The morning missile attack by the Russian aggressor on Ukraine became the most massive in recent times. The enemy had clearly been preparing for it for a long time, accumulating means of defeat. It launched 210 strike units, including 120 missiles and 90 Shahid-type drones. A fairly wide range of missile weapons was used for this: “Zircon”, “daggers”, Kh-101, Kh-59/69, Kh-22/Kh-31P, “calibres” and “Iskanders”.
Ukrainian defenders managed to shoot down 144 “gifts” – 102 missiles and 42 UAVs.
As expected, the enemy primarily attacked the energy infrastructure in order to provoke a blackout and create a lot of problems for Ukrainians at the start of the heating season. Actually, something like this was predicted quite a long time ago, in particular by officials, so the blow should not have come as a surprise.
Two points attract attention. The first: despite the fact that the occupiers have been carrying out energy strikes since the fall of 2022, they are still quite effective. The measures taken by the government to improve the survivability of substations and other similar facilities have proven to be ineffective. Actually, according to “Dumska”, the construction of many protective structures on them stopped last year and for an unknown reason did not resume.
The second: while maintaining a fairly high level of damage to cruise missiles, the Ukrainian air defense began to cope with the “martyrs” worse. This was demonstrated not only by today’s attacks, but also by a series of previous attacks. If in 2023 it was possible to shoot down up to 90% of drones, now – less than half. What is it connected with? I think several factors worked here. On the one hand, the enemy is constantly improving its drones, learning to bypass the boundaries of air defense, overload and deceive it. On the other hand, the processes of mass transfer of the personnel of “rear” units to the front line could not but affect (and, according to our data, did affect) air defense, primarily its low-tech part – mobile groups, where fighters are not required to have such qualifications as, say, in anti-aircraft missile units, which gives rise to the illusion of their lower value. But mobile groups are the main means of combating “martyrs”!
What’s next? I’m afraid the strikes will continue with the same intensity, if not more. The adversary is clearly counting on slack from the West, some proposals from the newly elected US president, and is raising the stakes on the eve of the big diplomatic game. Well, the task of Ukraine in such conditions is to continue the struggle. We must endure this marathon and win. And we will win!
Author — Viktor Bosnyak, military columnist of “Dumska”
DEATH TO THE RUSSIAN OCCUPIERS!
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