5/14/2026

The Russian economy ended the first quarter of 2026 with a contraction and dragged Belarus along with it.

According to the results of the first quarter, the Belarusian economy shrank by 0.4%, the Russian one by 0.3%. Both countries went into 2026 with optimistic forecasts: Minsk expected growth of 2.8%, Moscow – by 1.3%. The first quarter buried these expectations.

The situation was worsened by the Russian monetary authorities’ fight against inflation. The Central Bank of Russia raised the discount rate, which sharply increased the cost of loans for business and industry. The result was a slowdown in production in an already weak economy.

Because Belarus is so tied to the Russian market, it is feeling the crisis along with its neighbor – and without any choice of its own. The ambitious five-year growth plan of 15% now looks like a fiction. Instead, the country is threatened with stagflation: the economy is falling, prices are rising.

This combination is already affecting the wallets of Belarusians. Last year, the Polish grocery basket cost only 8% more than the Belarusian one, while a few years ago the gap was 30%. If the trend continues, Belarusian stores may become more expensive than Polish ones.

It is significant that even the end of the war will not give Russia a quick recovery – the structural problems are too deep. And for Belarus, the consequences may be even more painful: while Russia “feeds” the Belarusian economy during the war, after it it will look for what to take from there. First of all – human capital and a share of the Belarusian market, displacing local business in favor of Russian.

https://szru.gov.ua/news-media/news/rosiiska-retsesiya-tyahne-bilorus-na-dno