Jay in Kyiv

Evidence from missile debris recovered after Friday’s attack on Kyiv indicates that Russia has largely burned through its missile stockpiles. Some of the missiles used were manufactured only weeks ago, suggesting Moscow is firing weapons almost as soon as they leave production lines.
Russian military bloggers are increasingly frank about the situation. They warn that Ukraine may soon be inflicting losses of up to 50,000 Russian troops per month and acknowledge that Russian forces are suffering casualty rates approaching 80 percent in some sectors.
At the same time, Russia’s logistical and economic systems are visibly deteriorating. Three more Russian shadow fleet tankers are in distress in the Mediterranean. Across Russia, cities are experiencing power outages amid freezing temperatures, driven by corruption, neglected infrastructure, and lack of maintenance. In the Saratov region, residents report having no heat and are publicly appealing to authorities for help.
Ukraine continues to strike Russian oil and gas infrastructure in the Black Sea, further tightening pressure on energy revenues. Inside Russia, even critical services are breaking down: a hospital in the Kursk region is reportedly near collapse, with staff openly begging authorities to intervene.
Meanwhile, Russian influence operations continue abroad. American pro-Russian propagandists based in Portugal are actively pushing Kremlin narratives on YouTube, while Russian-backed Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán escalates political attacks against Ukraine.
Taken together, these developments point to a system under mounting strain—military, economic, and social—where shortages, decay, and desperation are becoming harder to conceal.