of 1 to 3.
The aggressor paid the highest price in several priority areas for Moscow, but Russia’s gains there are practically negligible. What do the merged data indicate and what can be said about the prospects for continuing the war, based on the current losses of the Russian Federation, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) told.
The ratio of killed and wounded in the Russian army is abnormally high
Analysts have drawn attention to the leak of Russian data on the losses of the occupation army, published recently by the “I Want to Live” project.
According to the leak, from January to August of this year, Russia lost a total of 281,550 of its soldiers on the battlefield .
86,744 people were eliminated (including 1,583 officers and 8,633 recruits).
33,996 people are considered missing, including 11,427 recruits.
Another 158,529 were wounded in battle (this figure includes 6,356 officers and 16,489 enlisted men ), and 2,311 were taken prisoner.
These figures, noted ISW, are practically in line with the data announced by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky: 299,210 people killed and wounded as of September 9.
The ratio of killed and wounded occupiers is interesting: it is 1:1.3. Analysts suggest that this is due to insufficient tactical medical training and the frequent inability of the Russian military command to sufficiently rehabilitate the wounded.
” The standard ratio of killed to wounded is 1:3 , which demonstrates that Russian forces currently have an abnormally high ratio of killed to wounded (1:1.3), likely due to the effectiveness of widespread tactical drone strikes , which have created hit zones (an area immediately near the front line where the mass of tactical strike and reconnaissance drones poses an increased risk to any equipment or personnel entering the area) throughout the theater of operations, making it difficult for both sides to evacuate the wounded and triage them,” the material says.
Analysts also recalled that ISW previously reported that wounded invaders are often not evacuated due to the threat of strikes by Ukrainian drones.
Where the Russian occupiers suffer the greatest losses
Data released by the “I Want to Live” project indicates that the Russians suffered the greatest losses in 2025 on several front lines – those that are priorities for the Russian command.
Thus, among the “record holders” is the “Center” group of troops of the Russian Armed Forces , responsible for the Pokrovsky direction : from January to August, it had 43,709 killed, missing and captured, as well as 52,865 wounded .
“These figures reflect the priority of the Russian military command on the Pokrovsky direction during 2025, as Russian troops suffered approximately 34% of their losses in this direction during the first eight months of 2025,” the material says.
Within the “Center” group of forces itself, there are also clear “leaders”. These are the 2nd Combined Arms Army, which lost 15,310 people killed, missing and captured, as well as 16,260 wounded, and the 51st Army (former 1st Army Corps “DPR”) with 13,000 people killed, missing and captured, as well as 14,201 wounded.
The Russian 2nd Combined Arms Army has been mainly engaged in battles south and east of Pokrovsk since October 2023, while the 51st was redeployed to the front line east of Pokrovsk in early 2025 and is currently responsible for the Russian breakthrough in the Dobropillya area.
Analysts also mentioned the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Center Group of Forces of the Russian Armed Forces, which operated in the Novopavlovsk and Pokrovsk directions and lost 7,544 people killed, missing and captured, as well as 13,335 wounded.
“Russian forces were unable to capture Pokrovsk, Myrnograd, Novopavlivka, and Druzhkivka after months of fighting, despite significant losses ,” ISW noted.
Not far behind the “Center” was the “North ” group of troops, which in early 2025, as analysts noted, “prevented significant penetration of Ukraine into the Kursk region ” and is responsible for Russia’s efforts to create buffer zones in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions : it lost a total of 53,572 people.
“Russian forces may have suffered a significant portion of these losses during the intensified Russian efforts to retake the Kursk region in February and March 2025 ,” the material states.
The top three “leaders” also include the “West” group of troops, responsible for the Kupyansky, Lymansky and Borivsky directions : it lost a total of 47,410 servicemen.
Thus, the 1st Guards Tank Army, which was mainly involved in the Lyman and Kupyan directions, lost 9,987 people killed, missing and captured, as well as 11,411 wounded. This is the third largest figure among the Russian naval forces fighting in Ukraine. And such losses, analysts emphasize, emphasize the intensity of the fighting in the Kupyan and Lyman directions in recent months.
The 20th Combined Arms Army of the “West” Group of Forces, which operated in the Boriv and Lyman directions, lost 6,410 people killed, missing and captured, as well as 5,712 wounded.
“The Western Group of Forces failed to capture any of the main settlements in its area of responsibility — Kupyansk, Borova, and Lyman — in 2025,” analysts pointed out the result of Russian efforts, which cost such losses.
The occupiers also suffered significant losses on less priority areas of the front in eastern and southern Ukraine for Moscow.
Thus, the “South” group of troops, which operated in the tactical area of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and in the Siversk direction, lost a total of 32,740 people , while the 3rd Combined Arms Army (former 2nd AK “LPR”) in the Siversk area lost 13,055 soldiers, which is the largest figure in the group of troops.
“The Southern Group of Forces has made minimal progress since the capture of Toretsk in June 2025,” ISW recalled.
The “East” group of troops, responsible for the eastern part of the Zaporizhia region and the Velikomykhailiv direction, lost 38,011 people. At the same time, the 5th combined arms army, responsible for the Russian advance into the Dnipropetrovsk region and its territory, lost 16,980 servicemen : the highest figure in this group of troops.
“Combat operations in the Dnipro Group of Forces area of operation, which includes the Kherson direction and western Zaporizhia region, remain relatively unsystematic amid Russia’s ongoing efforts to restore the front line in western Zaporizhia region, where the Dnipro Group of Forces suffered 13,243 casualties,” analysts noted.
Will colossal losses stop Russia?
Russian insider sources indicated that from January 1 to September 15 of this year, the Russian Ministry of Defense recruited 292,000 new recruits : on average, 31,600 people sign contracts every month.
At the same time, according to leaked data published by the “I Want to Live” project, from January to August the occupation army lost about 281,550 people , or an average of 35,193 people per month.
” Russia ‘s 2025 casualty figures appear somewhat higher than Russia’s current monthly recruitment figures, but Russia’s casualty figures have been declining over the past four months. The Russian General Staff may assume that casualty rates in Ukraine will continue to decline if Russian forces can improve their ability to withstand the impact zone, and this reasoning may explain why Russia is reportedly beginning to build a strategic reserve for future deployments,” ISW noted.
Analysts recalled their previous estimates of a certain decrease in the level of occupier losses in the summer of 2025 compared to the fall or spring of 2024 , when they managed to advance at a somewhat lower cost. ISW sees this partly as the fact that the occupiers focused on using UAVs to block Ukrainian logistics in rear areas during this period.
“Russia has proven its ability to recruit enough people to cover losses in Ukraine over the past three years, perhaps starting to build a strategic reserve, and the Kremlin is unlikely to abandon operations in Ukraine or slow down as long as Russia can continue to sustain such losses ,” ISW summarized.
As OBOZ.UA wrote, ISW previously stated that Russia is accelerating its information campaign to prepare for a possible war with NATO.
Experts analyzed the Kremlin’s actions and suggested what exactly was behind them.
Basically, nothing has changed. The roach army is still made up of brainless meat puppets, led by corrupt potato generals, fighting for a lost cause.
Its nice that the ISW can confirm their numbers are very similar to UAF numbers, it gives them more credibility.