03/20/2026
The Ukrainian Defense Forces have recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction. At the same time, the defenders of our state are effectively restraining the advance of the Russian invaders.
This has left the Russian command facing several dilemmas, including the likely effectiveness of the enemy’s planned spring-summer offensive. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on the situation.
The defense forces presented the occupiers with a dilemma
Recent Ukrainian advances in the Oleksandrivka direction and the continued success of Ukraine’s defensive lines in containing the advance of Russian troops have forced the Russian military command to face competing tactical and operational dilemmas on the battlefield.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets wrote on March 19 that Russian troops do not have enough forces to simultaneously capture Orikhiv in the western part of Zaporizhia Oblast and advance towards the city of Zaporizhia from the south in a single offensive .
Mashovets noted that the Ukrainian defensive line along the Kinska River, which flows through Orikhiv , and recent Ukrainian advances in the Oleksandrivka direction, which are distracting Russian forces from efforts in the Orikhiv area from the east, are preventing Russia from capturing the city.
According to the observer, Russian troops will likely have to transfer reinforcements from the Kherson direction to carry out such efforts in the west of Zaporizhia region. After all, the Russians are trying to simultaneously advance on the belt of fortresses, attack Dobropillya and Kupyansk, and create a “buffer zone” in the north of Kharkiv and Sumy regions.
Mashovets noted a week earlier that Russia’s offensive on Dobropillya would force Russian troops to redirect resources from efforts to capture the Ukrainian fortified belt to significantly reinforce the exhausted 51st Combined Arms Army (the former “1st Army Corps of the DPR”) and the 2nd Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces in the area.
The observer also believes that Russian forces cannot use a hypothetical mobilization to quickly build up human resources for such efforts, as they lack time to prepare recruits for a summer offensive .
ISW believes that the competing dilemmas that Ukraine has imposed on the Russian military command have likely disrupted Russia’s preparations for their spring-summer 2026 offensive .
Thus, according to Mashovets, there are currently no reliable reports of the redeployment of significant formations by Russian troops to the 58th Army’s zone of operations west-southwest of Orekhov. Without this, it is difficult to imagine the Russians conducting a major offensive on Zaporizhia in the spring or summer.
Russian troops faced a dilemma due to the successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Oleksandrivka direction: ISW assessed the situation. Map
Mashovets reported that Russian troops are massing infantry southwest of Orekhov for offensive efforts against the city and against Novopavlivka (slightly northwest of Orekhov), but this buildup is insufficient, given the occupiers’ lack of gains in the west and northwest.
A spokesman for the Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kramatorsk (Konstantynivka) direction reported on March 19 that the intensity of Russian attacks in this direction is relatively low , and that Russian troops have not been able to achieve even a tactical advance northeast of Kostantynivka by the “deadlines” set by Moscow – March 10 (for a wedge between Maisky and Markov) and March 15 (for capturing the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal in this area).
The spokesman noted that Ukrainian troops do not observe a large concentration of Russian heavy equipment in the Kramatorsk direction, which could indicate that Russia is preparing for an offensive.
” Russia’s inability to achieve even a tactical advance to seize advantageous starting positions in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area for the expected spring-summer 2026 offensive against the Ukrainian fortress belt directly undermines Russia’s ability to achieve significant successes in the expected offensive,” the ISW concluded.
As OBOZ.UA reported, ISW previously stated that the occupiers have focused on cutting off the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and are testing alternatives to Starlink.
Analysts also explained what is behind Gerasimov’s statements about Russia’s “achievements” on the battlefield . The Russian Chief of General Staff recently came out with highly exaggerated data about the “advancement” of the occupiers and continues to pass off the capture of small villages as “epochal victories.”
Is the mafia army so corroded that it is crumbling? Undeniably, at least certain front sectors are indeed quite brittle.