Sept 21

Russian Degradation.

Russian forces are being depleted and degraded all along the front lines in Ukraine. In the east Russia pours poorly trained, badly armed conscripts across fields covered by prepared, UA artillery.

It was reported this week that Russian authorities have ordered 250,000 death certificates which closely aligns with western intelligence estimates of 265,000 Russian deaths. Where Ukraine has penetrated first line of defences they are finding areas in the second line that are unmanned.

Recently, it has become clear that in Crimea, Ukrainian attacks have degraded the Russian air defences so much that drones are managing to strike communications, logistical supplies and headquarter groups with relative ease. At the same time the number of drones and missiles that Russia can respond with is reduced weekly. Russia still concentrates most of its efforts on random civilian target and the grain supplies out of Ukraine.

Russia’s navy finding themselves vulnerable to air and marine drones, and land based anti-ship missiles, struggle to function in the Black Sea and are withdrawing further east.

In the south UA advances are bringing strategically vital pinch points like Tokmak in range of 155mm artillery which further depletes the Russian ability to maintain defences. Taking Tokmak will cut the land bridge supply route, and Kerch Bridge will inevitably be hit again in the near future.

Inside Russia, anti-Putin partisans and UA special forces are successfully destroying aircraft on the ground and fuel supplies.

In summary:

Weakened ground to air defences, reduced airpower, inadequate manpower, poor communications, insufficient logistical supply and a fear that routes of retreat will be cut soon, mean that Russian soldiers are looking forward to a lonely and deathly cold winter.

Slava Ukraini!

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Robin Horsfall