26 January 2026
Russian entrepreneurs don’t believe they can overcome inflation, according to a survey of businesses conducted by the Central Bank. “When formulating business plans for 2026, participants in the survey assume, on average, an annual inflation rate of 9.3%,” the Central Bank writes.
This is slightly lower than a year ago, when companies projected a 10.7% price increase in 2025 in their business plans, but significantly higher than official inflation, both current and projected. Rosstat estimated inflation last year at 5.6%, while the Central Bank forecasts 4-5% for this year.
Nearly 15,000 companies from all sectors participated in the survey, which was conducted from January 1st to 20th. 6,700 responded to the question about inflation in their business plans. Those who did not respond were primarily small and micro-enterprises, “who do not use this parameter in their business planning or find it difficult to estimate due to high uncertainty,” the Central Bank commented.
Utilities and mining companies included the lowest inflation in their business plans (around 7%), while trade, construction, and service sector companies included the highest (around 10%). Car dealerships included the largest price increase at 10.4%. Retail companies included an average inflation rate of 9.5% in their business plans.
Business inflation expectations have been rising for four months in a row since the VAT increase was announced this year, according to Central Bank surveys.
In January, the balance of responses to the question of whether a company plans to raise prices increased from 25.2 to 30.1 points—higher than at the last inflation peak in late 2024 and the highest since April 2022. Businesses attribute the rise in price expectations, among other things, to the increased tax burden, the Central Bank notes.
The regulator notes that the rate of price growth expected by businesses over the next three months continues to increase. In January, it reached 10.4% year-on-year, up from 8.5% in December. This is close to the levels seen at the end of 2024 (10.6% in December 2024, 10.8% in January 2025). Agricultural businesses expect the lowest price growth (3.8%), while retailers expect the highest (15.7%).
Price growth is in full swing. According to Rosstat, they increased by an average of 1.72% in the first 19 days of January. Businesses, in turn, are raising their selling prices. In January, price growth accelerated both across the economy as a whole and in almost all sectors, with the exception of mining, according to Central Bank monitoring.
However, the economic slowdown and low demand are preventing Russian businesses from raising prices as much as they would like to offset rising costs. This, along with staff shortages, has been a source of complaints from a number of agricultural companies, according to the Central Bank. Analysts believe the surge in inflationary sentiment in businesses is a reaction to the VAT increase.
The population’s inflation expectations are also not declining. In December, they rose from 13.3% to 13.7%, and over the past year, they fluctuated between 12.6% and 14%.
Companies expect high price pressure from 2026, comment analysts at Tverdye Digit. Elevated and unanchored inflation expectations among businesses indicate persistent inflationary risks, the Central Bank notes, promising to take this factor into account when making monetary policy decisions.
“Companies expect high price pressure from 2026, comment analysts at Tverdye Digit. Elevated and unanchored inflation expectations among businesses indicate persistent inflationary risks, the Central Bank notes, promising to take this factor into account when making monetary policy decisions.”
Your options are quite limited when the economy is being taken to the ICU.