Russian forces’ ongoing efforts to advance on the Ukrainian city of Avdiyivka have hit a roadblock, with the desired swift breakthrough proving elusive, U.S-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War or ISW has said in its latest report on the situation in Ukraine.
ISW said the failed Russian assault on the frontline Ukrainian-held city raises questions about the next steps in Russia’s campaign.
Russian troops resumed offensive operations in an attempt to encircle Avdiyivka on Oct. 15, but failed to make significant progress, seemingly encountering a slowdown in their operations in the area. More than 15 Russian assaults near Avdiyivka, as well as to the northwest and southwest of the town, were successfully repelled by Ukrainian forces, the Ukrainian military’s General Staff has reported.
ISW has been unable to verify claims made by Russian sources regarding the advancement of occupation forces in the region. There is also a lack of geolocated video evidence confirming any significant Russian achievements. Even Russian sources themselves have conceded that, as of Oct. 15, Russia’s advances near Avdiyivka have substantially diminished compared to earlier days, describing the latest developments as minor.
Notably, a Russian “war correspondent” admitted that Ukrainian troops still control the Avdiyivka coking plant, contradicting prior Russian claims of its occupation.
Both Ukrainian military observers and Russian sources confirm that Russian forces have fallen short of their desired immediate breakthrough toward Avdiyivka. Their advance has come with heavy casualties, and it appears to be slower than anticipated.
Vitaliy Barabash, Head of the Avdiyivka City Military Administration, disclosed that on Oct. 12, Russian forces launched assaults with air support on multiple fronts around the settlement. However, on Oct. 15, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that fighting was concentrated near only six populated areas.
Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesperson for the Tavria Task Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, also noted on Oct. 14 that the pace of Russian offensive actions near Avdiyivka had slowed. Reportedly, Russian forces have lost over 300 units of military equipment and 3,000 personnel since the intensification of offensive actions in the area on Oct. 9.
ISW analysts believe that Russia’s current operations in the Avdiyivka region, marked by intense artillery and airstrikes, may be aimed at exhausting Ukrainian forces. They consider it improbable that Russian forces will achieve a substantial breakthrough or isolate the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Avdiyivka in the immediate future. Achieving such large-scale advances would require a significant and prolonged commitment of personnel and resources by the occupiers.
There is a noticeable shift in Russia’s objectives, with efforts to downplay their initial goals in the Avdiyivka offensive. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin described Russian forces as being engaged in “active defense” rather than “active combat actions,” as previously reported. This change in rhetoric suggests a lowering of expectations regarding a significant advance in the Avdiyivka area.
The Russian information space has also toned down its initial optimism about the prospects of Russia’s offensive around Avdiyivka. Initially, Russian “war correspondents” made maximalist and unconfirmed claims about occupiers advancing more than 10 kilometers. However, these claims are now being reevaluated, with reports of difficulties in the advance and a decrease in the pace of offensive operations around the town.
Looking ahead, Russian forces are expected to continue their offensive operations around Avdiyivka, according to ISW. While the pace has slowed, these operations will remain a threat to Ukrainian forces in the region, even if a decisive breakthrough or encirclement of Avdiyivka is unlikely. ISW analysts warn that any reduction in the tempo of Russian offensive actions may be a result of a temporary adjustment in the tactical situation, and in the coming days, Russia may intensify efforts to encircle Avdiyivka.
Ukrainian military observers have observed a significant concentration of Russian forces on the front between Avdiyivka and Donetsk. This force includes units from the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 11th Rifle Regiment, and has already undertaken concerted offensive actions, surpassing most attacks in this stage of the conflict. The sustainability of these offensive operations depends on Russian commanders’ willingness to bear relatively high costs.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continue offensive actions near Bakhmut and the western part of Zaporizhzhya Oblast. They have made slight progress to the south of Bakhmut, and geolocated images show advancements near Klishchiyivka. Ukrainian officials have yet to comment on advances along the Robotyne-Novoprokopyvka-Verbove line.
In conclusion, the situation in the Avdiyivka region remains fluid, and both sides appear to be weighing their options as they navigate this volatile and ongoing conflict.
“ISW analysts warn that any reduction in the tempo of Russian offensive actions may be a result of a temporary adjustment in the tactical situation, and in the coming days, Russia may intensify efforts to encircle Avdiyivka.”
Any reduction in tempo might also be the result of the orcs having no hardware left, and suffering enormous losses. You don’t just replaced 300 vehicles and 1000s of dead orcs.
Talking of dead orcs. Here is a short video of how russians treat their injured, not exactly showing comradeship.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1713285502286115184?s=20
I was thinking the same thing. But, intensifying their efforts is one thing, having a chance to reach their goal is quite another. I give them a chance equal to an ice cube surviving in hell.
“Notably, a Russian “war correspondent” admitted that Ukrainian troops still control the Avdiyivka coking plant, contradicting prior Russian claims of its occupation.”
Wow. So, mafia land has reduced its expectations again. They went from Ukraine in a week, to Donbas, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia, but have only portions, and then got a bloody face for Bakhmut, and now they can’t even take a coking plant.
Putler has given Shoigu until December 31st to capture all territory up to the admin borders of Donbas. He didn’t say which year. 🤣
🤣🤣🤣